Morning Folks!!
I have come to the conclusion that as domainers many of us are blessed and cursed with A.D.D. (Attention Deficit Disorder) or maybe some of us are the opposite and focus too much. Possibly we suffer from both.
The more you think like the masses the better you will do. You must recognize that the 'masses' hold the keys. If they don't go along with the program, you have a flop. No matter how much is invested or touted. The Edsel and the Volt come to mind.
The consumer is finicky and only likes a change with a benefit. Change for change sakes seldom gets rewarded. 'New Coke' and 'Classic Coke'. A failure and a victory. The public rejected the new coke, but in the loss, coca cola company now controlled much more shelf space at the grocery store.
Stage one of the net had to be gathering the domain names. The 'nuts' if you will. Why? Because as I have stated many times, this was a unique moment in time that would never ever happen again. Opportunity your father, your grandfather and his father before that never had. That's a FACT NOW and only a crazy pipe dream back then.
My prediction is that window will be CLOSED at the end of this 20 years cycle. A generation it was open and anyone could participate and at the end of 20 years and possibly a few days before, that window will close. Stage one of the Internet will be over. But for me, that is just when it all really begins. The first 20 years devoted to nothing more than gathering nuts and learning. Realizing that sophistication also takes 20 years. We are growing the most enormous tree the world has ever seen. 20 years is nothing.
My first 20 years were always devoted to seeing a dream through for the next 20 years. More meaningful in terms of the Internet and as I get older and can work less, my little nuts will be doing all the work. It's an engine. 20 years to assemble all the parts and 20 years to implement.
So while there are still REVERSE DOMAIN NAME HIJACKERS out there impatiently waiting and losing millions, they can't hijack my vision or how I CHOOSE to implement it and WHEN I choose to implement. And should they try, they will have hell to pay. Ask the poster boy.
Patience is the key and while I can point to tens of thousands of failures they can only point to my slow and deliberate manner as their reason
But here we are. If you want to go into business today you are likely to start on the Internet. There was never going to be a second chance to get great domain names. Once they were spoken for, game over. So our mission was to gather those nuts. Fill the wheel barrels with gold and not even look at the booty for 20 years. Because in 20 years some of that booty would become priceless and others would be worthless.
When you don't know how something is going to unfold you shoot in all directions in the sky and hope some birds fall down. You don't aim, you shoot. You shoot as many as you can as fats as you can and worry about everything else later. You can point the rifle later or at any time in between.
Well, it's getting to be 'Later' and those that have held on and have dozens or even hundreds or maybe thousands of core domains that each on their own could keep you busy for a lifetime are soon to be well rewarded.
I look at the 20 year trip as a wagon train or stage coach going from the east coast of the USA to the west coast of the USA like they did 150-200 years ago. Many were lost along the way and many just gave up. Yet others sprinted off in other directions on their own. It's a tough trailblazing trip. Mountains and valley's and snow and rain and storms and cold nights and summer heat.
So where are we on this trip to the west coast? Well we are nearly there but we will lose more folks now then ever before. We have crossed the mountains of the east, the rockies and now we are in DEATH VALLEY!! A true test of what we are all made of. Some don't believe there is a great ocean just another 100-200 miles away or less. They have traveled 2500-2700 miles and it is at THIS POINT when so many will give up. Will second guess themselves. Will sell out of fear for no reason.There IS an ocean after this hot sand. There is a point where everything will reveal itself and it is at that moment that the your universe changes and the rewards come.
But still remember one thing. Mainstream today is yet to catch up to the adult market of 1997-1998. But they will. The numbers paint a picture for all to see. Stronger than anything I can say those numbers demonstrate what is valuable and what is not.
So that is why I see what I see and how long the journey takes. Frustration starts when you anticipate something happening much sooner and become impatient. Don't second guess the value of a great domain name. Understand that fruit has to be ripe before you pick it or you will likely just spit it out when you get it too soon.
This point is the last opportunity point before the opportunity evaporates completely. The unique moment in time will be gone. The ship will have sailed. So I would imagine this is like 2003-2004 all over again but in a different form and if you knew then what you know now, would you make some corrections to your course? The ONLY way to see th future is to study the past and understand it.
Have a GREAT Day!
Rick Schwartz
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Furkat
In my opinion, there are still plenty of opportunities in domain name industry. 1000s new extensions are coming to the market very soon. More people in Asia and Africa will join the internet space. .Com will become a small fraction of the domain name sector. I know you always advocate and promote .com domain names for a good reason but we need to think out of the box that is why we are in this industry. Some companies like FB and Twitter are already pioneering the sector by introducing new ways, for instance, facebook.com/domain or twitter.com/domain etc. I think, the domain name sector is still at its very earlier stage. You just need to compare this sector to telephone sector (which is still developing) then it will become clear that it is never too late to start your domain name business.
Gene
Excellent post.
“But here we are. If you want to go into business today you are likely to start on the Internet. There was never going to be a second chance to get great domain names.”
…and all the endless articles about apps making domain names obsolete were not only premature, they’re flat-out wrong. Check out this study:”Twice as Many Mobile News Readers Prefer Browsers to Apps” (http://goo.gl/zOIXM )
SF
Suffering from both too much focus and not enough focus.
Funny …because it’s so true!
The wagon train analogy is perfect.
Like the song says,”The waiting is the hardest part”.
Really like this post.
Slender Sea Robin
Furkat said:” .Com will become a small fraction of the domain name sector.”
So, .com will be miniscule compared to other extensions? LOL. :) Well then, we should talk. I have a bunch of toll-free 855 numbers I’d like to sell you. They have a ton of”potential” just like these new TLDs. Don’t worry, you can surely make these 855 as popular as 800 numbers, just like you can on the new TLDs. T-r-u-s-t M-e!!!!!!!! :)
RaTHeaD
eating your nuts… hmmmmmmmmm… a fella could take that two ways.
Acro
Lucky for me, military service killed my former healthy sleeping pattern right before the Internet did.
Opportunities exist all around us, one just has to use a lot more time, a lot more efficiently.
The 20 year cycle paradigm is a great example of how investing works:”flipping” is for hobbyists.
AHEAD OF TIME
Think outside the box? Facebook.com/usingdotcom Twitter.com/usingdotcom
I’m very happy people using URL’s like this because it’s advertising dot com
You can buy new domains very cheap that’s the problems domainers have trying
to sell premium domains because most people don’t understand why they
have so much value. Everyday I see people addicted using the Internet and new
online businesses. These gTLD’s is the best news in the world for dot com owners
because its going to get people talking more about domains. Everyone wants the best
that’s why all the best domain registrars have dot com listed at the top.
AustraliaHouses
Good link Gene. Thanks.
Brandon
Rick, I love reaing your posts. I am a younger guy and have just started getting into domaining. I love your opinions and insight. I still think there is opportunity but the door is definitely closing. The opportunity i think lies in the consumer not knowing the value still. Anyways, thanks for your insights, posts and great content.
Anunt
Dot com is still king…but the values are going down as each day passes.
With 1000’s new gTLDs coming…huge supply will drive down prices…yes, even your precious dot com value will go down.
But dot com still is king!
rob sequin
“Frustration starts when you anticipate something happening much sooner and become impatient.”
Like owning 2500 Cuba domains and waiting for the death of Fidel Castro or the Embargo? :-)
Chadi Ghaith
I like the overall spirit of this post. This post is not about details, figures, numbers, statistics… It actually captures the magic of the industry and reminds me y i was attracted to it to begin with.
I believe the metrics of success are the same in everything in life, but they are more clear and defined in the real world than they are in the virtual world. The nature of the virtual world is a little more confusing and less encouraging of merits like patience.
Its like when u check ur FB account several times per day for notifications or mail; it becomes habitual to expect more and more in less and less time and this is contra patience.
What i identify with is ur willingness Rick to sleep over an investment almost like it never happened until the right buyer comes and do the wakening part. Rest will eventually reveal itself in the form of negotiation power…