Morning Folks!!
No two ways about it, our industry has shrunk quite a bit since 2006-2007. When we talk about domain investors. It has exploded when we talk about the domain industry that is all-inclusive. That power has never been harnessed.
We may or may not be on the doorstep of great expansion. When I think back to the last domain investors to come into the industry that added value I can only think of a handful of names. Can you think of more?
When I talk about .whatever, I want to make it clear that .Brand is a separate issue. I can see a use for a .brand. However, does not mean it will work, be embraced or even be used. We will see. But it has nothing to do with domain investors. You won't be buying and selling .brand.
So by this time next year we will see expansion and maybe a few collapses. The shrinking will come to an end and we will expand again. But the question that remains is how strong will that expansion be? How sustainable will that expansion be? We all get a front row seat as we watch it all unfold. Not a single one of us has the answer. We just have history to learn from. Some want that history to repeat itself. And it may. I just don't see how because of all the missing elements that make this completely different. The motivation was completely different. The times were different.
With 700 new extensions you would imagine that each extension would attract a new set of domain investors. But will that happen? Other than the registries themselves, I don't know that we will see such a thing. We may be it!
This industry is smaller than you think. Schwartz/Schilling managed only 1500 views in the entire first week. 3 days on top of domaining.com. You would think that would have widespread interest and it does. 1500 persons worth. That's it. That's the core industry and not all them are full-time domain investors. That is where the 500 number comes from and it has dwindled over the years. I told Howard before we released it that we would count viewers in the hundreds not the thousands. I anticipated 1600 myself and so I kinda nailed it.
Now it is up there for many to see throughout the years. Those numbers will climb. But they don't leap. Not yet. They may someday. It's a real time capsule. It has great value. Does not matter which side of the equation you are on, there was real info and now that info meets the test of time. I have writtena blog post about how I saw things and I will post that soon.
So now will 700 gtld's bring a new crop of investors or are we it? Until now I thought that they would bring in NEW domain investors by the boatload. Now I am not so sure. This thing called HUMAN NATURE gets in the middle of everything every time! Together, we all showed up and made it happen. Can they repeat that without relying on the current domain investors? Investors that are overwhelmingly focused on .com and a few others and have shown little appeitite for .Restaurant if there is such an extension.
So the expansion most likely will bring few new domainers. But they will bring 700 gtld's and their staffs. Their staffs alone will DWARF the domain investor community. My lone voice will be a fart in the wind when it all starts. That is why I have taken nearly a year to publish each and every thought before the NOISE begins and it is going to be VERY noisy as they all have a lot on the line and there will be some loud squealing noises for those not doing well.
I love how everyone counts the profit and never even mentions the expenses or advertising budgets or salaries or overhead.
So with 700 extensions you would think that each could get 10-100 NEW domain name investors and therefore grow the industry by many thousands. I would expect that to happen. But if not, then they are stuck with the 1500 of us and we are shrinking.
So far, only one extension stands alone! And I still believe that .whatever also invites a second look at each of these before they go down that road. That bumpy road that may lead nowhere. Hope not. I want to see a success because I am not threatened by it. None of us are. So believe what you like, but don't buy into that nonsenese.
.com
.Rick Schwartz
Observer
Here is my humble opinion. Investment will be limited to some high quality .com names. That’s all about domain investment period. New whatevers will not create new meaningful investment demand. Too risky for investment. However, they will manage to absorb some end-user demand from the existing whatevers. Why should end-users be content with exapmpleabc.net when they can easily acquire example.web or abc.web? Yes, “easily” from the abundant pool of 700 candidates anxiously queuing up to be selected.
Domenclature.com
I fully concur. Excellent post.
Domenclature.com
@Observer
“Why should end-users be content with exapmpleabc.net when they can easily acquire example.web or abc.web?:”
Why would media/advertising, or any serious business spend hundreds of thousands of dollars to be in any art of New York, when they can have Main St Kansas for peanuts? I guess because business is done in New York.
The regular consumer that wants a free URL, can get it now of Twitter, Facebook, Blogspot, and so on.
The rest want a .com for myriads of reasons, each unique in their own way. People want the extension that Google, Youtube, Microsoft, Apple, Linkedin, Godaddy, etc etc uses.
Remember, newly launched TLDs have tried the gimmick of giving away their extensions to these business/entertainment/popular giants. The average consumer simply yawned, and kept their focus, and destination on the .com. It’s hard wired in the US at least leave the internet to the dot com, just like they leave doing taxes to HR Block.
DonnyM
These other extensions really have nothing to offer on the backend. You used to pay for email not you don’t. You used to pay storage now you get “Free Storage”. You used to pay for for domain names now you won’t. I am sure google and amazon are going give it all away and then some. These guys running these new extensions better have something more than a $10 dollar domain name to offer the consumer.——- Remember they already most of your CC and emails on file.
Picture a website, Free storage, your own branded email, blog all set up in 1 minute. These new extensions will target your normal everyday user not a business owner. And really who has 10 years to wait and see if the new extensions really makes it. Some of these guys will make money but if it fails they make even more money if the own the .com version. One big insurance policy. Talk about hedging your bets. It’s really funny to watch. More funny to watch unfold.
Mr. T.
As a domain investor & developer, the Schwartz/Schilling videos restored my optimism for .com and our industry. If our industry expands because of the new gTLDs, I hope the new investors realize the job they’re buying!
BullS
I love this Domaining business.
Not only domaining will grow bigger, it will add lots of confusions and when there are confusions, people like us will make more money.
“Outsmarting the fools”
Just like the legal industry, the more confusion the law is, the more business the attorneys make.
More layers of govt BS, more job opportunities!
Gene
Here’s the reality, as we approach the end of 2013:
The dot-com extension is so ingrained in consumers’ psyche that we’ve reached a tipping point in terms of need-to-have.
The absence of a dot-com for any real player – or aspiring player – in ANY marketing campaign (let alone their primary website), is a death-blow to their reputation.
Marketers do finally ‘get it’ – they will be viewed as a tier-2 or tier-3 market participant if they DO NOT launch a campaign with the right dot-com. period, end of discussion.
Leonard Britt
What does a 25% decline (projected) in .Info registrations over 2012/2013 tell you about the need/desire/want for 700 new TLDs?
Domain Buyer Broker
xc
Domain Buyer Broker
As far as the state of the market… the domain investor is pretty much out of the market.
All markets need a dealer, someone who buys to resell. Domain investors are the dealers of the domain industry.
Know anyone who is buying domains right now? I don’t.
So, you have end user buyers who have an idea, passion, marketing need etc etc so they come in and want THAT ONE domain. I see it all the time as a domain buyer broker. They don’t want the dash. They don’t want the .net.
Domain Buyer Broker
I went to an auction at Skinners last weekend to see a high end antique clock auction. The great stuff went for LOTS of money. The decent stuff was severely discounted. The lower end stuff (and these are nice clocks offered by high end auction house to a worldwide audience) was selling for cheap money.
The dealers are out the clock market (and the antiques market for the most part) so there is no middle man to support prices.
So, we have very high end sales, some middle of the road sales at discounted prices and then everything else.
Domain Buyer Broker
The sell signal has been out for several years on domains because there are no dealers/resellers.
(sorry, realized my comment was too long causing error in comment section)
patrick
@Domain Buyer Broker. web-design.com Sold $38,500 i guess some people do want the dash.
Domain Buyer Broker
Scott Day owns WebDesign.com and he’s using it. I imagine the buyer approached him and got a $100k+ price. So they bought the dash and paid PLENTY for it.
Kassey
Common sense is returning to the domain industry. From now on, a domain name including its extension must make sense.
UFO
My belief is that while 1and1 and the other registries pump the new TLDs they will get some traction, but this traction is costing them plenty. It isn’t natural advertising (like natural type in’s) it’s bought and paid for.
At the moment I am sure they are guessing that paying an average of say $50 in advertising per new domain is worth it because they are gaining a life time income stream. But in reality if they are making only $1 per domain per year then the advertising looks pretty unsustainable on cost/benefit.
My belief there is going to be this initial euphoria and buying and then the advertising will stop and come renewal time loads will be dumped. We’ve pretty much seen it all before.
If .shop is avail for public purchasing then I could clearly see it on advertising. It works. But I think Amazon etc will keep it all for themselves. .web will eventually be on par with a .net. But .com will always be the one to want. .online will be like an .info. .blog has no commercial inclinations so it’s pretty much valueless.
My guess is there will just be .com and then everything else.
Outside the US there will be .com the cctld and then everything else.
One thing that nobody has really mentioned is that there are only so many decent sized companies with enough cash and sales to want and make use of a domain name / website. I think the conveyor belt of small businesses migrating to .com as they grow will continue and while this current round of TLDs will make an initial dent I think the impact won’t be strong enough and sustained enough to change users’ attitudes.
UFO
Nb: When I talk about .shop making a decent dent I am talking about the natural advertising that would occur from its use. Not the advertising from the likes of 1and1 to generate domains being bought.
Few of the URLs have the potential to accumulate enough ‘in-use’ to gain any traction in consumers recall. It should also be remembered that consumers only have so much ‘memory’ allocatable for domain name extension recall and any traction by any new TLD basically has to gain it from .com or the cctld.
.shop and .web can but the rest, sorry.
Kassey
A pastor/friend wanted to start a nw ministry. When I explained to him the nature of the virtual world (Internet) being global, he understood it immediately, so I helped him register his first domain name .com and plus of course .nz because he can see the need to go beyond NZ one day. I guess many people has this similar aspiration. They may start local, but eventually they would like to go global. When I explained to him once a .com/domain name is gone, it may be gone forever, he got it and so registered the .com that matches the name of his ministry, even though he has no immediate plan of developing it.
John Poole
Excellent point Leonard. The portfolio I manage only has 1 .info, and that is only because the name was needed for defensive legal purposes–it forwards to a different name dot com website–and the dot com, dot net, and dot org extensions were not available.
Samit
Yeah, I don’t see any resellers buying domains either. Even big portfolio holders have slowed down or completely stopped aftermarket purchases.
Altaf
I feel, if US government took interests and there are middlemen to promote ccTLD, then only .US could rise. I kept some solid names to see what happened as ad power is with America despite BRIC rise.
Altaf
I found the following news: is it true?
CANDY.COM Named Winner of the ‘We Get It!’ Award at Internet Industry Domain Conference
Greg Balestrieri and Joe Melville co-founders of CANDY.COM recognized by key players in the domain name industry for understanding the power of generic domain names. CANDY.COM was purchased for $3 Million and was the second-highest domain sale of 2009 behind $5.1 million paid by Toys “R” Us Inc. for toys dot com.
Link: http://fcx.asia/a769227-candy-com-named-winner-of-the-we.cfm
NEIL
Dear Ladies & Gentlemen, from domainersnews.com, and domainingforum.org:
Earlier today started the ICANN CIRCUS, a lottery where you pay from $39.99 to $1,199.99 for .uno, .menu, .luxury and .build.
Pay now a lot of money and you will have nothing, just the hope that the nonsense domain will belong to you in February 200-late…
Happy Circus…
Jeff Schneider
Hello Rick,
Shrinking ? Hardly
The online .COM franchises, worldwide continue to set Online record payments that funnel through the worlds .COM profit center channels. No other extensions even come close to the massive Online Payments that funnel through .COM Franchises. Alibaba.com processed 5.75 Billion $ through its network and thats 2 1/2 times cyber monday online payments.
Altaf
@Jeff
Thanks for bringing that stat. How much Paypal.com, Ebay.com , Amazon.com or many other online portals transacted? Any folks have this stats.please?
Gratefully, Altaf
Jeff Schneider
@ Altaf,
We find it very telling when the Chinese Online business Day record just recently set, has not even been mentioned in the domainer blogosphere.
Thats 5,75 Billion $ ( In ONE Day)
Gratefully, Jeff Schneider (Contact Group) (Metal Tiger)
Steve Mugavero
great analogy….. plus controversy sells.