Morning Folks!!
I will state for the record once again that ANY and nearly all new gTLD's will need domainers at their core if they really want to have a chance. That is why I believe most of the new extensions will simply die on the vine and have no meaning or importance whatsoever. That takes care of "Most". But as INVESTORS, it is our job to pick out the one or ones that will lead the pack.
NONE will ever approach .com in OUR lifetimes. Not even a close 2nd will appear.
We will have 2 major groups initially. Investors and flippers. So you will have 1000 flippers flapping away. Don't get pissed. It is just a reality that is coming and you can see from the MOON!! Rubber Duck x 1000. Edward Cline x 10,000. :-) Get ready!
On the other hand "Domain Investors" move more quietly and look at it as accumulating an appreciating asset.
That brings me to my poll from Thursday and this post. As you read the comments a picture appears. And once again DOMAINERS get it RIGHT while many will and ARE getting it wrong.
.Com works because it was the first and is synonymous with the Internet. Over 95% of every major business in the world has their .com and collectively spend billions of dollars druming .com into our consiousness. And it worked!!
Add up all the other advertising dollars for all the other extensions and in ONE DAY .com will outspend what others did collectively in over a YEAR.
Besides that you can put .com at the end of anything and it SOUNDS good. You can not say that with MOST of the new extensions. They are limited in meaning and gluing a keyword to something with NO meaning is a tough road to hoe. I look at most extensions as limited and the last thing you want to do is limit yourself.
So when I asked the question on Thursday, "What are the Top 10 New gTLD’s?" I got a very good amount of opinions and many were common.
Without doubt, the ONE extension that lead the way was .Web.
Only a few others were even mentioned more than once. But ones that were, .Free and .music for example.
.NYC lead the .geo's, only one comment for .LA. I see that mainly because it has already been out for so many years without having much impact. I would say .LA is more dependent on .NYC than any other factor. That said Geo gTLD's seem to have the most support and perhaps the best hope.
The one thing most folks FAIL to ask is WHY does .com rule? Why did .com take off like a rocket and leave .net in the dust? What elements are missing with the new gtld's? Will .net have a second look over .crap?
Some of the answers:
.com was adopted universally by large and small businesses throughout the world. It is synonymous with the Internet like the 800 number is to the telephone.
.com has TRAFFIC that is very valuable and when measured against all other current extensions, has more type ins than all other extensions combined and multiplied. An extension with no traffic is like an oil well with no oil. It is still a well but it ain't worth shit.
So the question for .web is it another .com or another .net?
Then of course you have a VERY BIG problem. Holding back of "Premium" domains in each extension. While registrars and registry's will make money, it won't translate well down the food chain. They are likely the ONLY ones that will see a profit. This takes out the NATURAL DEMAND. Another element that will be missing from the .com formula.
Missing elements? Yes, many. Some are the foundation of .com and KEY to the success of .com and completely MISSING in 99% of the .whatevers. Good luck with that formula. Good luck with IGNORING those KEY elements.
Those missing key elements is why .web lead the way for domain investors when asked which gtld's have a CHANCE to succeed.
So a different recipe GUARANTEES a different outcome.
I DO believe there could be some every powerful phrases that come out. But one or even several of those are not enough to support an entire extension. And while folks throw around big numbers before this all comes into being, those numbers will be a MOUNTAIN to climb for most. Most will be stranded on that mountain like .travel and some will die on the mountain like .mobi. But even those like ME who have jumped on .xxx for example would gladly take those $$$$ back and return those "Premium" domains.
That is why I believe that the gtlds will not only make .com MUCH more valuable but EXPONENTIALLY more valuable. It also has a chance to rescue some of the extensions that have been around for a long time and get a second look.
.Travel may get a second look and probably find the same result as the first look. However, others may do better. .TV, .ME, .Info. Net, .Org. I know many think I will be saying .biz. Sorry, ain't on my list. "B" stringers in my book. Sorry.
The main difference I see is the way domain INVESTORS will look at things and the way domain FLIPPERS will look at things. So I just look at today. Folks email me all day long to flip .co. I am sure there is a market for those names. But it is a very soft and hollow market and getting more than a few hundred dollars is a very hard task if it can be sold at all. Same with .xxx. Demand is just not there. That means prices are soft and likely won't be climbing much if at all. Investor asset or a liability?
So as this all comes closer into focus, we will follow this and the ANTICS that follow. The domain INVESTOR will be the ones picking most of the winners and by not buying, picking the losers as well. And NEVER forget that type-in traffic is still the core of value that DROVE the entire .com train.
I have invested in almost every new extension over the past decade++ and not a single one of them have put me in the black including .me. On the other hand, during those same years, .com has changed my life. I can only hope it happens again!! But I can not ignore evidence that cost me over $1 Million to obtain. That money buys me a STRONG opinion.
Rick Schwartz
Harry L Shields
Good post Rick! One person does not a good test prove, however when it’s a proven veteran of domaining, I believe we all should take notice. We would be better off concentrating on our.com’s and leave the dot.whatever’s to those playing with the Net!
Ovserver
Every year, thousands of new painters are appearing at various art galleries with their paintings all over the world. Yes, their paintings may have some value for barbershop walls kitchen walls. Their paintings have only been increasing the value of Picasso’s works for the past 30 years. 30 years later, only a handful of them will prove to be great artists after they die. Yes, there may be a handful of lucky whatsoevers who will meet the tastes of ‘barbershop owners’, but, even the luckiest ones will never come close to .biz or .info.
Krackon
Using sports cards as just one example, remember how in the late 80’s and early 90’s people were just going crazy about collecting them?
Well, Topps and Fleer had been around for decades and a whole lot of other companies showed up like Upper Deck, etc….. and flooded the market with new brands, even more attractive cards, and lots of inventory. By about 1995 the gig was up and the new cards were basically worthless and the old cards still held their value. Collectors stuck with value and scarcity. Even today, almost 20 years later, those cards from 88′ to 94′ are mostly worthless trash.
Part 1 – System won’t let me post more than this
Rick Schwartz
Part 1 – System won’t let me post more than this.
Thanks!! Danny is working on resolving the problem of the comment word limit.
Krackon
f you look at domains today and the new TLDs you can see the SAME game unfolding — lots of new TLDs, lots of attractive-looking domains, lots of inventory. So, there will be plenty of new “brand” TLD domains to go around, too many in fact. Lot’s of pretty domains, and quite a few “collectors”, but that’s it. When the word gets out that nobody wants them then you will see the same parallel unfold : An exodus to .com, leaving the poor, new TLDs in the dust.
Where are good domains currently scarce? In .com . If you look at any investment it is usually the best of the best that go up five-fold, six-fold, whereas mediocre or lower stuff barely hits 10-20% total appreciation after many years.
I see many of the new TLD investors, ones that were never into domains, moving
to .com after they finally see the light. The rest will just disappear into obscurity.
BullS
I love dot BS!!
thanks dot BS for sponsoring my site.
I love it when you are so right, Rick, so right that those bloggers that have been paid by dot whatever are afraid to post their comments here.
sdfge3
Krackon: The baseball card market deflated for a variety of reasons, not just because ‘more companies entered the fray’.
Complex problems almost never live or die on the basis of a single dynamic. You can pretty much always appraise the intellect of a person if they’re big on ‘ideas’ that insist the addition of one pebble will sink the ship or the removal of one brick will bring down the entire building.
…without naming any names…
JBS
Rick, your post hits the nail on the head and should be considered by any potential “investor” in the new GTLDs.
Stripping away the hype: If the registries decide to hold the mere “handful” of good phrase domains for .insurance, .music, .cars,, etc., then there is nothing to even consider investing in. I think consumers will consider .free as gimmicky. Dot web will never be another .com or .net. It is at best another .biz. For me, the only new GTLds likely worth investing in are the geos, and only on a very small scale. But I plan to continue investing real money in .coms, as bargains can still be found for real gems.
Robin
I like krakons comparison to sports cards. I collected hockey cards at that time with a friend of mine. We looked at the market and concluded that the only player to collect was Wayne Gretzky. I would call him the .com of hockey. Today we have a collection of nearly 20,000(probably the worlds largest of Gretzky) cards and all are Gretzky and all have appreciated or at least held their value not to mention they are a very liquid asset that always has a market. The new tdl’s have many challenges.
Owen Frager
It all depends on another factor: If you’ve got the Mayor of NYC out there promoting .NYC because he had financial incentive to do so, it will succeed. If you tell NYers that the fees on the extension if successful to fund the city services and therefore that third payroll tax that exists barley anywhere else will go back to your pocket then you have the whole working population turned into a defacto salesforce. There needs to be a hook (aka as smart outside the box marketing) and with it you can sell anything.
Peanut Butter
I agree with you 100%, Rick.
All non-.COM’s = big waste of money that could have gone towards an appreciating .COM
Owen Frager
Or advertising dotcom and legitimacy of aftermarket- ridiculous this cartel of insiders horse trading to walk away or split to the tune of hundreds of millions
Owen Frager
walk away or split extensions no one asked for or needs.. I should say
JBS
If these prospective new “keyword” GTLD owners receive offers to get paid to walk away, they should take the money. Am I missing something or did these business people not do the math? Just how many good .rentals, .loans, .parts, etc. domains are even worth registering? Really, try it for yourself. I can only count at most a dozen good phrase combinations for most. Besides the geos and generics, did the rest just box themselves in with such narrowly focused extensions? Where is the mass appeal that should be required? This is where the rubber meets the road. Like Rick says – there are “missing ingredients” necessary for success. This is going to be a train wreck of epic proportions…
BillW
The gTLD program also supports .COM transliterations, as applied for by VeriSign.
If you have the idn.com, you will soon be able to ‘alias’ to the corresponding language:
.คอม. Transliteration of dot com (Thai)
.コム Transliteration of dot com (Japanese)
קום. Transliteration of dot com (Hebrew)
كوم. Transliteration of dot com (Arabic)
.点看 Transliteration of dot com (Simplified Chinese)
.點看 Transliteration of dot com (Traditional Chinese)
.ком Transliteration of dot com (Cyrillic/Russian)
.कॉम Transliteration of dot com, (Hindi)
.닷컴 Transliteration of dot com (Hangul/Korean)
JBS
“The gTLD program also supports .COM transliterations…:” Yeah, but would you personally invest in one of those domains?
This is really good to look at from an investment standpoint. We don’t invest in TLDs, we invest in actual domains. I was considering the geos but thinking it through, even .NYC or .vegas are very limiting domains, as they limit brands to those markets. Even a NYC business owner would likely prefer a dot com for that reason. So, do I really want to invest and wait for a NYC only end user?
That pretty much just leaves defensive GTLD registrations for me, otherwise dot com…
BillW
@JBS
You have to register the idn.com (English) in order to “unlock” its .com equivalent transliteration which is .com in Chinese/ Russian/Hindi/ Arabic/Japanese etc.
These idn.com have been available to register ONLY as com since 2000′ but finally the gTLD program allows VeriSign to transliterate .com to 9 languages in the first round.
They were not designed for people that speak English, but rather those that DON’T speak English to have a more user friendly experience on the internet. People that don’t read or speak English may be more comfortable typing them in their own native language. There are currently over 1,000,000 idn.coms registered that the owners can choose to “alias” to idn.com (com in native languages). In a nutshell its a 2 for 1 deal, you get the English and the Foreign Language.
Carol Rennison
I beg to differ….The .com era is just about to explode by morphing into.shop that is the flap. You heard it hear first!!!! If you want to own a piece of it I own it you may contact me at the address below….
Jeff Reynolds
My apologies for commenting on an old thread, but I never here anyone discussing the biggest factor out there… SEARCH. The TLD will become a major part of search because it will increase revenue for search engines. When you search for something on the web it will increasingly look for the TLD as a place to start. What will rule when a website gets more traffic because of its organic search results? The new TLDs will not die on the vine, but in time ripen.