Morning Folks!!
No two ways about it, our industry has shrunk quite a bit since 2006-2007. When we talk about domain investors. It has exploded when we talk about the domain industry that is all-inclusive. That power has never been harnessed.
We may or may not be on the doorstep of great expansion. When I think back to the last domain investors to come into the industry that added value I can only think of a handful of names. Can you think of more?
When I talk about .whatever, I want to make it clear that .Brand is a separate issue. I can see a use for a .brand. However, does not mean it will work, be embraced or even be used. We will see. But it has nothing to do with domain investors. You won't be buying and selling .brand.
So by this time next year we will see expansion and maybe a few collapses. The shrinking will come to an end and we will expand again. But the question that remains is how strong will that expansion be? How sustainable will that expansion be? We all get a front row seat as we watch it all unfold. Not a single one of us has the answer. We just have history to learn from. Some want that history to repeat itself. And it may. I just don't see how because of all the missing elements that make this completely different. The motivation was completely different. The times were different.
With 700 new extensions you would imagine that each extension would attract a new set of domain investors. But will that happen? Other than the registries themselves, I don't know that we will see such a thing. We may be it!
This industry is smaller than you think. Schwartz/Schilling managed only 1500 views in the entire first week. 3 days on top of domaining.com. You would think that would have widespread interest and it does. 1500 persons worth. That's it. That's the core industry and not all them are full-time domain investors. That is where the 500 number comes from and it has dwindled over the years. I told Howard before we released it that we would count viewers in the hundreds not the thousands. I anticipated 1600 myself and so I kinda nailed it.
Now it is up there for many to see throughout the years. Those numbers will climb. But they don't leap. Not yet. They may someday. It's a real time capsule. It has great value. Does not matter which side of the equation you are on, there was real info and now that info meets the test of time. I have writtena blog post about how I saw things and I will post that soon.
So now will 700 gtld's bring a new crop of investors or are we it? Until now I thought that they would bring in NEW domain investors by the boatload. Now I am not so sure. This thing called HUMAN NATURE gets in the middle of everything every time! Together, we all showed up and made it happen. Can they repeat that without relying on the current domain investors? Investors that are overwhelmingly focused on .com and a few others and have shown little appeitite for .Restaurant if there is such an extension.
So the expansion most likely will bring few new domainers. But they will bring 700 gtld's and their staffs. Their staffs alone will DWARF the domain investor community. My lone voice will be a fart in the wind when it all starts. That is why I have taken nearly a year to publish each and every thought before the NOISE begins and it is going to be VERY noisy as they all have a lot on the line and there will be some loud squealing noises for those not doing well.
I love how everyone counts the profit and never even mentions the expenses or advertising budgets or salaries or overhead.
So with 700 extensions you would think that each could get 10-100 NEW domain name investors and therefore grow the industry by many thousands. I would expect that to happen. But if not, then they are stuck with the 1500 of us and we are shrinking.
So far, only one extension stands alone! And I still believe that .whatever also invites a second look at each of these before they go down that road. That bumpy road that may lead nowhere. Hope not. I want to see a success because I am not threatened by it. None of us are. So believe what you like, but don't buy into that nonsenese.
.com
.Rick Schwartz
Recent Comments