Morning Folks!!
What happened in 2010 will take 18-36 months to completely manifest itself. It's a 'Germination period' and you have to understand and respect that time gap or your crop will never grow and mature. Fruit takes TIME to ripen and sweeten. In business, that cycle is usually 18-36 months. How do you stay ahead of the future? By predicting an event and then the fallout of and from that event and beyond. Just act on a hunch, get it right and be there first.
In January I EXPECT Ron Jackson to report that 2010 was the #1 year for domain sales. That is my assumption and right or wrong, that is what I will base things on. Originally I thought it would happen in 2009, but there was just not enough time for the recession and business realignment to manifest itself. In 2010 there was. So I believe the right prediction, just a bit early, which is infinitely better than being late.
2010 will be a record breaker. A record breaker in a string of record breakers to come. And please keep in mind these are only the “Reported” domain sales. The unreported sales likely eclipse this number. Yes, eclipse. The biggest deals are often silent deals. There is probably not a real domainer out there that does not have at least 1 or more private sales. Many of them have had ALL their deals private. Post and let me know. You won't be violating any agreements with such a general response.
So in the not too distant future we will see $150 million years in REPORTED domain sales. Then $250 million. And in a much shorter time from 1996 to today, we will see a Billion in domain sales in one calendar year. All will happen. All are easily predictable. The only moving parts are which exact domains and what year will each of these events happen.
There are those that would argue with me. I would take their side. I just don’t like being wrong and late to the game. The future will bear that out.
Arguably more progress has been made online in the last 24 months than the last 24 years. Things have a way of accelerating and while we are FAR from full speed, we are FOR THE FIRST TIME, heading in the right direction. It takes a long time to get to where we are. It won’t take so long to get where we are going. Grasp where we are going and you will be rewarded. Go against it and it may cut you to shreds. Don’t get T-Boned by the future. Hit it head on and devour it!
As for Social Media, that requires a separate post. This was a real break out year for this and it changed human behavior more in one year that any other thing possibly in the history of mankind. The Facebook and Twitter logos are on everything. From zero to infinity in 12 months. Like I said, it deserves a separate post. I look at it as an added booster rocket to domain names. Many think the opposite and of course, I believe they are wrong once again. Just like they have been wrong about every other event that was going to destroy domain names. In fact, it does just the opposite. It is the very best thing that could happen to domain names. Facebook and Twitter are the 'Training wheels of the Internet' The starting point, not the ending point.
Have a GREAT Day!
Rick Schwartz
Dave Pelligrinelli
I’ll bet you are right, $1B sales year within this decade. Some of the increase will come from inflation, but even if it is, that just means that owning domains is a good hedge.
Leonard Britt
Yes, many domain sales occur which never make DNJournal because DNJ only reports sales above a certain threshhold, there are private sales or because Godaddy Premium Listing sales do not get reported to DNJ. While I still need to do a better job at marketing, 2010 sales were up strongly across all price categories from a disappointing 2009. Close to 75% of my domain sales are in the $200-$1000 range.
iain
rick have you taken any interest in the 3d domain buying thats been happening this year seems to be a new fresh angle for domains myself i have bought a few and been lucky enough to sell on a few already one i even sold on after only ten days after purchase.A lot of sales have been reported so far this year even before 3d is mainstream.
some major players in the domaining market are also buying into it.
just wondered your thoughts
Steve M
Rick: How. Right. You. Are.
Chadi
True, there has been more action in 2010 than in the last couple of years combined. However, if new TLDs keep popping from here and there (apart from .co of course which is a special case), it’ll always feel to some like they’re running in a dream. Personal view point.
I know a gem is always a gem, no matter how much tar accumulates on its surface. However still, the inflationary possibilities are as numerous as there are words and terms inside an international encyclopedia, and some times the whole thing feel like currency printing in a way.
So, I believe the years ahead are for the stronger and more enduring type – thick skinned. Its less about racing for domains (less about Danika) and more about building endurance muscle (more about Jillian).
My personal opinion.
Wyn
more people will realize how potential for the Internet online marketing especially domain for special purpose such as
NAME REMOVED
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& as research shows that people spending equal time on TV & the Internet!
Joey Starkey
What ever number gets reported will be low. I deal in domains that never get reported. Sales prices from $150 to $2000 sold directly to end users.
Not all wine and cruises but beats selling used cars.
Of course I am just a very Small Bit Player in this world of Big Time Players.
Thanks for sharing and I will keep plugging away to get a few of those $xxx,xxx names.
chris
I feel .com is king and will always be king – however there will be other contendors such as .co. Getting a great 1 worded .co might not generate as much as a .com but it sure will generate a decent amount of cash – this should help drive sales towards the $1B mark eventually. I think that as time goes on more people will realize the internet is a necessity and not a luxury especially if they are trying to promote something.
Andrew Rosener
I am just one domainer and relatively new to the game at that…
But in the last 5-6 months alone we have sold and brokered over $7.5 Million alone in domain sales! Unfortunatley, upwards of 80% of those sales are private and will never be released to the public.
When I take into consideration the number of other serious domainers who are far bigger than myself, I imagine that their numbers follow mine and that many of their largest sales are also never reported.
I believe that in reality, only about 10 – 20% of REAL domain sales are ever reported. Particularly as private equity is getting in the game and nearly every transaction with one of these firms is under NDA.
I see a real boom coming with PREMIUM domain names in 2011. It was really the last 6 months where the momentum came and I think it will keep on coming!