Morning Folks!!
I said in my July 4th post that I could clearly see where we are going now. If you compare that to my posts of 2008 and 2009 then you will see we have come a very long way. Clarity! While the fog is very real for many, I only see clarity coming.
But clarity does not mean life and business without turmoil and challenge. Clarity simply means you understand the turmoil and how it will come out, when it will lift and what the fallout might be. While others focus on one point in time or even yesterday, focusing on a period of time after that is much more meaningful and useful. So that is why I would call this summer the eye of the storm. Things are quiet on one side, but percolating on the other side with the ammunition and mood to explode at any moment. A very quite and tense situation worldwide.
This recession or downturn is different than any other in history because while folks may not have a steady job and thus no steady income, they do have income. That is much different than the recession of the 1970's or the depression when folks did not have any income whatsoever.
Poverty today does not look like poverty in the 1950's and 1960's. Without seeing that and understanding that, then you are dependent on the media and they have their own agendas. They have 'Dumbed down the news' on broadcast TV. They don't paint an accurate picture of where we are. Lindsay Lohan leads the news.
In the 1970's my dad was in his 60's and unemployed. I was in high school. One of my brothers just got out of college and looking for a job. The 4 of us lived in a 21ft trailer in Van Nuys, California. I took my showers in the mobile home park bathroom. I had no car. I had what I was wearing and my heart ached for my friends in New Hampshire.
I got a job a Taco Bell and learned how to make Taco Shells. And then refried beans. And then work at the counter. And that was after being rejected by Jack in the Box, McDonald's, Norms. I guess I was either too stupid to know how bad it was or I was too scared of life not getting better that motivated me. I also knew I wasn't going to get many dates without a little coin.
A computer, cell phone and a strong desire to succeed along with a work ethic that understands 18 hour days and 2 or 3 jobs is the way to vault over the masses that REFUSE to do that TODAY. Work creates self esteem and self esteem makes you want to do better and better and better. Mediorce or excellent?! Or CREATE your own path with those 2 tools that no other generation was fortunate enough to have or even dream of. Star Trek shit and folks still wallow in self pity!
That does not mean it is not tough out there. So what?? A REAL job is almost never advertised. You got to go in and get it! Create it!
There is no neon sign for opportunity. You have to learn to recognize opportunity when it crosses your path. It is invisible!! Train yourself to see the invisible. To pick out opportunity when it is there. That is what every successful person does. Period! And many create their own opportunity. But if you are not doing well and playing video games, time to toss the games!
Folks make a living of excusing failure. We spend more per capita in the USA per student than any country in the world and we are not even in the top 20 worldwide. That's a crime! That means something is broken. I don't want small classes of 30. I want large classes of 30 million. I would rather see the Steve Jobs of the world teaching those 30 million something of great value compared to somebody less qualified teaching 30 and hiring 1 million of them. One costs 1 MILLION times as much and gets a fraction of the result. DUH!!
Sorry, but I see a recession of minds and attitudes and dependence and integrity. I don't see a recession of opportunity.
Capitalism is on trial. Or so some think. But Capitalism will sustain an overwhelming win over dependence. Overwhelming! And when that event happens or perceived to have happened, then an avalanche of business will be unleashed. Scared money will make a 180 degree turn around.
I could point to many things to support my argument but I don't want to go all political. All I will venture to say is that I believe Romney will win by an 'electoral' landslide, the Senate will flip and the House will not look much different then it does now. A new course will be set and it won't look like the last administration or this one. If you don't agree with me, fine, but I guess we can look back at this prediction come November.
But between now and then, some of the most volatile months you have ever seen may be in store for us and will likely carry on into next year before it finally calms down and we begin to get on track. Nothing happens overnight but there will be a point that things will turn. If you wait for that point, you are already way behind. Anticipating when we hit that point is the way to score and score big. Get it wrong, it could be costly. Hope we get through London without major incident.
In times like this I look for a parallel in history and I have found one. Actually several. And in the few years I have been following these parallels, they have only gotten more intense. I guess that is only if we survive 2012.
The best news that I hope and expect will emerge is that sales and profits will once again be in vogue. Sales will be the driving force. Finally!! Profits will be paramount. Finally!! And that is why important and meaningful domain names will emerge as perhaps the #1 investment asset in the world. It's rightful and long awaited place! The foundation and brand of every future business.
Have a GREAT Day!
Rick Schwartz
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Martin
Love your optimism Rick. Dont think it makes a difference [Romney/Obama]. I used to think there was a difference but than they passed TARP [even though 99-1 said NO!!!]. Than John Roberts passed ObamaCare [despite the fact that all tax bills need to originate in the House and Obamacare originated in the senate, the judiciary effectively had to re-write the law, oh…and its on its face unconstitutional].
I see…
Govt. will contract big time and we will have many many more laid off workers [good thing imvho because we cant afford them]. There will be more money printing. Eventually, TPTB will lead us to war to deflect from the economic chaos.
I think domains WILL do splendidly though. Hard Assets in general will be fine as they will preserve wealth. Larger economy,however,……will suck for a very very long time as America doesnt make anything anymore.
Ultimately, individuals solution is to be entrepreunerial. Agreed.
rob sequin
Great post… of course :-)
I agree that Romney will win and I will be voting for him.
I think he can do great things to promote small business and, indirectly, domain names that new businesses will need.
Also, Obama will run a VERY negative campaign that is 180 degrees away from his Hope and Change message and MANY people will not like that at all.
I am worried that there could be a big sell off in the market in October.
I’m no stock market analyst but October’s are usually weak and if Obama is up in the polls, investors may sell either because they are worried he will be re-elected and/or to drive the market down to help Romney.
Should be an interesting few months.
Scott Alliy
Great point about people being out of work but not out of money. Thus the climb back up the mountain for many will start partial way up vs from the bottom which should make the climb shorter and easier and thus speed up and shorten the recovery timeframe.
Two things will need to happen if small or mid size business are to rise from the Internet fog i.e .current lack of development. Both will directly affect end user domain sales and thus domain name investors wallets.
1) either current web development companies need to get more aggressive in marketing the features benefits of owning a develop Internet business or more DIY education and services need to appear or get introduced to market or as mentioned become more aggressive in their promotions activities.
2) Internet Security issues starting from spam email to hacking need to be aggressively implemented to curb the prevalence of both maladies and to provide potential Internet business owners confidence to invest their time effort energy resources and finances into building an online business.
gary dell
“There is no neon sign for opportunity” Great quote!
BullS
My first job was a janitor /dishwasher.
I specialized in food dumpster diving…..
Now, I have everything I want and a janitor in my own mortgage-free home looking at the beach.
The road is pave with gold I see everyday.
The only thing I am not”qualified” to run is the President of the United Stated- so WHAT YOUR EXCUSE?
BullS
What amaze me in this country is..the toilet is always cleaner than most places and there is toilet paper and best of all, you can drink FREE water from the tap.
What F more do you want? there is always good food in the dumpsters.
If you can read/write basic English , gets your hands dirty-there will always be jobs for you or YOU CREATE YOUR OWN FREAKING JOBS!!
ri.sk
I agree that clarity is coming to the domain
market, and valuable web domains are starting
to be recognized for what they are.. again!
Show us the money..
With all this monetary policy its highly likely there will be an even bigger boom and eventual bust in store. When times are good they never think about reeling in cash simply because its politically advantageous to be in a boom, so once its out it stays out.
Houses cheap, credit cheap, demand for housing, lots of liquidity coming on tap… yep, its going to kick off.
Jeff Schneider
Hello Rick, (I am on vacation sending this through different server)
We see a resurging and rebounding Middle Class, that are this nations backbone. Everybody thinks Energy based companies such as Natural Gas will lead the way.
We see Small Businesses migrating into cyberspace as the engine of growth. We also see the collapse of oil prices along with breakthroughs in Super Conductuvity, on a massive commercial scale in the next ten years.
Manufacturing is and will continue to progress in our country. This will be regardless of our next president,in our observance. The advent of the home computer has advanced peoples I.Q.s at a never before experienced pace.
The stock markets will remain strong from here to elections, and foriegn money will pour into our equity markets with the dollar being a safe haven.
Creative destruction will be prevalent and somewhat scary to some but overall things are as bullish as we have seen in a lifetime.”Virtual Business Founjdations” will replace domain names in peoples minds and they will be realized as being the most powerful Marketing Tool in recorded history. 7/18/12
Gratefully, Jeff Schneider (Contact Group) (Metal Tiger)
Josh
Romney winning by a landslide?
I see Obama winning by 20-30 votes in the electoral college. Problem is, 48% of people pay no income tax. There’s 48% of the vote immediately for the other side. We’ve taken a turn for dependence and socialism and I expect that to continue.
Hope you’re right though!
no one
Rick thanks in post.
I am at the crossroads right now and this post came at the perfect time. Reinforces things and what my passion is.
Kinda discouraged on the journey past few days. Move forward, back 3 steps.
Nothing comes free on a gold platter. Eventually I will get to the top of the mountain. Was hopping it would be by October and I attend my first domain conference. Full time and chasing my dream and ambitions. Now it looks like I wont be able to make it. That part frustrates me.
@Domains
Some forecasters are saying 2013 will be ugly, bankrupt governments, Euro troubles, China slowing, leading to another downswing worse than 2008/09.
I hope they are wrong, but not a lot of good signs out there.
Poor Uncle
Hi Risk,
My comments:
“Capitalism” – Should be called Economic Freedom. Capitalism is intended to be a negative term. If you are pro private sector economic growth, use the term — Economic Freedom.
“Poverty today does not look like poverty in the 1950’s and 1960’s”
– Poor people today have a TV, air conditioning, food, and shelter…I forget cable tv, internet access, and a cell phone.
“18 hour days and 2 or 3 jobs is the way to vault over the masses”
– It is also a great way to get yourself killed
“A REAL job is almost never advertised”
– This is very true. Companies are having a hard time filling highly specialize technical positions. But they are not advertise…because companies do not have the time to sip thru 100’s of unqualified resumes. Connection is key not because of old boy’s network…it’s simply based on trust and known quality.
“The best news that I hope and expect will emerge is”
– The next President of the U.S.A. will have an”R” next to his name.
“meaningful domain names will emerge as perhaps the #1 investment asset in the world” – eBusiness.XXX
Grim
Rick Schwartz wrote:
“Poverty today does not look like poverty in the 1950’s and 1960’s.”
That’s true, but then again, people didn’t have debt back then like they do now. Nowadays, debt is the only way they can ‘afford’ the things they have, like iPhones, computers, flat screen TVs, cars, video games, etc.
Debt makes people appear less poor, but actually, they’re even poorer than they would be without it, since with interest, everything they buy ends up costing a lot more than it originally would have if they were able to pay with cash. (And obviously, the poor aren’t the only ones who are heavily in debt, because of this inability.)
All in all though, I agree with what you wrote, and am optimistic about the future. Lots of opportunity, all the time. You just have to be willing to put in the hours and work for it.
ri.sk
@poor uncle
I like your comment about domains emerging as
the #1 investment asset, and think there could
be some truth in that.
After all, domains, like any form of IP, can
be seriously undervalued, but domain names are
the only form of IP that are a destination and
identity – all rolled in to one.
A”patent” or”copyright”, for example, is an
important cog in the machinery of business, but
a domain is (potentially) the whole machine…
I read, many years ago now, about a guy in the
UK who bought a vanity phone no. for a very
small sum. It had the no/s 007 in it, repeatedly,
and he sold the no. for, I think it was, £50,000
to an investigation co. who liked the assoc. with
James Bond.
The point is ‘though that a phone no. is not an
identity or destination, in the same way that a
domain is.