Morning Folks!!
Some folks don't like me. But it is almost never for what I did to them personally but it is almost always about my thoughts and words. They are pointed, sharp and direct. And they are also accurate as I view the world. So deal with it. Here is a perfect example. Let me piss off MORE folks than I make friends with just by the following LOGICAL thought:
"If you did not see the recession or depression coming what qualifies you to see when it is ending?"
Seems like a fair question from where I sit. If I were looking for an answer to an unknown I would disqualify those that got the big one wrong the first time and at least start with the folks that saw it coming.
Lots of domainers disappeared over the last 5 years. Many others are still struggling to stay afloat. The single biggest reason was they did not see what was coming, were not prepared for it and reality foiled their dreams.
"If you did not see the recession or depression coming what qualifies you to see when it is ending?"
That's a very in your face question since most people did not see it coming they might be offended. So I am on the wrong side of math if I am trying to make friends. When you are like me and don't go along with conventional wisdom you are already at a disadvantage before we start.
Well, I would rather be at a disadvantage, have less friends, then to get things wrong. How's that?
And in 2007/2008 when I did write about it and prepare for it the same people got pissed. It's predictable because human nature has so many folks CONTROLLED instead of them controlling HUMAN NATURE. So who is going to like me when they think I have it upside down? I feel bad that they don't get it. I feel bad that they think I am talking down to them. I feel bad that in fact they are the ones that had it upside down. But they are blind to the energy I use to try and let them see what I see.
So that leaves us with an industry of multiple groups in multiple stages. One that is doing very well. One that has disappeared. One that is struggling for survival. And then there is the new group that comes in at the deepest and darkest times and is aggressive and will be making names for themselves. There are subgroups to that.
So to me it is plain to see that the depth and worst of what we have gone thru is well over. And while it still may take months and years to build up and regenerate, that is exactly what we are doing as the pace of things begin to pickup and before you know it. BOOM! And when the market does flip the switch, even after years it can happen overnight. The tide is rising. Period!
Will there be crisis? You bet!! Lots of bad things are still going to happen. Enjoy!! Profit from it! You make money by predicting an outcome and getting it right because the TIMING was right.
"Take advantage of folks that think it is going to get worse and have bills to pay!"
That made me more friends! Yes? Of course not. But that statement is also a FACT that makes the world go round. So the angry masses think it is more important to be angry with me stating a fact than it is understanding the FACT! That's the point!
Many folks are distracted by shiny objects and easy to be charmed. That made me more friends! Yes? Of course not.
But now lots of good is also happening when compared to nearly 100% stagnation and worse. The economy is a tide that affects all of us in some degree. But just like a surfer learns to ride a wave, YOU can learn how to ride the economy of tides and win no matter what when you step back and see the cycles. Cycles that are natural and cycles caused by man.
I'm just sayin' what I am seein' and from what I see the worst is well over, the summer and fall will begin to accelerate and I think 2014-2016 are gonna be years filled with great growth and opportunity. Folks are sick and tired of being sick and tired and THAT is the point in which things turn around. It does not turnaround everywhere at once. It is area by area and sector by sector. But we are in the midst of a new cycle. There will still be plenty of bumps. But 2009 is GONE, DEAD and BURIED even tho some of the stink lingers and you still see the damage that has been done.
Bottom line. Things ARE moving and shaking out there and that is a lot different from what we have witnessed over the past few years when few moved, few shook and few were buying while many were selling.
And so while 80% will never like me and never consider me a friend, I just LOVE the 20% that get it and do!
Those are the folks that mean the most but most of my energy is used to try to sway some of the 80% to break the shackles of their own thoughts and nature. Why? Because I was them at one time and I know the difference between the two schools as well as anybody else in the 20%. Each and every one of them was an 80%er at some point in their life. Just ask them. But the 80% have yet to be in the 20%.
Believe me I have the ability to win over the 80%. I just tell them what they want to hear whether I believe it or not. I blow smoke up their ass cuz they want to hear what they like. It's like telling a kid a bedtime story. The more they hear what they like the nicer and more charming you are. And that has how much value in BUSINESS?? So the 80% need to learn one thing. Their BIGGEST enemy is hanging out with 80%ers telling them what they want to hear instead of hanging with the 20%ers and figuring out what they are missing. That made me more friends! Yes? Of course not.
Have a GREAT Day!
Rick Schwartz
Calvin Seymour
Tell it like it is Rick :)
Ms Domainer
*
“Love everyone, trust no one”–
At least in business.
One can still be friendly while keeping one eye open and retaining a healthy cynicism.
:)
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steve
I got that book on being good at sales. So far the first 2 chapters have setup a guy selling all he owns and getting it in all gold. Then getting ready to give it all away. Oh yea and the beginning he talks about not being a sheep but a lion…
Great story but I hope it gets to the scrolls and the sales tips better be dam good.
Krishna
Only few people have the ability to foresee the events. Those who can’t have that ability struggle to understand. That’s the beauty of business cycles.
UFO
I had the same experience in business school when I realised that most students were damned naive. They’d prepare answers to business cases and never have proper defences for when the situation didn’t pan out as they planned. Imagine these accountants leading you into battle with no contingence or withdrawal strategy. It’s the same mindset that too many people have when they take a short cut across a park at night and wonder why they get mugged.
If you have a divergent mindset and you talk to sequential thinkers then you’re always going to have a problem. (Sometimes I refer to the divergent v convergent mindset). In Jung psych they call it Intuition versus sensing.
You’ll notice with the 80-90% that their mindsets are not open enough to embrace a statement/solution that conflicts with their own poorly developed logic framework… hence the tendency just to slag you off in one sentence. It’s a laugh, just humour them and play them until their little bulb explodes.
Aaron Strong
Your “tide” analogy of the economy is perfect. However the tide does not rise and fall to consistent levels. The tide is always shifting. Economy too. I respectfully disagree with your economic outlook for several years. There is storms that could make the tide pound the rocks.
Rick's Guide to Making Friends in Business. LOL! - The Domain Name Game
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BullS
The only good friends are the friends that are naked with me in the hot tub talking about anything we want.
Kassey
Well said, Rick. I always remember the late John Templeton’s observation: “Bull markets are born on pessimism. They rise on skepticism, mature on optimism, and then die on euphoria.” The best time to buy is when everybody is pessimistic!
Anita
Rick you do try your best … but human nature of being impatient, slackers, fearful, jealous, averse to risk and short sighted will probably keep the 80% where they are. Outlook on that expectation … probably cloudy :-) Wonder if there is something like business quotient? I think you are trying to teach how to improve on that to the masses. I’ve also often noticed that many well educated people don’t get stuff that’s as clear as glass to a few.
Jeepgirl
One thing I know for sure, is every time I read your words, I learn something!
The way I see it, Rick, you are much like the brilliant doctor with a grumpy beside manner. When it comes to domains and business, you are brilliant and have an insight that most folks only dream of. So what if you are blunt and bold…. you are usually right. =)
As long as you keep writing, I will keep reading! Thank you.
Red
I’m confused…you were saying the economic outlook was bad for 2013 in your post on November 13th, 2012.
Rick Schwartz
Red,
It is bad. But it is better than what is was and here is a snipet of what I said which is 100% consistent with my view today.
“Now NEVER confuse bad economic times with opportunity. There will also be lots of opportunity. People have less money, their debt is going to rise again and at some point there is a risk of going bust.”
Plus 7 months have passed and more information is available. Each day I adjust to new info. I think the second half of 2013 is going to be pretty decent. That does not mean things are good. But decent means more business and more cash flow and more opportunity and that is what is needed for expansion.
2009 was bad because the business of business came to a screatching halt besides all the other facotrs going on.
Booms are localized. South Beach has the highest prices in history and has been roaring through the recession. While the city of Miami, right across the bay, had THOUSANDS of empty condo units. Brand new. Guess what? As bad or as good as it was in each place, there was opportunity in each place. Now those condos in the city are being filled and prices are going up. That’s the right direction.
Detroit may be a bit tougher to find that dynamic. But even there I am sure there is some opportunity.
There are lots of crosswinds as well. This is not a pure recovery by any measure. But there is movement and that is key.
Red
Thanks Rick. I disagree…I think this is an economic head fake. In my opinion, (take with a big bag of salt), the economy is on a sugar high right now. I put my cash in a short term corporate bond fund and stayed out of the stock market. It will be interesting to see if you are right..I do not think you nor I can predict the overall macro future…
Since I have you here…did you see Eric Borgo’s blog post “10 reasons why I am eager to sell my domains” – I disagree with him but there’s always a chance he will be right…smart guy…however as you say…all these other domain extensions will only cement the .com extension…
Roberto
@Red
Rick sold domain names 100X the price he paid, did the Candy deal for millions cash + % of the company (that means thousands per year), leases domains for 1000X the parking revenues and you try to compare him to Borgos?
Are you trying to compare 100X domains to short term corporate bonds that pay few %?
Borgos is a mini-site builder and high volume domain name flipper.
Borgos’ 10 reasons are the same old reasons every domain name flipper gives when he can’t make a profit from buying and parking thousands domains.
1) Facebook and Twitter have always been a concern but today, even with billions of people using these tools, good domains are priced higher than ever.
2) New Tlds like .canon or .boston will never beat camera.com or boston.com…
Tv and radio ads for http://www.info.boston? O.co numbers clearly show that at least 6 users out 10 will type info.boston.com…
3) Buying premium keyword domain names to park them for pennies?
4) Getting sued is typical of flippers who own thousands of parked domains with trademark infringement issues.
5) If a domain name isn’t worth a 100 USD per 10 years renewal fees than it means it’s just the “pigeon sh*t” Rick writes about all the time.
6) Borgos believes there is a correlation between general economy and domain name values. This is true for high volume flippers with thousands domains on parking and minisites. Yet, people like Rick closed outstanding deals during the crisis and companies with premium keyword domains are growing XX% per year. Check INC500…
7) Online auctions are for other domain name flippers. You can’t expect to make a Candy-like deal with other domain flippers.
8) Borgos admits that flipping is not his core business, but this means that flipping is not the right way to work with domain names, not that all domain names have no future because you can’t flip them. Or, maybe you bought the wrong domain names so you can’t flip them now. This beacause, while domain flippers can’t sell, premium keyword domain names owners receive offers every day of the week…
9) Borgos used great domain names as he did with mini-sites: just as an article directory. And he even says that the right person could make great amounts of money using the domain name the right way. So, the problem are not the great domain names but the way he used to develop them.
10) When writing about premium domain names he says: “I was not able to make any money at all by developing them”. This doesn’t prove the premium domains have no value. This proves the way he developed “added no value” to them.
Red
Rick and Eric are both smart guys…i’m with you – if the domain is good hold long term for the right buyer
Hidden Review
roberto thanks, a very detailed explanation. thumb for you