Morning Folks!!
Each day the gTLD rollout gets a little clearer to me. Last night was the first time I ever went down the list of those hundreds of extensions. Some of these folks are going nowhere. Their extensions are so limited, I have no idea what they are thinking. Selling hundreds of thousands? Millions? I think maybe they will get a few hundred. Some of the extensions are that bad.
I am still musing over .accountant and .accountants. No confusion there!
In less than 2 weeks Team Schwartz vs Team Schilling will rumble at TRAFFIC!
This tag team match will toss it all around. We will debate gTLD's and Frank and his team will tell you what they see and me and my team will tell you why they are looking at it wrong. It will be fun. it will be lively and it will be packed!
I have not picked my team yet. Contact me if you would like to joining Team Schwartz or Team Schilling.
Frank will be joined by Monte Cahn from Rightofthedot.com, Jeffrey Sass of .CLUB and 1 other operator. I will be joined by just 1 other domainer still to be named.
There will be a boxing ring placed in the middle of the seminar hall.
Just kidding about the boxing ring!
Seriously, this is going to be fun and exciting and it just may STEAL the show! The byproduct may be clarity!
Rick Schwartz
Steven Hartley
I was also scratching my head with the large majority of those extensions, I wouldn’t see why anyone would want .green, .red, .kosher etc as there extension to get online. I personally like the .app one though!
Anita
Hope you get that all on video :-) and post it here for those who aren’t present at TRAFFIC. Can’t wait to hear everything about it after the event.
Joel
I must say I wonder if i’m alone here but I basically couldn’t care less about these new GTLD’s. Every time I see a new article on them I just seem to ignore them.
To me they are confusing and will leak traffic to the .com if not .org etc. depending on the domain/brandability etc.
I think some of them may do very well but overall I don’t hold out high hopes for most of them. To me they are overpriced, confusing and not worth spending too much time on. They will need a serious marketing campaign to win over dinosaurs like me.
UFO
Use Nike as an example. It won’t want to use shoes.nike on its advertising as it sounds wrong, it may be interested in obtaining nike.shoes on a new shoes TLD but because its a registered trademark that will be at cost.
I’m not sure how Frank et al think there’s going to be a revolution based on domain names.Its more likely to come from browsers acting as SEs and users just typing into the browser ‘nike shoes’ and the link to that direct spot automatically comes up. Effectively Google via Crome could ‘sell’ this type of function to major brands. You have to have a browser to be on the net before you even use a URL.
UFO
Nb: I am sure Google already knows this but prefers the adwords model, but its hand may well be forced via MS Firefox etc if they start attacking their SE by this method. (If anyone has been watching browsers slowly but surely have become more and more predictive).
LSM
One has to beware of ‘clerical insight’.
There is no doubt Schilling is a genius and is DEFINITELY the brightest guy in this space. Still, nobody has flawless insight. Wasn’t he in buy mode at the peak of the domain market? And wasn’t he likewise a notoriously hard sell for the domains he owned when the market-metabolism for domains was MUCH higher than it is now? I made a post on his blog a couple years back about buying REOs in 2010. His response was: “All that said, I do not find the present real world as bargain rich as you do.. I’m looking and I don’t see those deals. Las Vegas foreclosures notwithstanding.” Oops. 2010 is now pretty much universally recognized as being the most absurdly bargain-rich RE environment in generations. He is a genius but nobody’s right all the time. One thing’s for sure. He is definitely putting his money where his mouth is and he’s someone worth paying close attention to. He’s going to be right way more often than he’s wrong.
Ron Clayman
Schilling is looking like a fool here. It is obvious that he is just trying to victimize the public. It just shows you how strong GREED can be. The guy is quickly going from a legendary domainer to a legendary SHILL for crap. Some people have no shame. It is hard to imagine someone with the reputation he has is willing to go down the road of scammer. This is a valuable business lesson. He is trying to sell to the public something that he would never buy himself.
Shame on him. He will fail miserably, and nobody will ever take a word he says seriously after this. It was his choice, and his reputation is essentially ruined, since he is willing to destroy less savvy people with his GARBAGE. What a joke this guy turned out to be.
UFO
@Ron Clayman
Think you’re being a bit more than overly harsh. I do actually ‘get’ the vision they have, but I also have the practical business experience in large corporates to see how it really plays out. The marketing people don’t rule the roost and if they can think they can get a whole company to turn on its head for some tag/bootstrap lines of marketing they are wrong. Finance, Operations will literally tell them to ^^^^ off and concentrate on what delivers value to the bottom line. (They won’t say that exactly but they’ll think it…lol).
.com is the PERFECT tld for commerce. What are these new TLDs bringing to the table that solves a problem with the .com? Nothing. They are effectively being suckered into a notion that all these NON commercial TLDs being used by NON commercial companies will make Commercial companies migrate away from a Commercial TLD.
All the NON commercial TLDs won’t affect .com in the slightest and any Commercial .com entities will use these new whatever TLDs for a bit of marketing segmentation and analysis. The .COM brand will NEVER change, the bootstrap lines of .whatevers may help with a brand refresh but they WON’T change it. .Whatevers are akin to McDonalds ‘Lovin it’. McDonalds is still McDonalds and will always be so.
Too many domainers think the commercial world revolves around domains. It doesn’t there is far too many other features in business that command more attention for the bottom line (logistics, procurement, service etc etc), the inertia in large corporates is huge, they will only change when it is so clearly evident and has an impact on the bottom line that it makes sense to….and a .whatever will never have any material effect like that. Also because .com is the standard for commerce it’s like a black hole, new SME’s and start ups will gravitate towards the .com and therefore always stop any .whatever gaining any worthwhile market share.
There’s already been loads of proof of concepts.. .US .Mobi .Tel and they have only worked for registries and various small businesses but not domainers. Registries may make a killing but domainers won’t. .Com is gold, .Whatever’s are fools gold for domainers.
These new TLDs shouldn’t be pitched or even sold to the domaining community. They should only be available for real people and real businesses to do something with. Domainers ONLY exist because they’ve been ahead of the curve and seen a mispriced asset, they don’t promote growth or adoption in the marketplace, if anything they inhibit other value building customers from developing domains because of a higher entry price (Barriers).
New .whatevers won’t be mispriced because they are being sold by (poacher’s) domainers now turned registry (gamekeepers). Domainers will be doing these new TLDs a favour by not buying them because the real acid test is real people doing real things with them and building that TLD as a brand. At the moment these registries are trying to sell pigeon shit to domainers (as they could keep them all for themselves) so their financial volume models break even.
Some new TLDs may well survive and even thrive. Take .club. Actually if that is pitched at clubs (anything from night clubs to sports clubs to associations) then it may well work. But if you have a break even of more than 100k domains, that’s a shed load of clubs that will have to be targeted and marketed to… and for what… a $1 USD per domain per annum profit? Lot of hard work unless you have cross sell and upselling in mind.
LSM
I don’t think he’s trying to ‘victimize’ anyone. He’s just getting way, way ahead of an undeniably changing landscape.
There’s no doubt about that change is coming. The real question is how fast does that change come? It took a solid decade for the ‘eCommerce enthusiasm’ of the 1990s (and concomitant bubble in tech equities) to fully actualize into what everyone suspected it would eventually become. Decades seem to fly by in hindsight but slowly grind out when you’re sitting in a prison cel, or making your annual domain name renewals.
Is this another case of that? We all know what’s about to come but it is very easy to misjudge how long it might actually take for us to arrive at that point. Being a decade or two too early is considerably more costly than missing the boat all together.
LSM
^ That comment was to Ron Clayman ^
Domenclature.com
We must remember that Schilling hedged his bet on the nGTLD venture by retaining all his investments on .COM.
It appears to me that his approach to domaining is like a fisherman with nets, whereas Schwartz fishes with hooks. The latter being more precise, and orthodox business theory.
Schilling may catch crabs, or guppies. Not really targeted. Just cast the net wide and catch whatever.
It works. I’m not knocking it. Heck, some people fish with dynamite (using explosives to stun or kill schools of fish for easy collection). Although this practice can be extremely destructive to the surrounding ecosystem, as the explosion often destroys the underlying habitat (such as coral reefs) that supports the fish
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blast_fishing
BTW I’m selling 3 domains domenclature.com that I believe to be incredibly priced, and very valuable:
AffordableActBlog.com
FallObsession.com
2015Catalog.com
Domenclature.com
We must remember that Schilling hedged his bet on the nGTLD venture by retaining all his investments on .COM.
It appears to me that his approach to domaining is like a fisherman with nets, whereas Schwartz fishes with hooks. The latter being more precise, and orthodox business theory.
Schilling may catch crabs, or guppies. Not really targeted. Just cast the net wide and catch whatever.
It works. I’m not knocking it. Heck, some people fish with dynamite (using explosives to stun or kill schools of fish for easy collection). Although this practice can be extremely destructive to the surrounding ecosystem, as the explosion often destroys the underlying habitat (such as coral reefs) that supports the fish
BTW I’m selling 3 domains domenclature.com that I believe to be incredibly priced, and very valuable:
AffordableActBlog.com
FallObsession.com
2015Catalog.com
theo
Uniregistry does things differently then other applicants.
Time will tell if this gives them an egde.
Personally i like their approach.
UFO
Note also that these new TLDs have different approaches.
(Could actually draw up some sort of matrix on what their approaches are)
.xyz is being sold as a generic
.club is being sold as a generic segment
.accountant is being sold as a specialised segment
.now is being sold as a call to action
As far as I am concerned, calls to action are just marketing tag lines and therefore have no valid commerical value that users will pay for in significant volumes. (They need big one off capital sales of certain domains to make up for less domains being sold and the renewal cash flows attached (Unless they lease the likes of buy.now etc etc for much higher values).
Generics will fail because they are just another TLD like all the rest that have failed.
What is less clear is whether generic segments and specialised segments will prosper. And that I believe will revolve around how good the match is and the leverage it creates in recollection and marketing impressions with the public.
Robbie
Well Rick has played in this space before, he gave .mobi a shot, I mean it sounds like a cool extension, the hype was huge, but when the shit hit the fan, it was ugly.
I tend to side with Rick on this one, he seems to be right more times than not… I listened to the guy give the interview on extension .xyz, and how they were attaching it as a extension that really has to do with nothing, no brand, no launch etc… I felt they were reaching a bit to far, and the confidence of people signing up for launch dates, does not always correlate to the amount of people pulling out their wallets. I see .us, .biz in a siege of collapse.. these would be in the top 10 if they were part of the new gtld laumnch coming out in 2014… but these extensions have been burnt out, nobody wants to touch them, develop them, just a domain traders graveyard type deal. I don’t seeing .college being to big either, as schools will want to trade on .edu, and will have legal protection on their .com’s, so what is .college going to be, a whole bunch of university of phoenix affiliate links?
kd
I for one believe in .com. And I totally agree that Uniregistry was a hedge to a great portfolio. Either way it shakes out, Frank will win. He is hoping he wins both ways. And he very well might be a winner on both sides. However I’ve seen too many people buy amazing .info’s and .mobi’s and .biz’s that made great sense – but never panned out as investments.
If you ask me, in 10 years Frank wins no matter which way the tides flow. Because he is on both sides. Good for him.
kd
By the way Rick – great idea. I think this is brilliant and great information to be heard from both sides. Everyone wins because there is no true answer today. Just keep it cordial (both sides) and it will be the best session of TRAFFIC for many years to come.
UFO
If I was off to Traffic, I’d put myself forward to square off against the registries as it would be good fun and a bit of banter.
Should make the debate a bit ‘WWF’ / theatrical.
My end belief is that quite a number of registries will win and they will make money. It all revolves around break even volumes and any latent potential for take up without resorting to significant marketing outlays. (Especially focused segments like .club .accountants .lawyers).
But I don’t think the domains offer domainer registration profits and especially in a comparative context with a faster appreciation for a given level of risk relative to .com.
Lastly, look at .com sales prices on dnjournal for 2003 and then think in 5 years you’ll look back at all the prices now with the same OMG they were cheap. Mark my words. Hundreds of thousands of businesses pay more than $50k Pa in rent alone, 200k for a half decent .com is viable esp if it was 40k x 5 years spread payment.
steve cheatham
It will be a fantastic show to watch! A fun time will be had by all.
Brett
New gTLDs = ICANN “Party Like it’s 1999” = Loud Sucking Sound as Money Circles Drain