Morning Folks,
Frank Schilling made a BRILLIANT video that he released recently. It really is brilliant as is his comment on Berkens Blog. The video immediately below.
There is no Schwartz vs Schilling but that seems to be the perception. I love Frank. We have never had a cross word and why should we? It does not mean I can't have doubts or ask tough questions. It doesn't mean I have to agree. It doesn't mean I have to disagree. We are all examining an unknown and we all come at that unknown from a different POV. The beauty is we get to share our visions, bet on them and REALITY will win.
Frank and I have spent hours 1 on 1 at TRAFFIC discussing domains and the future as well as emails and on my board and just a decade of conversations and friendship. In Frank's position he should be doing exactly what he is doing and doing so well. If I were his advisor, I would advise him to do what he is doing. But even Frank is going to have winners and losers when each extension is measured against the next. Some may go nowhere. But it only takes 1 to be another life changer. So I still keep an open mind and new evidence and new information is the formula to change my stance. That has not happened yet and the more I study things the more certain I get. But I am sway-able on certain things. The only thing that can't sway me is that the value of GREAT .coms can only skyrocket.
That all said, I see Franks Journey and it really does remind me of the song and old Coke commercial.
"I'd like to teach the world to sing in perfect harmony."
So "I'd like to teach the world to sing in perfect harmony" is the tall order that Frank has taken on. Herculean task!
Think about the job to be done to complete that task. Some would say "Mission Impossible". Ever hear me sing?
I mean even Coca-Cola can't pull off this one. I can't sing. Frank can at least carry a tune!
I’d like to build the world a home
And furnish it with love
Grow apple trees and honey bees
And snow white turtle doves
I’d like to teach the world to sing
In perfect harmony
I’d like to hold it in my arms
And keep it company
I’d like to see the world for once
All standing hand in hand
And hear them echo through the hills
For peace throughout the land
That’s the song I hear
Let the world sing today
A song of peace that echoes on
And never goes away
I’d like to teach the world to sing
In perfect harmony
I’d like to hold it in my arms
And keep it company
I’d like to see the world for once
All standing hand in hand
And hear them echo through the hills
For peace throughout the land
That’s the song I hear
Let the world sing today
A song of peace that echoes on
And never goes away
A song of peace that echoes on
And n-e-v-e-r g-o-e-s a-w-a-y
Point is changing Human Behavior is the single greatest challenge one can take on. I see no downside in what is coming other than the confusion it will likely cause and when folks are confused, Human Nature and Human Behavior kick in. To me, that is not a downside. That is a bonus. That is exciting. None of us can lose no matter which direction things go in as long as you are keenly aware of where we are each step of the way.
I don't see an AM/FM radio parallel. FM gave you stereo and music. There was a reason to change to FM. So there was a difference. And AM never died. It sizzles with advertising dollars even today. But still no parallel. TV was going to kill radio. I guess you guys don't remember that far back. Well did it? Did cd's? What killed radio? Nothing killed radio and it flouishes even today. Just look at SIRIUS.
The parallel might be 800 numbers and 888 and 866 and 855. And if investors bought all the 866 numbers, how meaningful would it or could it be?
The dynamics that must be there are end users and great content. Without those elements, I don't see much. I speak to end-users. Some will purchase defensively and never activate the domain. Others may buy a gTLD but they all said they would merely point it to their .com. The rest say they already have their .com and don't need anything else. That is the majority.
I just don't see that harmony coming anytime soon. I don't see this being done for the right reasons. The overall benefit is limited and as an INVESTOR these are the things I have to weigh. Again, I look at it thru the eyes of an investor and an end-user.
Just look at how .com unfolded and why. Then look at the other extensions and ask why they look more like .mobi?
Frank and I just disagree on how things will unfold and the consumer and future will determine things. Not any of us. I just know the epic challenge ahead and it will take many billions of dollars to sway behavior. And that is just the first stage to get to value. Domainers selling domains to other domainers won't move the needle much if at all. End-users are the ones that create value. Domainers create Tulips.
And I will say the same thing about .whatever that I said about .com. "Your first purchases are your most important purchases". Everyone just discounts that. But it is key to having the wind at your back and a future of success. And the beauty with our industry, you can wake up on any given morning and start all over again and do it a better way.
Look, we can be seeing the greatest launch of all time or we could be seeing one of the biggest duds ever. I measure success by TV ads. Radio ads. Billboards. Magazine ads. Newspaper ads. ADS, ADS, ADS. Continuous and widespread. That will be what I am looking for. That is how I measure the viability of an extension.
All I would say is this. I would GLADLY take what I paid for whatever .mobi's I have left. I would GLADLY take what I paid for whatever .xxx's I have left. I would GLADLY take what I paid for whatever .co's I have left. And many of you would too.
I can't wait to sit down with Frank at TRAFFIC. I want to see his vision as closely as he does. Does not mean he can convince me. But I am ALWAYS open to being convinced with new information and evidence that is real. I am always sway-able. But that is different from blowing in the wind and chasing every shadow. Exciting times and the only losers are domainers that have yet to learn the difference between diamonds and old broken coke bottles.
And the one thing Franks knows about me, nothing I wrote here is anything I would not say directly to Frank. And I probably just did.
Cheers Frank!! Congrats, good luck and even if we disagree or don't see the same vision, I am rooting for your success. I really do hope you can teach the world to sing. We are always looking for that next pot of gold.
Rick Schwartz
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