The Rick Schwartz Domain Name and Traffic Blog: RicksBlog.com – Home of The Domain King®

Morning Folks!

Business in my mind starts with an assumption. An assumption comes with variables. The variables are the moving parts of the equation that can change things drastically. But you start out with certain numbers that are assumptions. Then what you can do is go back in time and fill in the blanks or update them as needed. How well do you know your Algebra? How long into the future do you look?? Minutes? Hours? Days? Weeks? Months? Years? Decades? For a lot of us we have visions in all those time periods. Visions, predictions, planning and expectations based on assumptions. Below is a post for 2007 looking forward. The single most important variable in that post and equation was the low unemployment rate. Through the eyes of 2007 I can go back into 2007 and adjust the variable and then a new assumption is updated, adjusted and born. But the birth of this side of the assumption becomes much stronger as actual data is substituted for those assumptions.

Last year I made some pretty outlandish comments. I wasn't even going to post it because I know the fallout. But hey, it's what I do. Things like your favorite restaurant will close down. Thinks like malls will start to close down. Only a crazy person would have taken me seriously. But that was what I saw. That is what I still see. Only thing different is now we are close enough to see the reality of it and the fallout and the comment is now believable when just a few months back it was not. It was seen as an 'Exaggeration' and worse or so many thought at the time. Do you still think that sounds so crazy or is that something that now looks like it could happen? Is about to happen? Is happening?

That conclusion was not being a visionary, it was taking a set of assumptions and seeing where it would lead to. But HUMAN NATURE prevents most from looking that far down the road and seeing things that seem ridiculous at the time. If I were to predict life as it actually unfolded and did it 5 years ago and got it 100% right, I still would have been put in a rubber room. Seeing things that far ahead only get you in trouble because human nature weighs in and folks can't handle things they don't see. That they don't understand. Human nature has an ugly side and human nature is fueled by other human nature. History proves this over and over again. History is where you look to get answers for the future. It's all there. It may be disguised, but it is all there. Once you learn how to read the history in disguise, add a little reality and you can see things pretty clearly. You can plan instead of being surprised. You can avoid by seeing the pitfall. You can triumph because you see great weakness that can turn into great strength.

Here is my update. We are SOOO SCREWED!. Oh yes, screwed and tattooed and the greatest transfer of wealth is occurring below our collective noses as I write this. The greatest robbery in the history of mankind. The greatest shift in reality the world has ever known or seen. That is before we even talk about the political instability that will get worse as the economics get worse. The problem is 'Where do you put the wealth?' The dollar is going to collapse and then melt and we are going to have inflation the likes of which we have never seen. Before you jump up and down and cheer the downfall of the dollar, let me predict it will wipe out the Euro and every other monetary instrument in the wake of what is to come. My $2 million dollar turtle for your 4 million euro lizard.

The entire world economy is akin to a ticking time bomb. Each day we get closer to the collapse, meltdown and fallout that is to come. Don't believe the experts, they have gotten nothing right yet. They are always 'Surprised' or 'Late to the scene' or they did not 'Expect'. They work from a best case scenario POV. Can't do that in business. You have to work on a 'Worst case scenario' and work inwards. I think experts are largely just guys that are unemployed or fired from their last job.

So what do you do with that info? Honestly, I have no idea and I hope what I see is wrong. What I do know or what I fear is that it will break down and get out of control. Gold works for the short term but it is really not a solution. How much are you willing to put in gold? If you have $1 million cash, how would you diversify? Whatever you do you MUST BE PREPARED to lose 80% of your value. Stop screaming!! Yes, I said 80%. Between runaway inflation which is coming to the world very soon, or crashing stocks, or a meltdown of the dollar or too many variables to list. So 20% gold, 20% currency, 20% stocks, 20% property, 20% misc and a meltdown could wipe out 4 out of 5 sectors just on the initial strike. A shell game like none other in the history of the world.

Now that is just a scenario if everything goes smooth. It does not include a host of other variables and have not even factored in an assumption. First we have the Swine flu which is now predicted to infect 1/3 of the world's population. Not too good for travel. Collapse. Then if you were listening to the news, North Korea just tested another nuke. Something could go terribly wrong there. Israel and Iran have a showdown coming in a future close and near to you. An attack worse than 9/11. What would that do for confidence? A corruption meltdown that sweeps governments around the world. Hell, I have barely scratched the surface. I could list so many more it will make your eyes spin. Never in HISTORY have we had so much turmoil and a world in danger of screwing itself.

Point is I have no idea at this point where this roller coaster is headed. It is a ride that is out of control. When the population of the world figures out that nobody whatsoever has any control of any sort, the reality and gravity of what we are about to go through will become apparent. Doom and gloom? Hell no. Reality at its best. Deal with reality. Hoping and wishing and crossing fingers won't save anyone this time. We are all going to be tested in ways we have yet to even think of. We have all been bullshitted in ways history will write about. A train wreck is on the way. Where on the train is the safest place? I still don't know but with Chase Bank now paying .01% interest rate, the dividends domains pays is worth a great deal. So we are lucky in that respect. But we are very vulnerable in every other aspect. The fallout of all this is just beginning. A tornado in slow motion is about to hit. Each day of each week of each month will be much worse. What you can do is stay tuned to life. Keep your nose close to the ground. Find opportunity. Look for safety. Have a plan 'B' and plan 'C' and don't be surprised for both plans to not work out.

The crime rate is rising. Desperation will set in. Robbery could get to an alarming rate. Courage is only found in commoners. Those responsible for our future have little courage, no backbone and their word is cast in wet cement and soon to disappear.

The high end housing market is about to meltdown. The high end homes on the ocean that were going for $12 Million are now going for $6 million and THERE ARE NO BUYERS even at that level. So what you are likely to see is even the wealthy walking away from mortgages. Why pay on a $10 million dollar mortgage when the house is worth only $5 Million and the costs in taxes and insurance is weighing you down? So when these folks walk away this will present an entire host of other unforeseen problems and local tax base in free fall.

So why this post now? Well when I read the post below the key variable in my assumption was we were at 5% unemployment. Now we will soon be closing in and then eclipsing 10% nationally with pockets of 25%. That's a big deal in the equation and that equation will get worse. What we are going through is akin to the world spinning off its axis. The wobble is off center. The wobble could easily become out of control. Those that think about this stuff and prepare for it will not get hurt as bad as those that laugh in the face of something certain to affect them. Time will prove these words true or not. But I certainly would trade the embarrassment of getting it wrong for waking up and have this crisis over and gone and get back to the future!

Have a GREAT Day!
Rick Schwartz

Here is the Direct Link to the actual post below which was written on December 20th 2007 long before the bailouts and the banking collapse. When a key variable changes (Unemployment) so does the equation.

Good Morning folks!!

2007 has been a great
year. The challenges came from every direction and we emerge stronger than ever and ready
to tackle 2008. It's still a couple weeks away but 2008 is already in full
swing. In the first few weeks of the year we will hear how the experts are surprised
about how strong online spending was. The experts are really no experts at all
or they would have predicted what is coming not reacting to it.

The same may be true of
the Presidential primaries that in the next few weeks may change the entire
picture as the nominees from each party emerge. In all my life I have never
seen a more interesting race and be prepared for some surprises. I have no idea how it will shake out. What are your thoughts?

2008 won't be without
its' challenges. The economy is in a bit of turmoil but unlike past economic
woes this time employment is very strong so the dynamics may be quite a bit
different. We are at a teeter totter point and I am not sure if we will
teeter or totter. We just might squeak through but not without some real pain
scattered through the economy. Then again it could get very ugly as we really
are in uncharted territory. The saving grace may be the Internet. But if the
folks begin to run scared and pull back, it will lead to a self fulfilling
prophecy and they will be responsible for their own undoing. In slowdowns you
don't pull back. You gun the engine and hope you can minimize the impact as
opposed to pulling back and let the tide be your destiny. You fight to stay
even or you lose very big.

Personally I am looking
forward to the coming shakeout. There will be all types of opportunities and
bargains spread throughout the business spectrum. Many things may manifest
themselves in an unpredictable manner. As Steve Forbes told us directly in
October, be prepared for a 'Roller coaster' of a ride. The key is having CASH to swoop down and score big.

Like many of you I am
going to unwind and enjoy the next few weeks. I will return in mid January
ready to go for 2008. Until then I invite you to go back and read my 52 posts
that I made in 2007. Most will pay you dividends the minute you read some of my
points and think about it. Even if you disagree, I force you to engage. I force
you to reconfirm. I force you to take a second look at something that you may
think complex and actually find out it is quite simple.

To get you started here
is a list compiled by someone as 5 of the top 100 domain blog posts this year.
I encourage you to read all my posts like they were chapters in a book. With
the exception of a handful they are all related and entwined.

The Line in the Sand

http://www.ricksblog.com/2007/04/the_line_in_the.html

Truth to power

http://www.ricksblog.com/2007/04/truth_to_power.html

The 'C' word
exposed:

http://www.ricksblog.com/2007/07/the-c-word-expo.html

How Madison Avenue let
corporate America down

http://www.ricksblog.com/2007/04/how_madison_ave.html

Domain 'type
ins' represent more eyeballs than American Idol

http://www.ricksblog.com/2007/04/domain_type_ins.html

Happy holidays, Merry Christmas, Happy
New Years, GOOD HEALTH to all and see you when there is something to say.

Have a GREAT day!!
Rick Schwartz

Morning Folks!!

We are all held hostage to “Human Nature.” Human nature is a prediction of a reaction by someone before it actually occurs. You know the reaction. It’s a knee jerk reaction that can usually be predicted with great accuracy. Someone spits in your face, you spit in theirs. An eye for an eye. Screw you! Screw you! Asshole! Asshole. He cuts you off when driving and you return the favor. Or if you think you are civil, you may just give them the finger.

We all have the ability to fight human nature. To throw human nature a curve ball and therefore get a different result. Human Nature is akin to gravity. It is very hard to defy gravity but we have learned to do just that with many things. It’s not easy. It’s a tough thing to LEARN how to do but once you learn you have the ability to do things that others cannot.

Here is an example. It’s a silly example. But it is also the one I remember more than any other in all my life. It taught me more than anything else. Really. From this simple story my life changed in a way that I don’t often share.

Back in the 1970’s and 1980’s and as recent as just a few years ago before they closed up, there was a deli in Miami Beach like no other. This place was a legend. Sometimes the wait to get in for breakfast was an hour long. Folks flocked from all over the country when they came to Florida for a place called the “Rascal House.” The stories of the history of the Rascal House alone are mind blowing. A lesson in business for all to learn. Google it. It will probably be there. But Wolfy Cohen was a legend in South Florida. His fingerprints were on many a business. But this post is not about the Rascal House nor the legend himself. This post is about “Stella” the waitress.

Stella was one nasty piece of work. Never a smile. I was not in the mood to deal with it. I was hungry and I just wanted to get my order and be done. Now I ate at the counter of this deli for many years. Dating back to about 1973. When I came home, everyone knew where to find me. Breakfast at the Rascal House. Sometimes as early as 5AM when they opened and even then there was a line to get in.

Well one morning Stella was taking care of me, or actually was not doing such a good job. We did not have words but the back and forth tone was not the best. In those days the breakfast special was 99 cents. For that I can’t even list here how much food they would give you. Danish, rolls, bagels, rye bread, three varietys of Danish. 3 varieties of bread. More stuff that I even forgot about. All for 99 cents. Most left a quarter tip and thought they were doing good. I always left $1 for my 99 cent meal. That was me. But then this one day we had both had enough of each other. I could have stiffed her. Most would. It would have been human nature. It was what I wanted to do as her overall attitude really pissed me off. Then I did something different. I fought that human nature reaction. Instead of stiffing her. Instead of just leaving my $1 customary tip, I left her a $5 bill and left.

The next time I came there, and every time I came there for the next 30 years, this waitress would see me come in and she would drop what she was doing and bring me my cup of coffee. She became the smiling “Stella'. Still with her less than warm demeanor with most, but the brightest smile imaginable for me. So that taught me a really great lesson in life. Trying to break the mold. Trying to defy Human Nature. It won’t work in every situation and some situations the middle finger still work just as well. Instead of reacting I just say something like sorry you are having such a bad day. I'd rather tell them to 'Fuck off' but what's the gain? But hey, we are all human and sometimes we fly off the handle. It goes with the territory. I have yet to meet a person that has never made an asshole of themselves at sometime. In this there are 2 groups. One group understands this and one group does not.

It’s okay to rub folks the wrong way sometimes. I have a phrase I use….”Time is my best ally.” When you speak freely and frankly it rubs many the wrong way. But in time that wrong rub takes on a different characteristic because fair minded folks see consistency and honesty and eventually a respect builds. Others are much more charming and personable. They get along with more people and make friends much more easily, but then they screw you at some point of their choosing. They leave you on the short end of the stick. Usually with your money in their pocket. But they are charming. So you excuse getting screwed over by them and continue on. Some will get screwed again and again. I have seen this phenomenon for the past 35 years. So which one has more credibility? Your good friend that takes advantage and screws your ass or a loud mouth like me that you can take at face value because I say what I think and sign my name to it? I may have a number of detractors out there. Most never met or even talked to me and few if any have done an actual business deal with me. That’s okay. But none of them can articulate a single deal that I ever did with them that went bad. It’s the thoughts that they can’t deal with. In time even they come to respect that a person has more value sharing a thought even when it is provocative than to be a wall flower and never rock the boat. The Internet comes down to one word. CHARACTER. Your character, my character is our reputation. Our legacy. Our words, thoughts and deeds. They live on long after the day is over. Einstein said: 'Laws alone can not secure freedom of expression;
in order that every man present his views without penalty there must be
spirit of tolerance in the entire population.' Good luck with that one. We live in an era of intolerance. An era that every word has to be politically correct. Folks have put themselves in a box and human nature is keeping them there.

I give folks a choice. I can tell them what they want to hear and be Mr. Popular…..or I can tell them how I really view a situation. Now when I am asked, I just give them the choice….'Do you want me to tell you what you want to hear or do you want to hear the truth as I see it?' Does not mean I am right but I figure I have no value in bullshitting somebody. But it is their choice. When I write, the choice goes away. But the value does not. The reactions are human nature and predictable. Seeking out others that can understand and defy human nature is an interesting experience. Folks that can understand playing the role of the 'Devil's Advocate' to find answers. Life is about doing great things. This era is about doing great things. Folks reading this have the resources and the smarts to take advantage of the world right now. To make fortunes. To create need and demand. The era is laced with opportunity. It is also laced with fear, with anger, with reacting in a predictable manner when human nature is in charge and you are not. This is not the time to be controlled by human nature. This is the time to fight human nature. This is the time to take the risk of a lifetime. This is the moment. This is the window and when it closes it will happen so quickly it will be hard to believe. Things are going to continue to be bad, but folks are now capitulating. They are giving up. They are facing reality and that is the foundation of the opportunity out there. Point is to defy Human Nature as much as you can and at the points where it can pay dividends. It may not be easy to do, but if you can conquer it, you can conquer the world.

Have a GREAT Day!

Rick Schwartz

Morning Folks!!
Let me put it bluntly, Europeans are not great risk takers. Ok, stop shouting at the screen. But regardless of the yelling, what I am saying really can’t be argued. It’s just a fact. Not all Europeans of course. But the masses. Even the masses of domainers.

So why do I say something like this? First I started saying this about 2 years back when the dollar was the weakest against the Euro. With such a discount you would have expected them to step up and get some bargains. Few did that. Very few.

Now with domain prices lower than at any time in the past 5 years or more and still a strong Euro, same result. I really can’t explain it. Yes, payouts are usually in dollars. But they don’t have to be. There are European programs and vendors as well. But little evidence they are changing from before.

Europe is still ripe when it comes to the net. And domains There is more opportunity here than in the USA where we have reached critical mass and then some. TRAFFIC Amsterdam will either be the break out point or it will prove what I say is true. There won’t be anything in the middle.

For years we have been asked to do a TRAFFIC in Europe. In a little over two weeks that will be a reality. TRAFFIC has done more shows in the last 14 months than any period ever. 3 continents. 3 corners of the world. 5 shows. So will Europe show up in mass? Is the European domain community really aggressive and looking to move to the next level? Like I said, risk taking is not high. Not sure why. Maybe just the renegade in us in the USA. Let me be clear, there are voids in the market here. I saw a number of businesses that I could open here and do very well. Some things are just not offered here. Some silly things. Silly things that could make someone a small fortune. Beats working for somebody else. One business idea is already in formation. Buying a product for $1 and selling it for $10 and having them lined up to get it. In a few months I will tell you about it. All I can say now is that I found a void and I found a market. The name of the game is to sell enough product fast enough so when the copycats come we are so far ahead that it really won't matter. Then just milk it until it becomes unprofitable. But 10x return is a GREAT place to start.

So when TRAFFIC in Amsterdam opens up in just 2 weeks what will be the story? Rick Latona has pulled out all the stops. Great speakers. New sponsors. An auction focused on cctld. All the things folks have clamored for. Or was it just clamor?

We are all about to find out. Hot air or real business? Oh stop yelling at the screen! If the shoe fits……..deal with it. I asked merchant after merchant about doing business on the web. I got a lot of empty stares. A lot of “I do not do that.” “My son handles that.” The web literacy rate by small business in the countries I visited is lower than I expected. So much to gain and so many not embracing it. That was the #1 thing that STUNNED me the most on my trip.

My job is to be aware. To notice differences. To question those differences. To try and understand those differences. Now this is not a personal reflection on the people. They were all great. I enjoyed talking to every single one. But to not notice the disconnect would have been impossible.

Many think IDN will be the answer. Maybe, maybe not. I see no evidence of that even with the predictions I have heard for year after year that next week, next month, in 3 months it will explode. Just like cctld's or dotcom not all have value. I see IDN as a limited market in limited countries. Now that does not mean some folks won't make millions with them. It does mean that if you don't know how to pick a great domain and don't know the difference between a great one and a worthless one that the extension or whatever does not matter. Geography counts! Buying power counts! Attidudes count! That does not mean failure. It means a crappy IDN, a crappy cctld has the same value as a crappy dotcom. Nah dah. A liability is a liability no matter the extension. Most domainers don't understand to this day what makes one domain have great value and another one worthless. A liability. Now this is not universal in Europe. Some countries are much more aggressive and progressive than others. Some countries may favor IDN or cctld. Buying power of that group is key. But the market is still a long ways from maturity. Germany is a leader. Other countries like the UK have found success. But many have not yet gotten there. They are literally years behind and that spells opportunity.

I wonder who owns more cctld’s? Europeans or Americans? Each country is different.You could
have every domain in the country of Somalia (yes I know this is not in
Europe) and not make a penny. You could have one domain somewhere else
and make a fortune. But I bet there are countries in which foreign folks own more domains than the folks that actually live there. I bet German domainers own the most. That is just a gut guess based on absolutely nothing. But the Germans come to all the USA shows in mass. Canada too. I can’t think of another country other than Australia with more representation. Seems like they too are risk takers. Risk takers. Folks, THAT is what it is all about. Taking a risk. Risk losing. Risk winning. Risk failure. Risk success. Risk what you believe in. But risk must be attached with reality.

So stop yelling at me and the screen. It is just a provocative post to provoke discussing. Discussion produces ideas. Produces solutions. Produces opportunity. Like they say, nothing personal, just business.

I am not for or against any extension. Any cctld. Any IDN. But I follow the MONEY and the MONEY decides who is right and when they are right. Success decides. Society decides. We don’t have the power to decide for them as much as we would like to. The only thing we decide is which action to take or not take. I am not asking for you to agree with me. Most won't. 99% won't. It is a position in life I deal with on a daily basis. My thinking is almost always against the grain. I simply just state a view from where I sit and what I see. I share that view and it would be much easier to hit the delete key and not deal with the fallout. So call me stupid for posting what I see. But that won't make you a single penny or give you a single success.

Have a GREAT Day!
Rick Schwartz.

Morning Folks!!

No question that business sucks everywhere. I talked to hundreds of merchants in the last 2 weeks in Europe and they all said it was not good. Yesterday at the Vatican there were people everywhere, but only a fraction of the usual crowd. The store owners were doing little business.

Then we went to look for some shoes. I saw a brand on the way here and I liked the look. So when I passed the Hogan Shoe Store I was excited. But the 6 Foot 5 inch door man would not let me in. I had to get in line behind 10 others. I had to wait 10 minutes to get in. The place was packed. The place was doing real business. Everyone was buying and everyone was walking out with big bags of shoes. It was not prime time either. It was 7:30 on Saturday night. Wonder what it was like at 3PM?? They closed the store and it was still wall to wall. Excitement creates sales. This place was exciting. The energy level was off the chart. They had sizzle AND the steak. A rare combo.

Recession? Depression? For many yes, but for Hogan, selling $300-$500 sneakers and walking shoes, business could not be much better. Why is this important? Because it proves that when you have products consumers want, no matter the times, they sell. Period.

I wrote before about the recession of the late 1970’s. It was much worse than now. Opportunities were much less. It was a different era. But General Motors came out with a new spiffy Camaro and Firebird and THAT was what ended the recession. People flocked to the dealers and bought those suckers for years. People buy what they want no matter what. So stop teasing us with 'Concept cars' and start making DREAMS instead of metal with 4 wheels. Morons are in charge and THAT is the reason we are here.

Look at Apple. If they announce a new iPhone is coming out, the line will be hours long. Recession? What recession? Maybe a recession in exciting new things to buy. Maybe a recession in other areas. But the best way to get out of a recession is exciting new products that people want to buy. That is the secret. They can have all the stimulus they want, but nothing trumps things that people want.

So there is a lesson here. Is Twitter having a recession? Facebook? Apple? Hogan? There numbers may have been better if times were good, but they are all doing one hell of a job.

Btw, notice many signs missing? Like the ones that won’t allow you to bring a drink in the store? Amazing how a good recession can make silly rules go away. Right now anything goes because many are getting to the desperation stage. I was waiting for somebody to throw me out or warn me not to do this or that. Never happened. It’s a buyers market and if you are a buyer it sure is a lot of fun.

The point of each of these posts is to show the dire situation we are in on one hand and finding the silver lining on the other. If you are reading this, I am telling you that times have NEVER BEEN BETTER to do business. To make business. To share ideas and take risk. NEVER better. But for those that are trapped in a bunker mentality, they will surely pay a price IF they survive. It’s just a tale of two minds. Two outlooks. Two approaches. This is a time to steam roll the competition. To put folks out of business. To buy their business. This is the time. Folks it does not get better than this. Talent is out of work and available for the first time in some 20 years. That alone makes for a great opportunity to start and build companies. This is a great time to approach companies that last year would have laughed in your face and not given you the time of day. This is the time like no other. It may even get better. A bad summer is a GREAT thing. Many merchants are holding on for the summer season, if that does not materialize, it is over for many of them. The rest are waiting for the Fall and Christmas seasons. Again, if it does not materialize, it is going to be a carnage the likes of which none of us have ever seen.

Many can hold on through 2009, but if 2010 comes and we are still in this mess, it is over for them as well. But Hogan, Apple and companies that produce what people want, will survive, thrive and probably expand by buying weaker companies that they can transform.

Have a GREAT Day!
Rick Schwartz

Morning Folks!!

After visiting Naples and Capri in Italy, Istanbul, Kusadasi and Ephesus in Turkey, Athens, Santorini and Mykonos in Greece, I am back in Rome and on the way to the Vatican. I have visited less than 10% of the world. However about 50% of the world I have no desire to go see. So that makes it about 60%. But like Dorothy said….”There is no place like home” no matter where “Home” is. Had I not travelled so extensively around the USA when I was young, I might have the desire to travel more often now. To me, being home is a great gift. A gift I could not afford for many years. Home was a hotel, suitcase and a car back then.

My takeaway is that even with the country codes that are very popular, many also have their .com version of their domain. Any successful business also wants to secure their dotcom even if they only promote their country code domain locally. There is still a lot of room for Internet growth and acceptance in these countries.

While others sight see I am much more comfortable talking to the local merchants at each place. The international language of business breaks all barriers. In a word, business is not so good. They all anticipate the summer season, but are also worried it may not materialize to the numbers they need to make a living.

As a traveler, the downturn is a good thing. Upgrades to suites is now common. Service is better than ever because folks are scared and they want to keep their jobs. That turns mediocrity into superior service.

The ship I was on was full. But there are reasons for that. First, it is the newest ship afloat. Secondly, the line we use is already known for great service and great food. But while our ship was full, the ships we encountered were largely empty. Our ship had 100% capacity. The ships I saw looked liked about 25%. Many of them will not survive. The consumer now has choices like never before.

Bargaining was interesting. When we got to the point where they would say….”I am only making 10% profit” that became my opening to explain why they should sell below cost. Explain why turning dollars was more important right now than turning a profit. If my home is down 20% then they should absorb the loss as well. Their choice is to leave it on the shelf and maybe sell it later in the season or turn it into cash now and pay the rent. Some did and I walked away with several super bargains. Others did not….so I just walked away. It was their choice, not mine. My job was to make the offer.

The more I travel the more things are the same. Thinking is different sometimes. Reactions may be different. Lifestyle is different. But the day to day life is very similar no matter where you are assuming you are in a civilized part of the world. Even more similar when you go to the areas that tourists want to see. The faces may change but business is the same. Universal. Almost no difference.

The highlight was when I saw my slippers yesterday when I checked into the hotel. The name of the hotel printed on it followed by DOTCOM! In 1995 I said that eventually every brochure, every billboard, every ad, every letterhead, every label and every piece of material they produced would have their dotcom address on it. Few really believed that at the time. I was POSITIVE that would happen. Positive and stubborn in my belief in the face of disbelief.

As early as 2000 I knew I nailed it. One of my early beliefs is that someday I would walk through Times Square and every billboard would have a dotcom ad. When the reality happened in 2000 I had tears running down my cheeks. Even though I believed it with every fiber of my being, seeing it in the flesh was truly overwhelming. So when I saw it on the slippers, it brought back that day and confirmed just how powerful a domain name is. How powerful this new medium is.

What I can say is that we have barely scratched the surface. That there is still so much room for growth. More room for understanding. We are less than 50% of the way there. This economic period will force the world over the 50% mark. However I am still amazed about the lack of understanding the average business has about the power of the Internet to transform their business. And while that is disappointing, it is evidence of how much more can be mined. How much more can be achieved. How much more business can be done.

I come back on Tuesday after nearly a month on the road. I am exhausted on one hand and ready to harness the universe on the other. Timing is everything. I have written about timing very often. My friends, THIS is the time. THIS is the time to do great things. THIS is the time to take risk. THIS is the time to allow yourselves to become great. There is a window of opportunity that is NOW OPEN. I don’t know how long it will last. My gut says about a year. Maybe a bit less, maybe a bit more. When it does close, it will close fast and without notice. The greatest opportunity will be gone and simply a memory.

Have a GREAT Day!
Rick Schwartz

Morning Folks!!
So I was in Istanbul for 2 days and 1 day in another part of Turkey (Kusadasi and Ephesus pictured below). I like to look at local magazine ads. I noticed something a little unusual. While almost all had an email address in their ads, only about one third actually had a website listed. Brought me back a few years when that was more common here. But it still made me wonder. Especially with a young population with an average age of about 35.

Then my wife was interested in an item and she told them that she did not want to make a decision right now and would email them when she got back and have them ship it to her. Which they replied that they 'don’t ship.' I thought that pretty weird and that made all of us question the legitimacy of the business even though they seemed to be solid.

I later learned that Turkey was one of the few countries in the world in which the US Post Office would not insure or even guarantee delivery. It seems their mail system is so wrought with fraud that some 20%-30% never make it to their final destination. Many have found ways around that by opening US offices and sending boatloads of merchandise. But a disconnect to be sure.

There was a noticeable difference with their next door neighbor, Greece. Websites were common, to the ads, still not to the U.S. numbers, but .gr was everywhere and .com was pretty solid there as well. The folks that can benefit the most from the Internet also seem to be the ones to embrace it last. Go figure.

On the ship I strolled in to a “CruiseCritic.com get together. There must have been about 100 members there. I was looking for the culinary tour at the time and joined the wrong group. Just shows the power of the Internet once reserved for techies and webmasters, now includes so many different groups and interests that will again transform the net to what it was meant to be. The greatest communication device ever invented. The greatest shopping tool ever invented. The greatest information resource ever invented. The greatest learning tool ever invented. The greatest gaming ever invented. The greatest this, the greatest that. I could go on all day all night and still barely scratch the surface. The greatest social gathering mechanism ever invented and that includes millions of things I would have to list here once again.

Domains are a sliver of the opportunity out there. It is a foundational sliver and that guarantees a value that can only be judged when most folks truly understand the power of this medium. I have lived and breathed this medium for 14 years as a domain owner and years before that. And while I have always understood the power that could be achieved, even I am still getting my head around it. So how long for the casual user to get their heads around it? Be patient my friends. The true value of domains may not reveal themselves until we are all long gone from this planet. Even inventions like Ben Franklin and electric are still bearing fruit hundreds of years later. Look at all the things that we would not have in our lives had there been no electric. Think old Ben would be amazed beyond words? More invented after his death. After the death of all in that era and many eras since. Perhaps the real building blocks of civilization and progress. No electric no nothing. No computer. No modern medicine. No anything we come to use and live with and get comfort from.

There will be a reason that we will not have a great depression like 1929. The reason is the Internet and the reason is much beyond. So many new products will be hitting the market and they will all be internet enabled. Things you would never even imagine. Your dishwasher. Your oven. Your refrigerator. Any electrical device. Any battery operated device. Maybe even in furniture.

We are on the edge of history. The cutting edge. That edge is about to get red hot. Hotter than anything anyone has ever seen. Once all income had to come from a local market. Today that market is any point on the globe. The realization of the power that has yet to be tapped into will unleash a wave that will last for generations. So many models to copy in one ring and apply to another ring. Another market. Another group.

Greatness comes from despair. Success is born from adversity. Depression and recession produce motivation to think and create. If you have all the food, no reason to farm. Point is getting the world out of their “Comfort zone” is the greatest thing ever to happen to the internet and to domains. After the pain will come the gain.

Have a GREAT Day!
Rick Schwartz

Good Morning from Istanbul.

I believe a domain name has a value that is in direct proportion to the population it serves and the spending power associated with those particular groups. That is why I have always believed in dotcom. It just serves the largest sector. The wealthiest sector. The most global.

So if you have .gr for Greece, that is the population and the economic center that you tap into. It’s your base. Expanding that base is the trick. Same with all country codes. So there is a formula that you can form that helps to show the value. China may have the largest populace, but may not have the biggest spending power. There are other factors. Some items are more popular in one geographic region but not another. The point is there are all just a few factors that go into a value of a domain. Then we get to what somebody could do with it. What their potential is. Again, the point is there are so many things to consider. Each with a value. Each with a mathematical number attached to it. Dozens and dozens of factors.

Now this is something that there is no analytics’ on. Few really understand how many different facets there are to weighing a domain. And even when some consider it, their timeline is not included which is perhaps the biggest facet. But to be honest, there are many competing facets. Too many for me to even mention. You don’t have all day to weigh each and every facet. You have to learn to do it rapidly.

So I look at crappy domains and folks, they are as worthless as anything on this planet. Does not mean you can’t make it the next Google. But the inherent value is nil. You add up all the facets and it adds to zero. It adds to minus zero since it is a liability not an asset. Maybe I am exaggerating. Maybe the domain you have gets a 7. But the problem is it is a 7 on the scale of 1 million. Valueless. Worthless.

This period is your last best chance to find gold at below market prices. The window of opportunity will be quite short. It started just last month and could be over by this fall. Puff. Here today, gone tomorrow. The aftermarket next year won’t be as good as this year for the simple reason that there will be less domains of quality up for sale. Many will change hands this year. It won’t repeat next year as those that buy are buying to keep as opposed to flipping. The pool of quality domain names will not be what they are today. The window of opportunity is open. Don't blow it this time!

Have a GREAT Day!
Rick Schwartz

Morning Folks!!

Last year was 2008 BC. Before the crash and before the meltdown. So is 2009....2009 AC? 2009 AFTER CRASH? In a word, no. It is 2009, YEAR ONE on the Internet. This year is the actual starting point of the net. Whatever happened before was just positioning. Just a test. Just whatever it was. But now 2009 marks the true beginning of the Internet.

Today, when somebody loses their job, they go and signup for unemployment and their next chore is putting up a website. Not for all, but for too many to even count. Millions upon millions. In 2001 and 2002 I stated “From the ashes domains would rise the true Internet.” It did in spite of Main Street and Corporate America and the media doing everything in their power to kill it. The newspapers saw their empires in jeopardy and they fought tooth and nail to destroy the Internet. Same with broadcast media. Story after story about security and only to scare folks away. Misinformation spread purely for their selfish survival needs. Well, it did not work! It worked for a short time, but now it is over. They have lost. They have been defeated. They have been annihilated. They won’t disappear completely, but just like the local Blacksmith, their time has come and gone. While there will always be a need for the blacksmith, there will also always be a need for newspapers and periodicals. They will just take a different form and the newsstand of tomorrow won’t look like the ones of today.

The blacksmith’s that survived likely put in a gas pump. A gas pump to keep up with the times. Those that did not, mostly disappeared. Same with media today. Those that put in gas pumps, I mean transform their business to websites, have a chance to survive. Those that actually embrace and are aggressive will have a chance to thrive. The NY Times is on life support, the Boston Globe in even worse shape. The Wall Street Journal, flying high because they adapted instead of fighting the losing battle of the others. Pretty simple stuff from where I sit. Pretty predictable from where I sit. Why did those in the boardrooms miss it?

So as we look ahead to the rest of 2009 and into 2010 I can tell you that transformation is in the air. The last phase of a 20 year plan is about to start. This phase will trump all other phases combined. You are about to witness an explosion of epic proportions. And while payouts are as low as I have seen, I am here to tell you that in the next 12-18 months payouts will once again reach record levels. Demand for targeted traffic will go up exponentially. You will see the fist signs of this as early as August 2009. Then of course the fall will be even more interesting. However we won’t yet be out of the woods. It will unfortunately be short lived. As prices early in 2010 will once again collapse as I see it. However that will be the end of the worst part as we go through 2010 things are going to firm up. By August 2010 get ready to rumble. This time it will be here to stay and we are off to the races. That’s how I see things unfolding. As always, time will tell. I could even be off by a year. Point is this IS what is coming. The only question is the time line.

Have a GREAT Day!
Rick Schwartz

Morning Folks!!

People and friends I have met over the last years have no idea how hard I used to work. For me domaining is a hobby as well as a job and as well as an income producing investment. But long before that I did things that few humans ever did. I traveled so extensively few even believe it. So here is a picture of my key collection (With actual Metal Keys) representing the 15 years I lived out of a suitcase. Packing and unpacking almost every single day. Seldom did I stay in a hotel room for more than 1 night. Seldom did I pay more than $15/night. On one hand it was great to see the country and then later the world. On the other hand traveling was not so conducive to long term relationships. These are just 2 large vases full of keys. I have 5 in all and someday want to do an entire wall with these keys.

But even today few know to the extent in which I traveled. Back in the 1970’s when I was in my 20’s the economy was a mess. “Whip Inflation Now” was the slogan. I barely made enough to continue traveling and businesses were going out of business left and right.. Untied Airlines and Eastern Airlines (The largest airline of the day) had this special travel pass. You could travel UNLIMITED through the USA for $999 for 31 days. The only catch was you had to plan the entire trip itinerary in advance. In those 31 days I would start in Miami. I would fly to New Orleans. Work the day there. Then in the evening I would catch a flight to Seattle. That would save me a night at the hotel and they fed me dinner and then breakfast. I would work Seattle maybe spend 1 night there and then that evening I would get on a plane to Atlanta. Sleep on the plane, have dinner and breakfast and then work Atlanta. Then on to Los Angeles. You get the picture.

Sometimes I would take as many as 3 flights in 1 day to various cities. In those 31 days I would hit 21 major cities and also rent a car and “Surface travel” between others. I would do this for 1 month and then get in my car for the 90day journey from coast to coast and border to border. When I say few if any traveled as much or extensively as I did, I mean it.

I was very determined even back then to make it big. But it was hard and it took a very long time. I also figured someday I would do well and folks would think how lucky I got. And yes, luck always plays a big part. But I learned early that the harder you work, the luckier you get. I also figure that nobody would really believe me when I told them this story. So I began collecting the hotel room keys from all the places I stayed. Proof that this was a tough road and I really did pay my dues. Nobody handed me JACK!

This was tough. Tougher than you may think. But it provided me with an education that to this day pays dividends. I saw things that nobody saw. I understood thing that nobody understood. I had a perspective unlike any other living person because no other did what I did.

So those were tough years to do what I did but those were the building blocks of today. It is how I formed my perspective. Talking to so many business owners in so many different parts of the country. They were all different and all quite the same. Quite a contradidction, but also a reality. So folks look at me now and don‘t think I work hard. They are right.. On the other hand, I really never take a day off. 14 years and each day I have read and responded to emails. I have NEVER been out of touch since the day I got on the net. No matter where I am I do what I have to do and love doing it. Work? What’s that?

Have a GREAT Day!
Rick Schwartz

Afternoon Folks!!

A MUST see. I promise you will be entertained. Direct from TRAFFIC. This is how the ordinary person feels about domainers and the net. Howard Neu is 'The man on the Street.'

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBZ9OXDsvRw&feature=channel_page

Rick Schwartz