Morning folks!!
First, just for the record, I have always made more money
and had better opportunity during
times like this than during good times. So the point of this post is to understand
what is coming so you can be ahead of the curve and not denying that a curve is
coming and then will likely crash when you don’t adjust to new conditions. Just
like in 1929, the year we remember will likely be 2009. That is what history
has taught us. But 1929 was the “Shock” just like 2008-2009. The true is that pain
takes a while to filter down and that is why the worst is what comes after the
initial crash. Life does not stop during a collapse. This post may help you
navigate this financial and economic storm.
Secondly, don’t believe the common wisdom. For example the
“Dollar”. We have been led to believe how weak the dollar is. How unstable it
is. How nobody wants dollars. The reality is that has never been further from
the truth. Just look at the banks. They are HOARDING dollars not giving them
away. People are hoarding dollars. So for 2 years we have been fooled. That will
change and EVENTUALLY people will want to get rid of their dollars, but not
yet. Prices went down because folks wanted those dollars. Needed those
dollars. Needed to pay bills. But
after you have a glut, then you have shortages and THEN you have inflation.
Inflation is what they hope will happen to save the day. THEN your dollars will
become worth LESS, not worthless.
There will be a POINT where you have old money, old dollars that took
years to earn combined with new dollars that may take minutes to earn. Point is
there is a TIME to turn those old dollars into assets before they become new
dollars worth a fraction of what they were. It is already happening. I see
products I use all the time that have now DOUBLED in price. Nobody is reporting
on this. They likely won’t until way after the fact. You need to be ahead in
this one no matter what currency you use. The Euro or the Dollar or whatever.
In a global economy things react different than 1929. And even if there is no
inflation, then prepare to be deflated as they take more and more of each $100
you make. When the $60, becomes $50, then $40, then $30. So either way, you
MUST prepare because we are likely getting one or the other or BOTH!
Now I know folks in the industry want me to be positive and
upbeat. I am. Very positive that we are years away from the end of this. I can
BS you into believing things will be great, but they will not. Last year I said
that Ron Jackson will report record domain sales. I was wrong. But not totally.
The only thing I was wrong on was I called it too soon. It will be this year.
Desperation is setting in. You can see it. When folks sell
domains for survival, that is not good. Sell domains to pay the registration
fees of the one they want to keep. That is not good. I can make a list of
dozens of reasons, but the biggest may just be the increase in capital gains
tax coming in 2011. A million dollar domain sale will cost you $50,000 more in
taxes than this year. Plus, as
some of these larger sales come to light, 2009 still is in contention. Marchex
sold $1.3 million worth of “non-strategic” (I love that spin and plan to use
it) domain names in the first 3
months of 2010. Most folks I know are weeding their collections and seeing
which domains don’t fit and can be sold to buy new more pertinent domains if
they are in good shape or out of sheer weakness because they need cash for
renewal fees if they are in a weak
state. That makes for an interesting market. There are some real gems out there
and it may be time to pay attention to that and less attention to pigeon
droppings at the drop houses.
What will hurt the domain business is far from our control.
Countries are defaulting. Unthinkable just months ago. But Iceland, Greece,
Spain, Portugal are all on the verge. Great Britain is a mess. China is about
to see an economic collapse as well. There is no running or hiding from what is
coming. The only thing you can do is prepare. How do you prepare? It will be
different for everyone. But paying
off your debt, including your mortgage should be #1 on your agenda. Having
months of money not in a bank may be the second thing. I know, most of you
believe we are already past the worst point. Well, I just don’t agree. Too many
factors at play. So much is uncontrollable and when uncontrollable happens, you
better be prepared. Sure, they
will bail out these countries. Sure the market will spike. Sure you can make a
lot of money. Sure this only
delays the inevitable.
As for what happened last Thursday. The one thing they can’t
say is the word “Panic.” They could put any other face on it but panic could be
the kiss of death. Thank goodness that GREED sometimes trumps PANIC! That may
have been what saved us. But maybe that is just a window into what is coming.
Could the unthinkable happen? The market may go up today, but a day does not
make a market. The overall outlook is not good no matter how everyone tries to
spin it.
Now the best thing that can happen is that I am wrong. But the numbers prove I am right. The direction proves I am right. The EVIDENCE proves I am right and soon the
REALITY will prove I am right. But I would much rather be wrong. I would much
rather whistle past the graveyard. I would much rather not like to see what I
see and have seen for quite some time. The next 6 months may be the most
volatile of our entire lifetimes and then who knows after that.
What happened to the GM commercial saying they paid back the
loan? It went bye bye because it was a lie. They paid themselves from other
loaned money. What a crock! The trickery that is going on today trumps anything
I have seen in my life. The books are no longer “Cooked” they are total fiction
and that will eventually explode. When? I don’t know. They have delayed it for
decades. But time is running out.
Now that does not mean you can’t make a FORTUNE right now.
Matter of fact, there has never been a better time to make fortunes. Money is
flying all over the place. That sounds like two conflicting statements but they
are not. This is what happens during times like this so you need to get your
share of what is on the table. Denial of reality will never make you money.
Understanding reality will make you a fortune. Stop chasing yesterdays’ fad and focus on what will unfold
in 1 year, 2 years, 5 years. I don’t know the exact moment this will all
happen, but when you have a 5 year horizon, you are likely to nail it. Just
assume we are playing “Musical Chairs” and make sure your are safe when the
music stops.
Life is measured by years. You have good years and not so
good years. Just make sure the years that are coming are your best years
because if they are not, they will likely be your worst.
Have a GREAT Day!
Rick Schwartz
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