The Rick Schwartz Domain Name and Traffic Blog: RicksBlog.com – Home of The Domain King®

Morning Folks!!

The new gTLD's have a very tough road to cross. The sharp ones have already thought of this. Then many have not. So let me pose the question and see what the answers are. What happens to a new gTLD when all the domains that are registered are only to domainers and there is not an end-user in sight? What happens?? Tulip Festival?

The reason .com is a success is from the approximately 120 million registrations, probably 80-100 million of them are registered by individual end users worldwide. Tens of Millions of end users. Matter of fact, my prediction is .com will have more end-user registrations in one day than 700 new gtld's combined have in a day, week.......

My point is these gTLD owners must walk a very fine line or they risk collapse. Another risk of collapse I should say because I have shown pitfall after pitfall after pitfall. Huge pitfalls and  a dynamic difference from what happened with .com. The pitfall is much deeper and more damaging if you have not thought of it.

I think some will get in trouble pretty fast when they don't see registrations flying in and when they do, it will be domainers. Which devil do you want to deal with first because they are both likely scenarios that many will have to deal with? How does an extension survive in the long run if 100% of your base is domainers? And on the other hand. How does an extension survive in the long run if  your base is not domainers?

Worse than all this is many of these gTLD operators are not financially prepared to make a difference. They could not even afford to hire professional domainers to consult with. They have virtually no advertising budget to advertise with. It is stunning to watch.

So we know once this race starts some 20 new extensions will come out each week. That is 4 per business day. Really? I don't recall a "spectacle" like this ever to have happened before. Maybe they can create a frenzy. Maybe they can't. Chaos for sure.

Are they anticipating the elbows flying in this crowded field? I could come and make a list of so many pitfalls that have never been discussed internally by some of these companies. So when they go into battle the marketplace, they could get whooped! I see it less with the domainer based outfits because they have a knowledge base the others just don't have but the carcusses of the others has the potential to impeded and derail everyone. Like a train wreck. Like a multi car pileup and you just happen to be caught in the middle due to no fault of your own.

We'll see. But it's tough to win the battles you don't see and come sneaking up behind you. The battles some are not armed to fight. The battles and battles and battles before we even get to the main battle of Need, Want, Desire.

Rick Schwartz

Afternoon Folks!!

Ocean, River, Lake, Pond, Puddle. Pick which one you want to aim for.

Hint: There is Pigeon Shit in the puddle. So pay attention if you want to avoid. One extra word can be the difference between a 6 figure domain and a worthless domain. I see it all day long.

So verbs and adjectives LIMIT your audience but at the same time TARGETS your audience. Target too much, you have a puddle or maybe just a dried up hole. Here is the recipe for the happy medium.

So here is a real world example of targeting and limiting.

HallofShame.com is universal.

It may not be the ocean of Shame.com for example, but it is a universal domain that is targeted and you know you are going to see some bad behavior when you get there. And in time can become subdomains to include different subjects, industries and companies etc.

What I did not do is use DomainHallofShame.com which would have been much more targeted, but much more limited when we are trying to hit a wider audience. Plus, I already have that ability. Add one more word and you are at worthess.

In each case you must decide who you are aiming for. In this case I am trying to vault over the walls of a POND that would be DomainHallofShame.com. What I am trying to do is jump into the RIVER because the River goes places. It has greater circulation than a pond. It travels. Sometimes you only want to be in that pond. And that is fine. KNOW THE DIFFERENCE! Many do not.

In my case the River may be better than the ocean. That is what targeting is about but you must have a target audience and they don't go to puddles and dried up holes. I could have also had DomainNameHallofShame.com or Domainnameshallofshame.com. Each one gets increasingly further away, harder to remember, less traffic and so on. On the other hand owning those combos can't hurt if you have a business. But that is the extent of it and the value is severely limited.

This is a 3 word domain that just happens to work because it means something. It is a known phrase. It has already been advertised and sold to the public before I ever entered the picture. Something most domains and most new gTLD's won't have the luxury of.

Now I have a running start and all I have to do is BRAND. Yes Brand. Not selling. I have nothing to sell. I have something to brand. Something the startup guys need to learn the difference about. If THEY are busy branding they are busy going out of business because they CAN'T sell. If they COULD sell, they would be busy selling because that way they make money and grow. Branding means you got  a bag of shit and the only way you can make it is trying to be cool. Good luck with that.

Point is, if you approach it from left field you may end up in left field. These are the basic building blocks I and most other successful domainers use and you can reject at your own peril. Most do. I can only put it out there.

AdjectiveKEYWORD.com

VerbKEYWORD.com

NounKEYWORD.com

DescribeKEYWORD.com

LetterKeyword.com (i or e)

NameKeyword.com

LocationKeyword.com

That is the foundation I use.

Rick Schwartz

Morning Folks!!

After the great reception we had at last weeks inaugural show (which of course we did not know at the time) I asked Michael Cyger if he would like to do the show LIVE at T.R.A.F.F.I.C.? He immediately agreed. It was a no brainer and it was inspired by Joao that made the following comment.

"For people that still think Traffic is expensive, this is just a sample (and i really mean SAMPLE) of what happens at Traffic. It was the best thing i have ever done in my entire domaining life and believe me, for a portuguese guy it is not cheap at all to go there, but it is also priceless…so GO!"

And of course that is just one dimension of what we do at TRAFFIC. The formula is not based around the seminars even tho they are priceless and have the top domainers in the world on stage similar to what you saw on the show. We mix it up with different folks and different subjects and get a lot of points of view. QUALIFIED points of view. But just as important if not more is that the shows are based on breaking bread together and having One on One time as well as many different Group Times. We wrap that up with receptions, parties and Networking events and package it in a Ritz-Carlton smack dab on the Atlantic. But breaking bread together in different type settings is the glue that makes TRAFFIC the show it is.

Signups are far outpacing last years show and for the first time in YEARS, we expect a full sellout to the point we may have to stop selling tickets a week before the show starts. Our capacity is about 385 and the reason we are moving to a larger venue next year.

Further evidence that things are rebounding. It is a very aggressive atmosphere out there right now and this is a very serious business season. Very serious. Folks like JC Penny are fighting for survival. If they don't turn it around or get acquired, we could see one of the largest store closings in American History at some point.

But I got a bit off course. Today's show was just posted here. Hope you enjoy it. We enjoyed doing it!

Rick Schwartz

Afternoon Folks!!

A little "Birdie" sent this to me a few minutes ago and thought it interesting.

"The current challenge faced by both porn companies and Web startups is how to differentiate themselves. Since there’s only so much you can do, the answer for both industries has been to pursue increasingly small and bizarre niches."

Sound Familiar?

There are a number of parallels the writer of this article articulates and they have some validity.

Until folks look at the lessons the porn industry has learned , they are ripe to repeat their mistakes and likely a much more expensive lesson. Just remember one thing as I see it being in both places.....Adult circa 1997 and mainstream circa 2013 have yet to intersect. But we are getting VERY CLOSE to that happening. It COULD happen in the next 12 months and I have NEVER said that before. Once that happens, this industry will be transformed and folks will never look back.

Rick Schwartz

Morning Folks!!

Can the New gTLD's Have a Domino Collapse? That is a very provocative question but does not delegitimize me asking it? At what point does the weight of other extensions that have not done well weigh so much on what is coming that the entire thing collapses like 1000 dominos lined up. When you add the weight of dozens of .mobi's and .travels. When you add the weight of all the gTLD's that have already been canceled. When you add the weight that even a GREAT gTLD could be tainted by the loss of the others.

Does it matter if .mobi has 1,000,000 domain registrations? Does that make it a better investment or is it still a loser as it stands today? Who cares if they make money at the registry level? They are no factor in domain investing or even domain flipping. It has NOTHING to do with YOUR LIFE!

And I don't mean to pick on .mobi but that is without doubt the clearest example so far. With great fanfare. They had their moment in the sun.They make $$$ with the sunrise and all, but face it, domain investors got caught holding the bag. And that is ok. That is what speculation is about. But other extensions DO have a more active aftermarket. .TV, .INFO, .ME. So there are lessons to be learned.

So in the event that the first 100 new extensions came to market and fell flat, what exactly would that spell for the other 900? It does not help their efforts it hinders their efforts. Even a winner could be weighed down by the sinking of others. And some are gonna sink right to the bottom.

So in that event, I would think some would be forced to even further delay a new extension rollout as they could go down with the tide. Let me be clear, I am not saying this will happen. But I do see it as ONE of the possibilities. Who goes FIRST could play a huge part in how this all unfolds. What if the first 5 rollouts are DOGS?

Food for thought. Never discount things that are possible until that threshold has been passed. .Mobi did not make the cut. Tebow did not make the cut. Both were surrounded by excitement and all the rest. But at the end of the day, the road has yet to lead either where they "Intended" to go. Tebow is still alive, .mobi is not alive as a domain investor extension today. So who cares how many are registered. They are not being used commercially and that is the KEY to value. No billboards, no TV, No Radio, no ADVERTISING DOLLARS at the end-user level. That's the KEY to growth. Not a bunch if domain investors buying TULIPS! If you don't know the Tulip Story, go LEARN IT right now!! RIGHT NOW. I sure have talked about it enough over the years. THAT is the most likely scenario at best.

Need, want desire. If nobody needs, wants or desires an extension and the few they sell are to investors looking for the 2nd coming and few if any are used commercially in advertising, how exactly does it get the oxygen to survive? Especially for investors. In OUR LIFETIME!?

.Com took off for a reason. The value of .com took off for a reason. How much did end users spend promoting .mobi last year?? THAT is where the value STARTS!

Reasons are missing in this new equation. They are just missing. And when you try to copy a recipe and the main ingredients are missing, what exactly do you have?

990 or more extensions could be very disappointed with their results regardless of their aspiring intentions. Some may not matter because with many new gTLD's then collectively they can operate and make money. But that is a different business than we are in.

.com did not happen overnight even with millions of registrations and many advertising the extension and little competition. A success on a new gTLD could take 10-20 years or more to manifest itself. Some folks think they can't plant a seed in the morning and have a tree in the evening. Maybe. 3 real or FAKE stories like that and the sheep will come a running.

But not to consider these things? Come on! This is MORE than possible given the evidence we already have. So those who have not thought about this scenario.....are they REALLY prepared? My question being in sales and marketing for so long is why would you not EXPECT it to happen? So if you don't expect something that is a possibility and that possibility arises and you are caught SURPRISED.......what happens then?

Rick Schwartz

Morning Folks!!

So my post yesterday morning is inadequate. It touches what I see, but it is oh so much bigger. It is the collective energy that is coming and WE are the BIG winners! 1000 NEW Divisions if not separate companies. They are going to make a LOT of NOISE!!

They are going to make noise in many ways. Some of it will be just that, noise. But thru that noise there will be some that have something or their something may benefit your .com as I have described here.

There is a TIDAL WAVE coming and it is going to make a direct hit on the domain industry. If it does not keep getting delayed. Each day of delay makes a company weaker not stronger. It costs money not to sell anything. But at some point that dam is gonna BURST and when it does, the landscape will never look the same again.

Bringing in Adam Dicker to help with T.R.A.F.F.I.C. is by design. We are preparing for what is to come. We have 2 venues capable of holding THOUSANDS of attendees. Besides the current domain investors an entire new generation of domain investors are all heading this way. The competition is going to be very interesting and it will be fierce and it will heat up from there. A lot of elbows in a small industry as this "Experiment" progresses.

So you are seeing the calm before the storm. And the only reason there is calm is because of the clusterf*ck that is delaying everything. In a perfect world you certainly would want to roll things out very soon. But looks like the delay will extend into 2014. I really do enjoy watching incompetence up close. Somethings are not well thought out and when that happens it blows up in their face. How could you not see this clusterf*ck 2 years away? I think I have been writing about it for 2 years and am glad others now see that there is no other word in the English language to describe it.

But after the clusterf*ck, IF we EVER  get to that point, then things are going to move very fast and the $$$ are going to fly! It will look like 2005 on steroids. This IS the calm before the storm and to be honest, the calm has a lot of things bubbling and brewing below the surface.

All I want to make perfectly clear is anyone reading this scared that their .com values are going to go down are not paying attention and are already reacting to noise that means nothing. Now WHY am I spending so much energy writing about this NOW? Because when the flood gates open, my voice will be drowned out by THOUSANDS of others. I need to be CLEARLY on record. If I stay true to what I see, I am also likely to have an entire new generation of people who don't like me. Sorry if my thoughts and vision does not match their agenda. REALITY trumps everything. Let the chips fall where they may and I am rooting for soe successes out there. The NOISE won't make them a success. END USERS, CONTENT and DOMAIN INVESTORS will decide their fate. MANY of those extensions may actually SNUB the domain industry thinking they can make their mark solely with end users. Good luck with that strategy.

I think the biggest unknown is how many extensions will collapse or be acquired before they collapse?

That said....I wish every new gTLD the greatest of successes. Your success is our success. Even if only 1 in 1000 works, the folks reading this blog will be on it. I won't hide which, if any, I think have a chance. The birdie in the mine for me is .web. I like .web but it could easily prove to be another .net. Should that happen, many others will simply collpase. And anyone that gets a .whatever and has a success and you own the .com version, you too have a success. It's coming!

Rick Schwartz

Morning Folks!!

You can see this coming a year away and you best be prepared for what is coming.

With close to 1000 new gTLD's to be sold and marketed they are all going to have to man their ships and that means collectively hiring THOUSANDS of people. Going to be very interesting how this all plays out . But make no mistake about it, within a year we are going to see a massive change in our small community. For starters, it is no longer going to be small. And it will be VERY different.

Some of you reading this will end up working for some of these companies. But please take a moment to imagine  what this will all look like and how that will change the industry we are in.Much will be good and much will not. You will have a full-time job just sorting out all that is coming.

Whether  you believe the gTLD's are going to fly or not there is going to be HUGE opportunity. It may or may not come in the way of investing in domains. The opportunities may look different. I invite ever new extension owner to come here and tell us what they see. What their vision is and why. I am more likely to buy into an extension that is well thought out and supported than one that is not. Just sayin'.

A crowded field is coming and some folks will be desperate. The delays are VERY costly. Each day that passes costs money. Weeks that pass cost more. But now we are talking months and I would not be surprised if it turned into a year or more or something very unexpected happens that plunges this entire thing into turmoil. Like a complete Clusterf*ck. Even Clusterf*cks can make you money or present great opportunity.

Rick Schwartz