The Rick Schwartz Domain Name and Traffic Blog: RicksBlog.com – Home of The Domain King®

Morning Folks!!

So let's look at the coming time line for the gTLD's and what is likely to happen.

While sunrise periods are starting nothing counts until things open to the public and the cash registers are open for full business. So that is likely next summer and fall by the time things are in full swing. Not sure exactly when things will climax as the roll out takes 2 years.

The slip by one can hurt many and that could replay many times. A stumble by one. A scandal by another.  Who knows. But what I do know is that is will affect them all whether they like it or not.

No matter which way things shake out, the drop game is going to be the big winners. DomainShane and DomainPicks will have to have several daily editions  to even try to keep up. That calamity starts summer or fall 2015 and then continues for as far as the eye can see.  The drops will be dropping like flies and there will still be registries opening their doors in success or failure and those headwinds WILL have an effect.

Don't trip over the drops on the way to shangri-la.

You don't have to be some so-called visionary to see the obvious and plan for it and take advantage of it. This is a GUARANTEED EVENT regardless of the success or failure of any gtld.  GUARANTEED!

See if you see things the way I see things you can see events that are definite far out in the future and from those events you can be at an outcome before there is an outcome. Be at the beach before anyone arrives or even thinks of going.

You can also fill in the blanks in between the outcomes. That provides a roadmap and a timeline and you never break a sweat doing it.

There will be clues and evidence and successes and failures along the way. It is from those events you get to predict other events. But to do this you must discount the propaganda, the noise and the bogus and inflated sales sure to come. That which provides the BAIT for others to get sucked in.

And it will be those folks that will be trying to desperately get rid of their domains before the drop of 2015. The 80/20 rule in full swing and that number has the potential to be bent much, much higher. There are more and more domainers invested in the success of gtld's. There are thousands of jobs at stake. Tools to be sold. Things to write about.

The question is how will the consumer and business respond and participate. Without them, it has all the makings for a tulip festival and that would not be good for anyone reading this. Expansion is a great thing. Anyone bring any stop signs, traffic lights or exits?

Whichever side you come down on, follow your heart and beliefs. Bet on yourself. Don't listen to me or Monte or Frank or any blogger. Do your own due diligence. Be skeptical. Ask hard questions. Follow the numbers. Target without exempting the entire planet. You have a right when it comes to investing your hard-earned dollars because our futures are all at stake. The futures of our family. Our main job is to resist propaganda and insist on facts.

Rick Schwartz

Morning Folks!!

Coming to the right conclusions with less information and doing it early. Isn't that what speculation is about?  Figuring it out early or first? I figured this out in 1996-1997 after starting in 1995 and each day I figure out a little more and I will never apologize for being first on a line. Or first to see something. Or first to take action. Or first to register a domain name. And anyone that would point to that as anything negative could only define themselves, not me.

Like I said, Berkens is my research department because he finds things FIRST. Newspapers are in business to be first. They want to break the story first.

In what I do, I want to find all the pitfalls first. It's the pitfalls that need attention and that is what I focus on. I tune out the blue sky talk totally as that is a trap for the naive. You only see the blue sky if you survive the tornado and storms they swear are not there.

The beginning, the end and the pitfalls along the trail. What else really matters? I don't care about the BS drama and lipstick along the way.

A pitfall can never be ignored. So they have to be addressed. But a pitfall can only be filled with an argument that is sound and holds water.

I have been making posts on ".whatever" for 2.5 years now. Dozens of posts with .whatever in the title and some 90 posts examining it from top to bottom. I thought about it for a long time before I ever wrote a single word and my main job sitting here is thinking and playing out different scenarios looking for answers.  Real answers. Not based on what I want, but based on the reality of what I see and the future as I see it unfolding. On the record for the record before it becomes commonplace.

And when I was doing that on Sunday I found......

Another argument that makes no sense.

On one side I am told by gtld companies that 5-6 billion people are yet to go online. And this huge expansion coming. ok, fine. Let's say I buy into that for the MOMENT since the buying power for about 3 billion of them is zilch. But leave that aside, their argument is for those 6 billion. So I will follow their yellow brick road.

Then a few  minutes later they say how they are going to leave .com as the market share gets all diluted and watered down. How does that make any sense when they just got through telling me about those 6 billion being added?? Which yellow brick road do they want me to walk down. Which one am I to believe? Because these 2 premises collide.  They very simply collide. They can't have it both ways.  So when you stick to the numbers, there is no room for bullshit like this.

I am in sales. These are arguments that don't hold water and they contradict themselves. Am I supposed to swallow this?

The facts of the matter are already there with other parallels for those that choose to look at them and understand them. Folks want to look at Las Vegas and their growth without looking at other places and their growth. But again, there was a REASON to go to Vegas. There was a need, there was a want and there was a desire for gambling and entertainment and hot chicks and booze. They were the only place you could go for legalized gaming in those days.

Now look. You have all types of states and countries doing the gaming and lottery and yes Las Vegas has collapsed right?????? Is that what horse shit I am supposed to swallow guys??

Macau, lotteries, indian casinos, islands, Reno, Lake Tahoe, Cruise Ships. Are you kidding me. HOW did that hurt Las Vegas?? It didn't and it made it even greater than it was. So your argument is not consistent with empirical evidence aka FACTS!

A rising tide lifts all boats. Thinking .com will go down in value or have less traffic is absolutely the nuttiest thing I have EVER heard. It goes against empirical evidence I just pointed to. Give that one up!

Ok?

I make points with evidence. And why would anyone even argue these points? It may work for folks that know nothing about domain names when you are raising funds, but this is nonsense inside the walls of this industry by folks that really should understand this all much better. They are coming to assumptions that are not backed up by examples of history. Like I keep on repeating now. Empirical Evidence. Las Vegas just the latest in a series proving the fallacy of this silly argument.

And we don't have to wait 20 years to see the winner. It will be evident each week on Ron Jackson's report. More Empirical Evidence. Not wishful thinking or a fallacious hypothesis. But past facts. The test holds true over and over and over again.

And just remember, most of the biggest deals are still not disclosed. Escrow.com started about 66% if my memory serves me correctly. And the bigger they are, the less chance they are disclosed. And even in a disclosure can be hidden as far as exact amount paid when you buy a company for their domain name.

Folks are free and welcome to speculate on anything they choose. Some will make money. Most will lose money. But selling on false assumptions and false arguments that are squarely against history is weak and I think does not help the position of those that use it. Hundreds of different sales strategies that are going to cause their own set of collisions.

Some are going to struggle desperately to stay above water.  Some are going to sink right to the very bottom. These are absolute givens. They are facts just awaiting time to confirm them. But in speculation you have to determine those facts BEFORE they are facts. But to do that, you must have the facts to begin with and the history to back it up. So when I am presented a false set of facts, based on false history, on the heels of .Mobi, .biz, .pro, .xxx, well then I have a RIGHT to raise these objections and questions and be on record and so do you.

I don't have to sell a thing, they do. But please raise the level of the conversation to match the reality at hand and the audience you are addressing. I would certainly be much more receptive to that level then some of the nonsense I am hearing. I do not wish for the failure of any extension. Quite the opposite. I root for their success. Their success is not a threat it is fuel. I am stunned that otherwise intelligent folks would see it like the glass is half full. The greatest success would have .com and many other extensions overflowing.

Look at my writings and you will see it is consistent with the rise in popularity of .tv. I think .tv will benefit from this. I don't see a single extension suffering. I see only expansion regardless of population. 7 billion people is not how you measure. You measure by companies and how many each of them will control. Companies at one time had one website. Now they have dozens or hundreds or thousands. THAT is the population I focus on. Those are the folks that can and will expand the most and the quickest. Many of them with decent budgets.

Why would anyone think that selling a win-lose concept comes out as a winning hand?? The world is about win-win. That is the way to get people's attention. Win-win. Show them a way to expand their online presence. Show them only positives. Anything built on negatives or false assumptions or fallacious information will eventually collapse.

And collapsing is different from failing because this is all 99.9% forseeable.

1234567890123 without any .com rings every phone in the world. there are a total of 9,999,999,999,999.

9.9 TRILLION combinations with those 13 digits. Maybe a few less actually. But in theory......

Now last time I looked you can go many times n=more than 13 digits before you add the .com. You can go to 63 I think it is. That pus a hole in their argument before I even start my argument and I can prove my argument with NUMBERS not EMOTION 63 different ways. I can have more combinations with the same 13 digits that ring every phone in the world. All I need to do is substitute one letter for a number. I can use just the letter "A" until with all the variables. Then "B" the "C". Then after I got to z I could start to use 2 letter variables. Then 3. Then all words that use up to 13 letters. Then I have not even mentioned dashes. Nor have I dsaid anything about 14 digit domain.

Smell the BULLSHIT?? There must be a math major here somewhere that can highlight what infinity might look like. I will admit, .com is NOT infinite. Tho for the purposes we use it for, it is. So please don't expect anyone with an ounce of sense to swallow bullshit. I just proved it and I barely scratched the surface. I could sit here every day for the next 20 years and I would not run out if examples when I hear we are running out of .com. Not sure if there is even a name for a number the size of what we are talking about.

Point is this is 100% fallacious. Pure and simple. What happens when I do it on a low-level like this, is the antenna goes up and you look for other fallacious arguments and you start to see a picture being developed. I am truly trying to save these folks from a Kodak moment when they go on the world stage. I think these things are poisoning the waters a bit and it is self-inflicted poison. Needless! They have stronger arguments. I hope!

Success for a gtld does not translate to anything bad for any of us. Between this post and yesterdays post, I just try to have a balanced approach and at the same time not listen to silly stuff and my job is to spotlight silly stuff so we can focus on the real subjects. Which are the extensions themselves, the adaptation by the MASSES, the reasons why without making the weak case that has been made.

.com is a phenomenon. The graph that Verisign released is another example of how hard this is going to be. STUDY that chart!! Look at the SLIVER they are all going to fight over. Wake me up when any of them get out of the "Other" category. Any of them. Registry success has nothing to do with our success.  The one that has the best chance is .web and it is no secret.

And as far as my 20 year plan and those trying to use that to cover them now. This is what I wrote as a comment on TheArtofTheName.com yesterday:

"To be honest. I could not put a 20 year plan together today given the circumstances today. The 20 year plan was for a unique moment in time. With a specific medium. That had specific parallels. And I put a time stamp until we hit critical mass. And it worked!!

I never had one before and I doubt I will ever have one again. People have to eat today with a vision of the future. But in this fast paced medium, 20 years is CRAZY! I focus on now and the 36 months in front of us as a rule and year to year as a basis for progress.

The Internet was a unique circumstance because it was the largest endeavor in the history of the world and I realized that and what the changes would look like in 2013.

But this is worse that Kool-Aid because it is laced with BS and many ignore the basic questions that are asked.

At the end of the day it will be content and consumer acceptance that decides. Not any of us. All we can do is bet on the eventual outcome."

You can see the video from T.R.A.F.F.I.C. There is no anger in the argument, there is just a disagreement among friends about where the road goes and I think their compass is not calibrated correctly. :-) The future will sort it out. They took out their wallets and are taking a risk. Bravo! The question is risk based on what? A question we get to ask when it comes to our wallets. Especially since it is hard if not impossible to point out past successes with similar products with less competition.

Rick Schwartz

Morning Folks!!

Each new gTLD I will review with the following lens and I will rate in each category.

NEED

WANT

DESIRE

VALUE (And for now, let's stipulate that value is limited until it can be measured in a more meaningful way)

I can score them on a 1-10 basis but seldom will I have to.

So let's start with .London

Let me also make the following blanket statement. Geo's and Brands may be exceptions.

Brands have nothing to do with us as investors. The only relevance is if they will use it, when they will use it and how they will use it. So let's stipulate that .brand is a separate issue. If I were working for .brand I would get the .brand gtld. Maybe never use it, but secure it nonetheless depending on the brand. Some brands can take their time. .CocaCola for example is not in jeopardy. However .apple or .delta could be. So there would be more of a sense of urgency.

.Geo tlds will be determined by how it is embraced locally and whether it is a turn off or a turn on internationally. Gucci.Rome? Maybe. Fendi.Paris. But the "." is very confusing and sometimes catalogued.

Point is, these are different from the generics. I can't say which way it may go. But it is still limited. But there is opportunity depending on the restrictions and adaptation. It may or may not be embraced. The public has the final vote. None of us do. Our job is to predict what will unfold and bet on the outcome.

So then we get to the generics and those are the ones I will focus on.

Let's do .Club

First of all when I apply my test of Need, Want and Desire, almost all will rate very low on "Need". There is little "Need" for any of this. So let's not make false foundations. Need is universally LOW! Bullshit is about to become universally high trying to overcome the FACT that there is no need! We already heard some of it. We are running out of .coms. Bullshit! .Com is your fathers extension. More bullshit. And friend or foe, I am allergic to bullshit and I will point it out each time. If you like stepping in it, then by all means don't let me stop you.

Then we get to WANT! Want is another story. And .Club actually ranks rather well on want. I could see clubs wanting their name. So let's discuss the most valuable .clubs. Those will be famous and trademarked .clubs and that has no meaning to you and me. However there are a number of generic clubs. Problem is most clubs like that would not have a lot of money as a general rule. Now there are exceptions and it will be those exceptions that you would have to focus on. So Bridge.club to a women's Thursday condo club has no value. You need a national bridge club to WANT that domain for a lot of money. Do they WANT it? That is the question?? They certainly don't need it.

Then we go to desire. You really need to desire something before you even get to want. I don't know that folks are going to desire these. They may. There are enough clubs so it could have a basis and a foundation. Will they desire it in time is the only question?

You can take a gtld like that and stand it next to .tatoo for example. Given those two, I would bet on .club. But of course, we have many more choices, so keep your wallet in your pockets for the time being.

Then .sexy is the last one for today. There is only one thing I am 100% certain of when it comes to .sexy. I am certain that sexy.com is the immediate and big winner. There is no gamble there whatsoever. Sexy.com does not have to do a thing. On the other hand the .Sexy registry, needs many thousands of what comes down to "Sub-domains".  That loops right back around to co.com. They seem to be betting that the .com is imperative on the end and are going to be there to take advantage of the confusion factor if that materializes. But don't mind me. I am a simple man who is easily confused. Luckily hundreds of millions know how I feel.

I will match each one against .web. Why .web? Because so far that would seem the one that makes the most sense for any type of wide adaptation in which ANY word or phrase can be used in conjunction with it.

But .web could be another .biz or .net. Could be. I am not certain. I can see scenarios for either. And that is what our job is. Be certain about what we are certain of and be flexible on what we are not certain of. With each new bit of info, even certain has to be looked at again and recalculated. You either become more or less certain. But this is still a process that must be done mentally to get to a conclusion and an answer before others do.

So .web if it had some broad support and advertising could be an extension that puts .net on their heels. A good case could be made to abandon a .net and use a .web if it were to be embraced by the public. My comments on .web go back years and as Franky pointed out during our debate last month, they opted for .info instead. That was a HUGE mistake. Had they used .web at that time, I think things would look a lot different today.

Need, want, desire.

Need to me is universally 1 on the 1-10 scale. It may decline from there. ;-)

Want, comes down to the audience it will attract. .Club could do well on want. .web could do well on want. .London could do well on want. When it comes to desire, that is what they need to instill in folks and that is a TALL order. To instill desire on something you don't actually need. Tough mountain. Depends how the locals embrace and use it. Depends if the locals are not the ones that own the domains. Depends on all types of restrictions that could be in play. That applies to all the geos universally. We know the city is behind .nyc. But what we don't know is who and how many will adapt to it and who basically will reside there. Who will or will not advertise it. All unknowns and most of the unknowns don't end well. And the confusion factor is always there.

Brands are separate and the only thing we need to watch for and be aware of is adaptation and advertising. Whether it will be used as an internal or external platform. Without that, it is nothing more than a patent in a drawer that may or may not have useful value.

Look, I enjoy talking about the unknown. Comparing notes, thoughts and ideas. The elbows will eventually fly with 700 horses in a derby meant for 15-20. They will contradict each other. Stumble over each other and basically do damage to each other. More than my thoughts could ever do. Sorry, that's the way it is likely to unfold. I can't control any of that. I can just see it before it materializes and articulate it beforehand. Tell me next Christmas how wrong I am. Kumbya won't be in the top 100.

Sales are hard to make. But sales make the world go around. Without sales all the 700 die on the vine. No 2 ways about it. A true catch 22. Domainers looking for the second coming are likely to snap up whatever they can afford and if that smothers the end-user out, game over! On the other hand if they are depending on the end-user and startups to support them, could be the same result. A balancing act for sure. It will take a few years to see who survives. There is simply not enough oxygen out there to support them all. Each collapse can only hurt those that remain. Can only cast a shadow on the others. That is why there will be a lot of turmoil to come.

And they will be FORCED to resort to bullshit as we have already seen. They must paint a blue sky or who in their right mind would invest? When selling, there is allowable bullshit and bullshit that is to the point of misleading and lying. See when you have to mislead and lie to sell, that is a very weak sale. That is a sale that may bounce. That is a sale riddled with problems.  That may not be a sale at all. I think we have all been fooled enough with the promises of riches with extensions that have done nothing but suck up investors money.

I really do want to see what they see. Just don't pee on my leg and tell me it is raining. Tell me the benefits of your .whatever without having to resort to silly stuff that will never filter down to your target audience anyways and alienates domainers that could actually invest if they did not think they were getting bullshitted AGAIN! It's all about the .whatever and what value it has to offer. The same people saying this and that didn't see the recovery and BOOM we are in now just a few months back when I started pointing to the reasons we would be where we are now. But it is not about now, it's about where we will be in a year from now.

I really don't care who runs the registry. Network Solutions was perhaps the worst company I ever had the pleasure to do business with. They were so inept back in 1995 and 1996 tat they forgot to put in a cash register and actually charge for each domain name. Did not seem to hurt .com and they were like an angel investor to me. By the time the first bill actually came, I was making money online and I had more income than bills.

This is fun and exciting times for us. However the new registries are under the gun to make money. They have overhead, staffs, rent, attorney bills, ICANN bills and then they have to suffer delay after delay after delay. That is very costly and some of them are in a world of pain. So when I hear domainers say for $185k they could have owned a registry, not so fast. And since we are ging to have 700 under the gun at virtually the same time, IMAGINE the bullshit they and their folks are about to spew. I have written about it for 18 months and now we are seeing it.

Besides that, 75% of "Domainers" and "Domain Flippers" that we all know, will be working for these companies. So friend or foe, it is about the viability of each extension and the opportunity to make money that will be my driving force and the only thing that gets in the way of that is BULLSHIT and that is why you will NEVER see me relent when it comes to BS. No way Jose!

So my advice for each gTLD, is stick with the facts, don't make up sales and don't try to marginalize something else in order to make your case. That dog won't hunt. It's weak and transparent. Really.

Just one last promise.

If you like your .Com, you can keep your .Com. Period! See I think when it comes to bullshit, we have all heard quite enough. So become Joe Friday from Dragnet. Nothing but the FACTS. I point to EMPIRICAL evidence backed by numbers. Ignoring that is not the road to make a sale.

Rick Schwartz

Morning Folks!!

So yesterday afternoon my Research Department sent me this graphic below and more. You will notice .tk is the #2 extension. Forgive my ignorance, never heard of it. But that nonsense aside, where is .mobi on the list below? .Biz? .Pro? .travel? .Aero..whatever has a LONG way to go for 700 of them to divide up the tiniest of little slivers. This is not even about domain names. This is about numbers and market share and more numbers and all I can say, is study the chart below and others Verisign has posted on their blog.

Each of the 700 new extensions have to sell you on their vision and then have enough content by end users that is significant enough to warrant mentioning. They can talk about the small guy all they want, but like Lonnie says, they have to sell them on something. Their job now is to sell and show the blue skies on the horizon simply by using their new unproven extension.

Well, take a step into reality and look at what that horizon really looks like. Look at the chart below and look at the SLIVER that says "OTHER TLD's". That is where your losers already reside and they are about to be joined by 700 others. Of which only ONE has a real chance at being meaningful imho. And then we can measure and weigh "Meaningful".

Look, you can fish in an ocean. You can fish in a river. You can fish in a pond. You can fish in a stream. You can fish in a creek. But fishing in puddles is for fools. Again, strictly by the numbers. Strictly as an investment. Strictly by historical facts. Strictly by gut instinct.

I wish them all success. Many are dear and close friends. But for the life of me, I just don't get it and it must be my own shortcomings.

Just yesterday 3 guys I have known for many years came out with the .co.com registry. Huh?? Sorry, I love you guys, but for the life of me, I just don't get it. These guys are all a lot smarter than me. But I just don't get it. I just see more and more confusion and when that happens it is human nature to go back to what it knows and is familiar with. That said I can see just a glimmer of what they may see. A universal country code ending in .com? Instead of co.uk you have co.com? I am not sure. This makes .co confusion seem simple.

So without talking to each registry and trying to see their vision, it is difficult for me to figure out the end game in 5, 10 or 20 years. There are only a handful so far that you look at it and it makes sense and you get. But should I really need to talk to each one? Should it not be evident on the face of things?

So my first question might be when will the first .whatever make the following chart? Study that chart. See how hard or easy it is to have a SHARE of that.

Like Lonnie Borck says, these guys all must sell something to stay in business. Which will explain the flurry of new shows coming to the space. A shrinking space to begin with when we talk about domain investors but one that is exploding when we talk registries and registrars. They each need to sell to survive. They each must convince 3rd parties that theirs is better and the way of the future. Third parties tht have no interest to begin with. Where does that intersect with investing? When? Why is Need, Want and Desire being ignored? The basic building blocks of any good or service.

Over the past months I have articulated as many of the pitfalls as I have time to write about and I could write for another year. This is a TINY industry. The SMALL guy that they always seem to be talking for could give a rats ass and is not in this industry. They are not waking up in the morning looking for a domain name. They have one or don't want one. That is the case in 98% or more. They have one, they don't need another or just don't want one. They use Facebook or eBay or whatever their preferred marketing outlet is. Get over it! That's the reality we are in and what is stunning to me is it applies to the guy in his 60's and in his 20's and 30's.

Ok, so they will focus on startups. Great. Startups using other people's money of which 80% would fail with a .com and now more will fail without it. Again, I focus on numbers and history and human nature. I don't worry if I will offend a friend. This is business and this is our hard-earned money and nobody should do this blindly. They have been trying to reinvent the hula-hoop for 55 years without much success.

We all know what the motivation was for all this. It was not to make a better universe. It was not to make the internet easier to navigate. It was and is a pure hula hoop money play. PERIOD!! A square Hula Hoop full of holes and dead ends that lead to an awful amount of confusion! What is with 2013? Shopped for Medical Insurance Lately?

But the characteristics of the .com are not the same as they are with .whatever. Study the NUMBERS. The numbers. Look below and study them. Then look to history and ask where are all the other great extensions on that list? You can see from that chart below it is nothing more than a sandwich. On one side you have .com. On the other side you have cctld's. Both are key and are important and neither are going away. They co-exist without damaging each other. Now in the middle of that sandwich below is all the other extensions. Six of which are CCtld's as well. Take out the .net and .org that have been around for 20 years.  You will see all the extension now combined don't even equal .info. 700 extensions and 695 of them will be relegated to living and sharing that sliver!

Whether a registry makes his annual nut or goes broke has nothing to do with what we do. Building anything on a foundation of sand and you better have a plan "B" ready to go.

For a clearer graphic: Source: http://blogs.verisigninc.com/blog/entry/verisign_to_issue_new_domain

Morning Folks!!

I was going to post this last week and got a bit derailed.

So now that both Part 1 and Part 2 of Team Schwartz vs Team Schilling it is time to post how I see it.

First, I don't think there is a winner or a loser. I think we just have "On the record, for the record". I think we all presented a brief point, counterpoint and I think it was entertaining, informational and productive and it was very serious because it deals with where you may or may not invest your hard-earned money. In a few years we will look back and then we will see.

Frank and I are friends and we have never had a cross word. That does not mean we have to agree. Berkens and I are friends and we too disagree some times. But we duke it out with thoughtful debate and we let the future sort out things like winners and losers.

I heard arguments that I had not heard before. Some made a lot of sense and of course I was quick to point out when it made no sense. But we all have one thing in common, we are looking for answers. Some have a more vested interest in it than others, but answers are what we seek.

I look at it and while it was really a perfect opening, it was just that, an opening. There is so much more to discuss and understand and to either reject or embrace.

It's not up to me whether their vision becomes a reality. I can only bet on the outcome. Invest in whatever direction I see it going. Like everything else in life, I may bet right, I may bet wrong. But as a businessman and an opportunist, I will look to history and the empirical evidence that has already been gathered to help me decide.

And while many would like to forget about .mobi and .aero like the public has, we can't ignore their outcomes. Their success is not our success. Nobody to blame for that. Just how the chips came down. Same with most of the others.

So out of 700 I am pretty sure that 7 of them will come to challenge .net or other tld. Maybe some country codes. Maybe not. Great and Unique Content and successfully establishing viable businesses will determine the outcome more than any other single thing. Registry success does not translate to investor success. Two different ballgames. I am sure many will find some degree of success.

Monte says .Travel is a successful registry. That may be true. But I would not invest seriously in that tld. Or .aero. I have nothing against them. If they make money or not has ZILCH to do with me. I just don't think it is a wise investment when there are so many better choices. Especially if you flip domains for a living.

But what really is crazy to me is the notion we are running out of .coms or that .coms are going to be old-fashioned. That is just loony tunes to me with all due respect. I don't think crazy talk helps their cause and actually hurts them. I think it turns people off. I may be wrong. I can't speak for everyone but human nature does have a reaction and it is not the one they want. Especially when I can prove it with simple numbers and an example with TopPlumber.com.

There will be opportunity whether this succeeds or fails. Whether there is confusion or not. But you can predict with a pretty good degree of certainty that if they discover their efforts are not being fruitful or their customers are confused that they could care less about anything but stopping the bleeding.

I talk about how I see 700 horses in the starting gate and I don't know how most of them don't get trampled by the others. They disagree among themselves. They each have different self interests so none will be playing from the same sheet of music. That equals chaos. You can see it from here. You don't have to wait a year to see multiple collisions of all sorts. A few scams and an extension could be out of it!

Like I said, we have only touched on some of the issues.  And at the end of the day it will be a gtld by gtld race. Some will be viable and some will die on the vine and that is already happening. All forseeable.

There is so much more to debate over. Reality will determine the winner. Not you, me or anyone. We all just make our case. We put our money where are mouths are. Frank certainly has devoted many millions to what he believes and like Lonnie said, if anyone is going to make it, it will be Frank. I like .link but I don't get .tattoo. I have to look over the rest of his list and again, it will be a .whatever by .whatever decision. .tattoo won't be high on my list. But Frank estimates 25,000 registrations.

Each Registry I talk with throw around numbers that may have made sense given the current levels of extensions but I think are a little ambitious given 700 breaking at nearly the same time. So their biggest obstacle may be their own projections.

Either way the landscape could change drastically in the months ahead. As I have said, once these folks start hiring staffs, their sheer numbers will overwhelm us. It will get noisy. So don't be surprised and don't be surprised if I don't win any popularity contests. Anticipate and be ready for what is coming regardless of the success or failure of any individual extension.

My MAIN position is that after the dust settles and we have the carcases of 695 .mobi's lying around, that will be the fuel that finally accelerates .com prices to the levels I believe they are worth. I think we are already seeing that.

It is ok to build on any gtld. But you MUST own the .com at some point to continue your growth. Not doing that is a dereliction of duty. If you are in charge and you make a mistake like that.....you should no longer be in charge. That is why to this day I scoff at that Madison Avenue panel in 2007 that said it was all about "Budgets". Sorry, budgets don't count when you must make a decision for the next 100 years! I don't think budgets matter when your house is burning down. I don't think budgets matter when you have a heart attack. Budgets are guides they are not tablets written in stone! Listen to THE Dumbest answer I have ever heard since I have been in business.

Rick Schwartz

Morning Folks!!

Thank you so much for all your well wishes. They have been very comforting.

What a sucky week. Dying, Death, Funeral, Memories. Lots of tears and lots of laughs. Laughs that end up back in tears. Many of you know what it is like and for those that don't maybe this will give you a little insight.

All I can say is that it is like a hurricane. The tears come in squalls. All of a sudden. Unannounced. It's whatever thing or thought sets it off at the moment. Some sad, some funny a song a word. No matter how well prepared you think you are, it's like going into battle. The playbook and the plan go right out the window. No matter the age, you know you can't call or visit them again. When they are young or a life ends in tragedy, it adds to the pain exponentially. So I can only imagine.

What most don't know was that my mom was also a domainer. Not in the sense you may think, but it was my mom and dad in the early days that would call me up or email me new ideas or new domain names to see if they were available. They did that a few years earlier with my vanity 800 numbers. I have no idea how many of theirs I registered, but there were a few dozen.

Later my dad would call me and ask of the 800 numbers and then  the domain names...."How did the whores do last night?" I would laugh and said they made me $50 or $200 or whatever it was. And in the last 6 months of his life he watched me pay off my mortgage in 90 days. It was important to me because they co-signed that loan to help me get back on track and I wanted that burden lifted from me and the risk for them......gone. That was my #1 motivation at the time.

The only ones on this planet I had to answer to about my adult names was them. They never had a problem with it.  So the rest of the world and their opinions matter not. They don't get to judge me unless I get to look and judge them. None of them ever have the class, the values, the integrity nor the dignity that they had. Nor will I for that matter. Tho I try every day. They were just the type people who never said "No" to anyone in need.

Maybe some of all this explains my mother's favorite colors. Black and white. She wore black and white, she decorated in black and white and she was buried in black and white. So maybe she saw things in black and white as well. I know I can. Maybe that is where it came from huh? Not a far stretch.

So I knew in 1996 that if my parents, who were both in their 70's and 80's, if they could figure out the value of the Internet, then I was sure the rest of the world and the geniuses that got paid to see these things would catch up too. I talked about it often during those years. The old were connected online. The young were connected online. Almost everyone in between was UN-connected.  I would go on a plane and there was not a businessman with a laptop or even a word processing device in those days. All these business people wasting hours of time when they could have been productive. Realtors were especially bad. They could save so much time and energy, but they were too busy WASTING that time and energy. Now look at them. They get it! Th they still don't use it to its' fullest.

I knew only one thing. That gap would close not widen and from there everything else happened. What does that plane look like today? Easier to count the people without a device! I could see that back in the 1980's before we even had the Internet when I bought my first pocket word processor that I could not afford for $199 and then went on to write 2 newsletters that became my main selling pieces for the next decade! All while waiting for my plane from Seoul to Tokyo on my return trip from Hong Kong. Wasted time turned into THE most productive time ever to that point.

So as I my parents were in a new world in 1995 so was their 5-year-old grand-daughter and for the first time a grand parent could be in the world and everyday life of the grandchild no matter where they were. They were now part of their daily lives. Want the only word in the entire world to describe that?? PRICELESS!! Priceless is that word. Think about how life changing that was and is.

That was the single thing that impressed me most about the internet in those days. I saw that life changing relationship and what it means and what it would mean. And I was ripping my hair out that others could not see something so basic, simple and powerful. MORONS! I would want to yell. Can you look back now and see what I saw and why I saw it? And that was only one tiny little thing of so many things that would become priceless. How frustrating it was that something so priceless was being missed by so many?

Instant messaging was my preferred communication method with my mom. She had 100% retention and understanding of the written word. But when you spoke and told her something, you would have to tell her over and over again. But when I wrote it, that never happened. Her mind was sharp as a tack.

Their help through life allowed me a safety net that I never took for granted. It was even harder as they only had modest means and were living on a fixed income. They only invested in us. Their lives revolved around us. They gambled a lot on me and without that, I would not be here writing this today.

And if it were not tough enough already....the single loudest whale of a cry was Sunday Night when I saw the piece of paper below. From 10 years ago. It listed her bank accounts back then and where the key to her safety deposit box was.

On on the back of that piece of paper, you will see why.

Broken Hearted, but life goes on. I hope to be back in the saddle next week. But I realize and will be reminded often this year and beyond that such a big piece of my life has changed forever. The very foundation. Not easy breaking a GOOD  habit that was a lifetime in the making. Since the day my dad died in October of 1997, we have made sure that mom was okay and happy. They were love birds and we wanted to make sure she made it through. She lived her life independently for 16 more years until just weeks ago. 26 crusies later, 500 Sunday breakfasts under the belt, plus many lunches dinners and celebrations. She was always ready to go at the drop of a hat. Bravo mom for a life lived well and a heart that goes unmatched.

Rick Schwartz

Here was the Eulogy:

Hi Folks,

It's been a pretty distressing couple of months. The last weeks very hard.

My mom has been in her final days and hours as I write this. (And if I decide to post this, her battle will have been over) It's my outlet. Some of the  hardest days of life are upon me and I know the next days will be challenging. But in and after the grief  I will celebrate her life. I am thankful her suffering was not prolonged.

She was born years before the depression. Lived through that era and even helped my grandfather, "The Hosiery King of Fulton Street", stay in business after he went out of business and slowly built it back up using my mother as the go between since nobody would sell direct to him anymore. Everytime my mother would pick up the goods and each order larger and larger and at 12 she was the biggest buyer with nobody knowing it was actually my grandfather until he was back on top and all was forgiven.

My mom was amazing. In all of my life not one person ever had an ill word to say about her. I guess that stuff skips a generation is my only answer I have for me. But she won everyone over and did it instantly.

She was one of the millions of "Rosey the Riveters" during WW2.  She never applied for a job in her entire life that she did not get. She was a bookkeeper, sales person and also the Head Hostess at one of the largest restaurants in South Florida back in the 70's and 80's.

Just a few months ago I was able to make this blog post about my mom's 90th Birthday. A few weeks later she was the star of the show at my 60th birthday party. As late as August she was still driving. Scary, but still driving. Today she lost her battle. We have been lucky that she did not have a lot of suffering. She stopped eating weeks ago but would have cravings and we were quick to make sure she got what she craved. Her last big meal was her favorite. Lobster. She has been eating lobsters since I am a kid and would clean that caucus until it was barely a skeleton. Even on her death-bed with the aid of the caretaker she was able to put down one more 2lb'er.

She passed early this afternoon. Everyone said she was a "Battleship". A true survivor. Breast Cancer, Lung Cancer, Ovarian cancer, Lung Cancer again. Several strokes, heart problems and still loved every second of life.

She lived for Sunday breakfasts with our small clan of 7. A 20 year tradition. But the last 2 weeks she could not even make it out of bed to join us in her dining room. We knew then we were on borrowed time. Matter of fact, Sunday, the first Day of TRAFFIC, was the last time we actually had breakfast together. I am so glad I made that extra effort to make it that day.

So we have been preparing, however you are never prepared. I am just so fortunate and thankful that I had my dad in my life until I was 44 and my mom until 60. I know how many others don't have that great fortune and I have never ever taken it for granted. But going to bed tonight will be different from any other in my life.

 Mom 3 years ago and 3 weeks after skirting death.

 Mom this past April as we celebrate her 90th

 Mom and me in May at my 60th Birthday

 Mom and Dad Circa 1993

 Mom at 21.

Love you and miss you! :-(

11/08/2013 Update. The service and Funeral was today at 10;30AM. Below is the Eulogy that was given:

It’s hard to talk about our mother, Estelle, without talking about our father, Hy.  They were a pair.  A matched set.

Our father Hy died in 1997, but as long as our mother was with us, he was too.  Now that she is gone the loss is twice as hard to bear.

They both grew up in Brooklyn. Our father grew up on the streets.  Our mother Estelle grew up on a financial roller coaster with her two brothers, Elliott and Lionel.

Her father and mother, Benjamin and Molly Kosloff, started businesses, closed businesses, lived in grand apartments, ran from creditors, and made and lost minor fortunes.

She even helped our grandfather get back into business during the depression. Ben was known as  "The Hosiery King of Fulton Street", until he went broke. After he went out of business he slowly built it back up using our mother as the go between, since nobody would sell directly to him anymore.

Every time our mother would pick up the goods, each order was larger than the next. At 12 years old she was the biggest hosiery buyer in Brooklyn! Nobody knew it was actually for our grandfather until he was back on top, then all was forgiven and he was once again “The Hosiery King.”

Ben was fearless.  He had escaped from Czarist Russia after being drafted into the Russian Army for a 40 year term, so business for him was a piece of cake.  He knew nothing about engines and barely knew how to drive, but he once opened an auto repair shop.  That particular venture ended badly.

In July 1943, after Hy enlisted in the Army, Estelle and Hy got married and headed to California.  While Hy was an electronics instructor in the army, Estelle worked in an aircraft factory helping to build B-17 and B-29 bombers.

Women like her were immortalized as “Rosie the Riveter.”  Through the years she also worked mostly in diners, and restaurants (the Kosloff family business) and in the 1970’s was Head Hostess at the Round Table in Hallandale. One of the Miami area’s largest and most popular restaurants.

Estelle gave birth to, and raised, 3 sons during her marriage, Leslie, Michael and Richard. 3 tries at a girl and no dice.

Estelle was a one guy woman, and Hy was a one woman man. They were happily married for 54 years, up until the day of his death they lived a passionate and sometimes volatile love affair.

Estelle’s defining characteristic, was her relationship with her husband, our father, Hy. They had a partnership based on trust, accomplishment, and a passion that didn't dim, even on Hy’s dying day.

On the last day of his life, Estelle walked into his hospital room, and our father spoke his last words, "I love you!" Then he gave her a little grin.

After Hy died Estelle’s life revolved around her three sons and her Granddaughter, Jackie.

She lived for our 20-years of Sunday breakfasts when the whole family would get together, and she was always ready for a dinner invitation or a party.  Joe’s Stone Crab anyone?

There was no-one we know that didn’t like Estelle. Ever! She was a classy lady, a devoted friend, and always had a kind word for everyone.  All of you that knew her know that she really cared about you.  It wasn’t an act.

She had a strong sense of family and was devastated when her brothers, Elliot and Lionel, died.

The only time she was combative was when someone wronged someone in her family.  Then the fierce force of a Jewish Mother’s determination took over.

Our mother loved life and lived it with passion.  She was a beautiful women and she dressed the part. Everyday, she got all dressed up, put her make-up on, and was ready to go at a moment’s notice.

Up until this past August she was still driving and living an independent life on her own terms.

Not that you would get in the car with her. That thought is enough to put the fear of God in you….assuming you survived the ride. As late as last week she insisted that not only could she still could drive, but she was a good driver. Florida is a safer place today.

We know she was 90 years old, and it’s easy to say she had a great life and it was time, but believe us, she did not go willingly.  She wasn’t done yet.  Maybe another 90 years would have been about right.

Don't be fooled by our tears. We cry for us, and you ... we already miss our mother. We have an empty space in our souls. But we celebrate her life, and remember her with both love and envy.

To the three of us, she was not only Mom.  She was also our best friend. The first person we called with good news. The first person we called with the bad news.  The person that was always there for us, regardless of whether the news was good or bad, and that gave that news meaning.

Our job is to honor her each and every day as if she was standing right there.

When we were kids, we used to crawl into bed with our mother and father, and they would tell us the story of the handsome prince and the beautiful princess that fell in love, and lived happily ever after.

Back then we thought it was just a story. But, when we grew up, we knew that it was true.

So, mom and dad, we will try to carry on your legacy with grace and dignity until we see you again.

Morning Folks!!

No two ways about it, our industry has shrunk quite a bit since 2006-2007. When we talk about domain investors. It has exploded when we talk about the domain industry that is all-inclusive.  That power has never been harnessed.

We may or may not be on the doorstep of great expansion. When I think back to the last domain investors to come into the industry that added value I can only think of a handful of names. Can you think of more?

When I talk about .whatever, I want to make it clear that .Brand is a separate issue. I can see a use for a .brand. However, does not mean it will work, be embraced or even be used. We will see. But it has nothing to do with domain investors. You won't be buying and selling .brand.

So by this time next year we will see expansion and maybe a few collapses. The shrinking will come to an end and we will expand again. But the question that remains is how strong will that expansion be? How sustainable will that expansion be? We all get a front row seat as we watch it all unfold. Not a single one of us has the answer. We just have history to learn from. Some want that history to repeat itself. And it may. I just don't see how because of all the missing elements that make this completely different. The motivation was completely different. The times were different.

With 700 new extensions you would imagine that each extension would attract a new set of domain investors. But will that happen? Other than the registries themselves, I don't know that we will see such a thing. We may be it!

This industry is smaller than you think. Schwartz/Schilling managed only 1500 views in the entire first week. 3 days on top of domaining.com. You would think that would have widespread interest and it does. 1500 persons worth. That's it. That's the core industry and not all them are full-time domain investors. That is where the 500 number comes from and it has dwindled over the years. I told Howard before we released it that we would count viewers in the hundreds not the thousands. I anticipated 1600 myself and so I kinda nailed it.

Now it is up there for many to see throughout the years. Those numbers will climb. But they don't leap. Not yet. They may someday. It's a real time capsule. It has great value. Does not matter which side of the equation you are on, there was real info and now that info meets the test of time. I have writtena blog post about how I saw things and I will post that soon.

So now will 700 gtld's bring a new crop of investors or are we it? Until now I thought that they would bring in NEW domain investors by the boatload. Now I am not so sure. This thing called HUMAN NATURE gets in the middle of everything every time! Together, we all showed up and made it happen. Can they repeat that without relying on the current domain investors? Investors that are overwhelmingly focused on .com and a few others and have shown little appeitite for .Restaurant if there is such an extension.

So the expansion most likely will bring few new domainers. But they will bring 700 gtld's and their staffs. Their staffs alone will DWARF the domain investor community. My lone voice will be a fart in the wind when it all starts. That is why I have taken nearly a year to publish each and every thought before the NOISE begins and it is going to be VERY noisy as they all have a lot on the line and there will be some loud squealing noises for those not doing well.

I love how everyone counts the profit and never even mentions the expenses or advertising budgets or salaries or overhead.

So with 700 extensions you would think that each could get  10-100 NEW domain name  investors and therefore grow the industry by many thousands. I would expect that to happen. But if not, then they are stuck with the 1500 of us and we are shrinking.

So far, only one extension stands alone! And I still believe that .whatever also invites a second look at each of these before they go down that road. That bumpy road that may lead nowhere. Hope not. I want to see a success because I am not threatened by it. None of us are. So believe what you like, but don't buy into that nonsenese.

.com

Morning Folks!!

I have spent over 15 years trying to reach the "Small guy" and I can tell you it is a Herculean task. The task is much harder with the small guy because he has the monkey of Human Nature on his back and it basically controls every move and every decision he or she makes. Very few small guys become big guys because of that one little fact. That one little monkey. There is no greater obstacle than our own human nature and so the first rule of human nature is to blame others for your short falling. Your mistakes. Your failures. #1. UNO!

It should be fighting against human nature and how we are wired. So when we are falling victims of our own crap it is our #1 job to toss that monkey. But if you don't know that is your #1 job, you have to resort to the trap of human nature. You lose.

The reason there is a #1 is because you did not do the real #1. Plan, Prioritize by Considering each and every Variable. Without doing that, your chance of success is no better than a stopped watch. Plan, Prioritize and Consider each and every Variable.

And then when you don't Plan, Prioritize and Consider each and every Variable, you go to the next monkey.

Usually because of some DUMB EXCUSE like these was NO TIME which is #3 on the list of human nature monkeys. No time!!?? Well of course there is no time when you failed to Plan, Prioritize and Consider each and every Variable. You wasted the time you could have had to do what you are excusing.

And as you can see they are all connected. Connected to failure. It is difficult to succeed with these basic obstacles haunting you at each and every stage each and every day.

There was no time because you did not start out with a plan to prioritize and consider each and every variable. You were in a hurry to do it but at the expense of doing it right or successfully. Except if you did it the right way you would not be in a hurry. You would have more than enough time. But, poor time planners that fail at prioritization never have any time to consider the variables. Wonder why!!??

Out of breath? Me too! What a waste of TIME when not used corrected. And while I always use the word "You" in my posts, it is not aimed at you personally but at those "You's" that whatever it is I am talking about applies to. You got that? :-)

So if you don't get these basics down, you will trip over yourself forever. The monkey of human nature will control each and every move you make until you toss that furry friend to the curb. You and your screwed up human nature will be in control as you blame and excuse and fail. Don't you and your family deserve better??

These are the first steps on any ladder to any success. Once there is a monkey on the ladder with you, you lose And guess what? Big Guys, see that monkey that you ignore or may even be invisible to you until right now or may even make you lash out.

Big guys know what to do with those monkeys. Big guys learn how to have those monkeys work FOR them and not against them. Big guys look for monkeys when they hire people, when they sign contracts with people, when they do any type of business with any type of other business. Why? So they can run and do business with somebody with no monkey.

Your monkey is not your pet and is not your friend. He is your human nature obstacle to wherever you want or intend to go or do or accomplish. The detour of your life is sitting on your shoulder. Nobody ever said it was easy to get rid of the monkey. It isn't. So when are you going to start? We all spend a lifetime training that monkey of Human Nature.

Let's call it "National Kill the Monkey on your Shoulder Day"

Rick Schwartz

Morning Folks!!

Grab a cup of coffee and get ready to enjoy Part 2 of a 2-part video that was shot live at T.R.A.F.F.I.C. Some say it was one of the best panels we have had.

Whichever side of gTLD's you come down on, you will love it! About 1400 folks have watched part 1 and there are plenty of comments here and around.

I think you will see it continues to be candid, passionate, respectful and displays the best of our industry debating a true unknown. I hope you enjoy watching it as much as I enjoyed participating in it and I want to thank Frank for agreeing to do it to begin with. It is great theatre and it was sorely needed to give some clarity to what is coming.

Team Schilling was made up of Frank Schilling, Monte Cahn, Jeff Saas, and Tim Johnson. Team Schwartz had Lonnie Borck and yours truly.

Gentlemen, thank you for agreeing to participate in this panel. I am hopeful we will do it again in May. Below is part 2 and HERE is Part 1.

Rick Schwartz