Morning Folks!!
I have talked about "Noise" for many years. But I've been especially focused on the noise the last 12 months because you could see the noise coming a year or more away. And now we are entering the noisy zone. 2014.
For me the noise is equal to Bullshit. Noise equals bullshit. There's good bullshit and then misleading bullshit. Guess which one we are witnessing?
How do you navigate through all this noise and all this bullshit? As you see stories are being fed everywhere about the death of dot com and pretty obvious who is feeding those stories. I don't think it does them any good. I think it makes them look silly and desperate. I think this is about the dumbest thing I've ever seen. And it's just noise. They keep repeating the same noise trying to brainwash you that black is white. And they all own it. Together, they own it. That is just how it is and will unfold.
You think this is going to be a fun year? Think again. Some of you won't know which way is up pretty soon if you don't find some safe and noiseless zone to operate out of.
So I think the biggest job in 2014 is tuning out the noise and digging for facts and parallels. You have to turn to your inner strength. You have to recognize reality from wishful thinking. Bottom-line, people will do what's in their own best self-interest. That's it nothing more nothing less. And the noise proves it. And the pitch will get worse.
This is just the beginning of the noise. Releasing sporadic pieces of noise. But what does it look like when 900 are chirping at the same time? They come together and I think we can go down together. I think with the exception of a handful you are witnessing one of the greatest failures of all time. This could be an epic global failure concocted by certain folks for the wrong reasons and still to play out.
I can just speak for myself. But the noise is a turn off. The noise is an act of desperation before it even starts. If the desperation as you see it, and it's obvious, is now what will the desperation look like when they go deeper into the hole? I'm sorry this just goes against every business principle I have ever seen in my entire life. It's foolhardy for the majority of them so everything you are about to hear will be as true as dot com is dying. That line will come back to bury them. It's hard to take any of it seriously when you start with BULLSHIT! This is turning into their #1 marketing scheme. Pretty weak and many are going to lose their credibility each time they repeat it.
The scariest part to me is the real Achilles tendon in all this is that they keep talking for the little guy. We are all told about the little guy. It's the little guy, the little Guy. Bullshit, bullshit, bullshit! Has nothing to do with the little guy whatsoever. Has nothing to do with their wallets. Does it?
If it really had to do with the little guy then every single one of them would have a disclaimer. A warning. An alert. Please beware. Potential great leak from this extension to the dot com counterpart. Then I would give them a link like THIS so that the poor guy they are so worried about won't be needlessly hurt by losing 61% of his ad dollars that he can't afford and will likely put him out of business. I don't know a company on earth that can absorb that loss in the long run.
I am allergic to bullshit. How about you? You like swallowing it? Some of you need the help. Go get a bullshit vaccine before it is too late. Lonnie Borck got it 100% right! They have to sell you something or they go out of business.
If you don't buy into their vision and blue sky, they will die on the vine. I think the first time I used that "Die on the vine" line, some did not believe it or understand it. I absolutely guarantee you that by this time next year you will be an EXPERT of things dying on the vine. Sorry, I just want to be on record.
I think if Frank, Paul and Daniel were not involved, none of us would even be considering this seriously. I think the entire tone would be quite different. The conversation would be quite different. I wish them all well. I wish you well whatever your decision is. Whatever your choice. I wish you great success.
But I ain't buying into this nonsense. 900 knockoffs trying to duplicate something that was unique at a unique moment in history.
Our job is still to separate the noise from fact and reality. Is that not true?
Just go in with eyes wide open. Then when the "news releases" about this sale or that sale come out designed strictly to pump up their own sales, ask yourself is that from the same source feeding the dot com is dead stories everywhere? Don't be a sucker when that happens and I guarantee it will happen just like the volume of the noise will get so loud you will just want to cover your ears in the months ahead. 900 squakers fighting for their very survival and how many will be meaningful in a year from now? Two years? Five years? How many will survive the first year? How many won't? How many will have to be consolidated? How many will have to be taken over? How many will find nobody to take them over? How many won't even care?
Many more questions than answers. And the answers are sometimes no answers, just .noise.
If you don't buy what they sell, game over. Pass the .Kool-Aid.
Rick Schwartz
Gypsum Fantastic
One of my .com domains which usually earned about $20 per year from parking is this year on track for $200. The reason for the change? A company is now using the .co version of my .com. I expect the same will happen if there ends up being a .whatever version of my .com.
Harry L Shields
Rick, With over 250 million domains being registered and over half dot.com’s and dot.net’s how could any sane person believe that they could bullshit their way into changing that equation? My belief is that it would take north of $500 million dollars to even make a significant entry. To the best of my knowledge not a single gTLDer
is able or willing to risk that amount. I think the best thing to do is just put on a set of Dr. Dre headphones, kick back and keep the dot.com revenue coming in. On a side note, the “Domain King” original song is coming along and I have found a great trio to record it.
DomainTruthTeller
I bet you thought the (con) in NamesCon stood for conference? No it’s a big brainwashing con job where 400 newly minted suckers will come back singing the praises of gTLD.
nobody
They talk about the little guy to start a new business because it’s the only ‘plausible’ thing they can add to explain why they do it, when in reality all they wait for is defensive registrations from the EXISTING businesses who already have their DOMAINS.
Ramahn
“they keep talking for the little guy. We are all told about the little guy. It’s the little guy, the little Guy. Bullshit, bullshit, bullshit!”
Code for ‘the new guy’ (sucker) that will buy into all of this. All of the keyword.gtlds that make any sense (you know, the ones the gtld guys always use as examples in their sales pitches), will be labled premium and have premium price tags to go along with it for “the little guys”. I guess these little guys will need big wallets.
Jeff Schneider
Guys like Frank and others are counting on the Tech Wonks buying their Kool-Aid. That’s Ok because all Online businesses will awaken to the fact that there is a huge disconnect between Marketing Strategy, and Tech Strategy in the online business psyche. A survey by KPMG found that only 5% of execs say their online business strategy and technology are 100% aligned. Lots of Tech Wonks, the other 95% are being asked to make Marketing Strategy decisions and completely missing the boat for online marketing strategies. ” Bridging the gap between an organizations business strategy and technology is critical to implementing operating models that will enable market place success in coming years.”
The traffic bleed rate will send many gTLD experimenters to the .COM Business Model for lifesaving transfusions. So few companies we are currently talking to realize that they need to get this right. Gratefully, Jeff Schneider (Contact Group) (Metal Tiger
DonnyM
If you’re building a company on another extension other than .com you just look cheap and not trustworthy. It will take a good 5 years for even a handful of these new extensions to get accepted. But who has that much time? Love the noise and negativity let them run around like chickens. In the end they will get eaten:)
For the record, .web, app and .bet if I decide to jump in with a few names. Other than that no way. Way to many .com’s that you can still buy that get traffic.
Problem is they are going to be asking 4 to 5 figures for generic terms in these extensions, so at that point why not just pick up a .com, Pricing and trust= Doom.
Donny
Kassey
I’ll be trying to find meaningful patterns (opportunities) in the noise.
Robbie
Here is the funny thing, I see these guys give interviews and even themselves they are speaking of gtld’s and they keep saying .com by accident. DOT COM runs so deep it defies even their train of thought.
Hypocrites who speak of helping the little guy, and then they price whatever.crap for thousands of dollars in an unproven concept, who are they really helping?
Yes, they have millions invested, so that means they need to get tens of millions out to break even after paying all the bills. Only way to do this, is to sell a hoop dream, or have the backing of an army of domainers who will hand register, and hold their domains for the next 5-10 years so they can sustain operations for the time being in hopes of getting any traction from Joe Public.
It is a sad disgrace to see some of these web pioneers turn themselves into little cheerleaders of impending doom.
Anunt
u domainers need to get ur head out of ur asses and think like an average joe to understand new gTLDs…
Since joe.com is taken, the average joe is now going to register joe.sexy or joe.blog just for building a personal fun site and NOT to make millions from it…
Registry owners will make money…joe.com owner will get little more free traffic from leakage…but the average joe does NOT give a fuck about that traffic…he is just building a site on joe.sexy or joe.blog for fun…he is NOT trying to build the next Facebook out of joe.sexy …
so u domainers need to get ur head out of your asses and just relax..,
average joe is not trying to compete with your joe.com so fucking relax!!!
Inland
Have you lost your mind? Seriously? You are puking disparaging remarks about a domain name conference and attendees?
Maybe you should focus on building your .com empire and let everyone else develop their desert area second home properties. I hear that there are even golf courses and swimming pools at some of these seconds homes.
gTLDs
@Inland
Even I had a wry smile at the notion of NamesCon promoting gTLDs…. Probably better calling it NamesCom. NamesHorse NamesXYZ does have the same ring….
Inland
@gTLDs
Industry collegiality is important even when there are reasons for disagreement. Despite a perceived naming imperfection, it appears that the upcoming conference will see attendance from 450+ top business professionals. The event is an opportunity to promote the entire domain space, and, undoubtedly, subsequent conferences in 2014 will benefit from the increased publicity surrounding domain names, generally. I look forward to attending other upcoming events, too.
s. mugavero
Most of them are on the “Burn Rate Model”… Raised money, going forward, slim to no profits, fixed expenses, After the first few months, they could forecast the their date of death.
Jeff Schneider
Hello Rick,
At NamesCon the band onstage will be singing songs to the little guy, portending Equality. While on the back of the stage they will be peddling extensions with disconnects from online transacting consumers, or severe traffic Inequality. This will help ? or bury the little guy ?
Gratefully, Jeff Schneider (Contact Group) (Metal Tiger)
Tom Twitty
Rock and Roll with the Dot Com’s song.