Morning Folks!!
Look from 2008-2013 and you will find that this has been the first set of posts I have talked about a recovery and the recession being over. Today I will explain exactly what I see and tell you why NOW is the time.
If you paid attention in 2008 the way the top economists explained the DIRE time we went thru as a ball bearing on a shiny, flat 18" plate that a restaurant server may carry over his head as he walks through the dining room and the ball bearing was out of control, rolling all over the place and the fear was the ball bearing would fall off the plate and the economy would crash and be out of control. Well the economy crashed but they held control because the ball bearing never fell off the plate. Barely! They admit it was out of control.
So why is the recession over now or about to be as I will explain? Well now they DO have control again. Now they can MANIPULATE things. Now they will use their power to make sure YOU and ME pay for the calamity that was mostly man-made by the political class.
But here is the real reason. Lets look at a Lawn and a Drought.
So a drought comes and your lawn is brown. That is a recession. Just using water as an example instead of money. So the lawn turns brown in 2008. In 2009 not only is it brown, it is brittle. By 2010 there are patches of lawn missing and the drought continues. Then a bit of rain happens in 2010 and some green appears. But then it does not rain again and back to even more lawn disappearing. In 2011 it begins to rain again. So green shoots appear. Then again another 9 months with no rain and the lawn is brown and dirt spots. Then 2012 happens and the drought is still present but there is some rain here and there and there is some green here and there.
2013 comes and the drought is still present but there are some spring rains and there are some folks starting to get more aggressive. But there is still a hot summer to get thru in 2013 and the drought is still a very big problem. But after the summer, NORMAL seasonal rains are going to appear and the difference is that this time the rain will be enough to carry things through the winter of 2014. But the lawn is improving. It looked a lot worse in 2010. There was some false hopes in 2011 and 2012. We are in the process of bottoming out right now. Bottoming out does not mean it is over. It means that you can see the end and plan for it and take advantage of it. I believe we are at the point where the economy can sustain itself as we move into the next business cycle that starts in mid August and int September and then beyond.
How?
By understanding what the politicians will do to. What people will do. What business will do. What stagnation looks like. What stagnation is Stagnation is already in the rear view mirror even tho some are getting a glimpse of it right now because just like a big bad storm, the worst sometimes comes at the tail end.
Now, it is dangerous to talk about politics but politics is at the bottom of this heap of shit called a recession and politics only makes things worse. People make things better. Time makes things better. Change of attitude makes things better. When folks get sick and tired. There are other factors at work. Anger and frustration are playing into the equation.
So when you step back, look at HISTORY and what politicians do and the manipulation that happens, it becomes fairly easy to predict things. Elections then come in play and things magically happen.
Look, I can go much deeper into the weeds but unless you are paying very close attention to some of the hardest to find info, it won't make sense. But when I say the recession is over it is not over in the sense of there is a big honeymoon and roaring comeback. It is the fact that we have bottomed out or in the midst of a summer bottoming out. The fact that after a very slow and hot summer, business will finally heat up in a HEALTHY way. The last weak companies will collapse and disappear and the lawn will be cleared of those dead weeds and make way for a green lawn period. Droughts and floods. That is the way of the world. That is history.
Look, there are MAJOR fundamental problems. We can't control things we can't control. It's ugly. But that aside because inflation will solve some of that.
And then look closer to home in our little pond. By the fall there will be many gTLD's rolling out. Some will do business. Some will collapse. This is a grand experiment of a grand experiment that has yet to prove itself. But it brings in eyeballs, coverage and dollars. Where is the downside? Oh I forgot, because of being a victim to human nature so may of you worry and fear stuff you should not worry about or fear.
If you look to history you will find out where to be BEFORE you need to be there. Getting there AFTER is just following the herd.
When things change they change faster than you can react. For example the DAY the market turns, real estate adjusts 10%-20% immediately. A bear turns into a bull and so does the price of doing business. And it is no secret that the most desirable and the most undesirable properties sell FIRST!
In early 2009 I wrote about the Economic fog we were in. There was zero visibility. Today there is clarity. Some of it is not pretty. But it is pretty clear that true stagnation is long gone and recovery is finally under way regardless of the significant headwinds and summer to come. Speaking of summer, folks are going on vacations they may have passed up during the past few summers because they are sick and tired of being sick and tired.
Have a GREAT Day!
Rick Schwartz
Recent Comments