Morning Folks!!
In the days ahead the new .whatevers will be revealed. Many of you will have domains that are instantly worth millions more than they are today. Millions. Now that does not mean they will recognize that fact. But water runs downhill no matter what some might believe or want to believe.
So a Huge Pizza Place opens on 59 Atlantic STREET. But you own a tiny hole in the wall pizza place at 59 Atlantic AVENUE. He advertises, you grow. He advertises more, you grow more. He gets pissed, you laugh your ass off. He gets more pissed, you laugh harder and harder and make more and more. You laugh because you know you never did anything wrong and while the other guy is pissed and it is directed at you, he should be pissed at his own actions. Not you, who did nothing and was just the beneficiary of life. You got lucky! You were then smart enough to capitalize on it. That's what you do in a capitalistic system.
You expand your business because you are doing so well and the other guy is barely surviving. The last thing you want to do is see that guy go out of business. On the other hand, if he does go out of business, he has built an incredible business for you. Maybe you will even take over his location because he never understood that he may have been able to buy your little hole in the wall before he built his place and avoided all this. Maybe it never crossed his mind. Maybe he did not know. Maybe this or maybe that. But if he could rewind, maybe that would have been the best decision. Maybe that would have made a difference and a different outcome. Maybe?? BULLSHIT! As I have stated over and over and over again, success or failure comes at the very start of any journey. Here is a perfect illustration of a guy sailing from New York to London and ending up in Africa then blaming some third party not even on the ship or connected in any way, shape or form.
Gotta love what is to come. Many are going to get angry when they discover how it really works. Whether online or in the real world. If you want to have a really good chance of success in the real world, build a hamburger stand next to the steak house. You'll do just fine.
But this is nothing new as I showed above and how about 800 numbers and 855 numbers. 800 is the .com equivalent. This is not the most vivid comparison. But if one guy is 800-OIL-CANS and the other guy is 855-OIL-CANS, the 855 guy is going to lose a percentage of traffic not only to the 800 number but in this case, his competitor.
.whatever without the dotcom will make some folks instantly rich. It truly is a lottery. Not one any of us knew would be this big or uncontrolled. But the sanctioned 'Clusterf*ck' is coming. .Property increases the value of Property.com. Period! How much? Well that depends on may factors. First whether the .Property will even become a viable extension. Of the 2000 +/- extensions coming online, I don't see more than a handful enjoying much success and I predict rapid and massive consolidation as some of these folks collapse under their own overheads.
Now let me be clear, there is always money to be made with things that don’t work. There will be a market and an aftermarket. The argument is the size and importance of that market. The viability and the longevity. The profitability and all the rest.
You can be certain that the majority of extensions will fail. That does not mean those that survive will be meaningful. I would be thrilled beyond belief to even see a potential candidate to rival .com. Possibly .web or some other generic extension that makes sense and has something to offer. But that is a tall task and you would have to have one hell of a marketing plan to pull it off. That said, you can never predict what the consumer will REJECT! I mean without some compelling original content, most folks will quickly realize that the .whatever is just another backdoor to .com and it will be over before it starts.
I know several folks we all know are going after hundreds of extensions. I don't wish any of them ill and I hope they prove me wrong. If I can identify any that I think could work or have a reason to work or a plan to work I will speak out in support. But when I have facts that say 61% leakage, I will point to that as well. To me it is a poison pill to those that don't know better. But hey, that's business. People have the freedom to make mistakes.
I always look to the history of radio, TV, AM, FM, Stereo, Telephone, Cell Phone etc. There will always be parallels.
Here is a post I made on Thanksgiving Day of 2000. An ancient post in domain years. This would be BD. Before Domaining. See if that compass lines up today. See if I could have written that post this morning. But it was clear to my eyes 12 years ago and before then. I always knew there would be great expansion. But what does it mean? That is the question and my answer then is the same as it is today.
“For those that think there are no more GOOD .coms......then the chances are you couldn't get laid in a whorehouse. :-) Just means you are not creative enough or have given up too early. :-(
For ANY other .whatever, the ONLY thing that will make it prominent is heavy advertising by MANY different companies. So far TRILLIONS have been spent on .com. Let us project .com spending for 2001. TRILLIONS!!! .net......maybe a few million, .org..............maybe $50 million On the others, your guess is as good as mine but I don't see MILLIONS. Even down the road.....they will ALWAYS want their .com version of whatever they end up with.
The more extensions that come out, the more valuable .com will be.
Look at it this way. porno.com does well. Let's say porno.tv comes along. If he spends millions on advertising........don't I benefit as the .com owner? And if he becomes big enough he may WANT if not NEED the .com version. However the reverse is not true because the value of the .tv has a much lower value than the .com. And for VERY good reason imho.
Oh well.....enough spewing for today. lol
Have a happy and safe holiday for us Pilgrims!!
Rick Schwartz
Thu Nov 23 09:53:48 2000 - 172.168.217.164 - message #7503
Folks, I see this as a straight line with detours that some take. Detours with cliffs. Detours without the .com foundation and highway to insure and protect them. The first decision is always the biggest and not having the .com of anything is a costly mistake that is a lifetime bill. So I will look at .whatever success as those limited to owners of the .com. That would make it useful for brands. I am sure .Apple will be picked up by Apple. When and if they use it or not is another story. But that has nothing to do with domainers. Apple won't be selling domains and domainers won't be investing in them. None of the brands will. So take that group right off the table.
The geo .whatevers may have the best chance. But even they might be limited to the worlds top destinations and none will be immune from traffic leakage. NONE! The only question becomes does it leak back into your business by owning the .com and being able to reclaim that traffic or does it leak to your #1 competitor as I have described above? Those that won't even address that, won't even talk about that, won't even consider that are doomed because almost all success or failure happens RIGHT NOW! The first steps. When everyone is in a rush to make decisions without considering all ramifications and that is where they crash. Then 'I' can come along and point out how one bad call brought the whole project down before it was even launched and much time, dollars and months or years of energy and life were wasted.
Have a GREAT Day!
Rick Schwartz
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