Morning Folks!!
To understand this post you need to read this one that I
wrote in May first or it will have no value and why waste your time?
So we have the 15 second SuperBowl commercial with Jay, Dave
and Oprah and nobody can get the right answer so I will publish it here so they
get it. If Burger King went out of
business would McDonalds double their business? The answer is no. If the
Tonight Show has a weak host does that help Letterman? The answer is no.
Now without even knowing the real numbers I can tell you
that Conan did not help Dave. My guess is Letterman’s audience is getting
smaller. He has weak competition and that means the overall INTEREST LEVEL is
much lower and at 11:30 folks are looking for a new home. I like “Forensic
Files”. So a splintered audience is hurting Dave and will hurt Jay. So, just like Ali/Frazier
brought the game of boxing to new highs, so will this. Two Titans back fighting
it out for America’s favorite? Not exactly. Here is what I see and why they
would both did this. They are both in trouble. They are both scared. The 11:30
slot has been the prize of TV for my entire lifetime. But is it today?
Folks change habits over 7 months. This was a big habit to
break. Many broke it. I just
believe they are working with a smaller audience overall and that hurts their
pocketbook. This change could even collapse one or the other. See the equation
is no longer the same. Damage has been done. NBC looks like a bunch of fools
and Dave has plenty of baggage these days.
So while I was pretty certain about the post I made back in
May that pretty much unfolded as predicted, this one is much more murky. I don’t
have a clear vision of the overall outcome. It could go either way. My point is
while I explained in that last post about why this was related to domains and
honing your skills, this one is the opposite. The other was clear and that
presents a great opportunity. This one is not so clear and so it is an opportunity
worth walking away from. It is more of a gamble. The outcome can go many
different ways. So this is how I pick what business to get into, what domains
to buy, what real estate to choose. Clarity of how things will unfold. Then
just get to where the masses go before they even know they want to go there.
Have a GREAT Day!
Rick Schwartz
Jonathan
“just get to where the masses go before they even know they want to go there.”
Now that is good advice, along with second mouse gets the cheese.
Louise
Leno is going to wind up back on top!
Great advice:”pick what business to get into, what domains to buy.” I have a link to your blog – thanx!
Event Hire
your most boring post ever i think Rick.
very rare for you
Stephen Douglas
Leno has bad mojo, everyone thinks he’s a pig for skulking back to the Tonight Show when he failed at his 10pm slot, which didn’t help genius Conan at his Tonight Show debut.
Letterman is evenly strong, with his base staying the same.
WHAT I’M STATING HERE IS THE TRUE NETWORK AND ENTERTAINMENT UNDERSTANDING.
NBC blew it by moving Jay from the Tonight Show. It revealed Jay’s weaknesses. Conan has a big college audience, and was adjusting to the change until NBC wonks freaked about Jay’s numbers tumbling and affiliates whining.
Bottom line – NBC execs should be fired. Leno should have retired. Conan should have kept the Tonight Show, and fought it out with Kimmel and Letterman.
As far as what Rick’s saying here…I have no idea. But what I just wrote is exactly what is going on in the late night wars.
Ben Kross
I disagree Event Hire,
there is much between the lines.
Agree or no, the seminal line:
“get to where the masses go before they even know they want to go there” is still prescient and it does relate to the prior statements.
The article speaks to mainstream megaliths positioning based upon their management’s perceptions.
Perceive what you will, but be some years ahead of those perceptions and you have some less than boring consequences.
Jonathan
The USA has showed the world where the masses will go. That is”ON-LINE” Germany the UK domain values are rising for, com & country codes. France, Italy, Sweden, Spain is now where the inertia is being left behind by a digital generation. The U.S.A. example makes the tld’s a no brainer. Back to”get to where the masses go before they even no they want to go there” I cannot speak a word of Italian & and have the best Italian TLD portfolio of SEO generics. Italian language insurance.org carinsurance.com & net Motorcycleinsurance.com .net .it House insurance.it Life insurance.it Car sales.it luggage.com (valigeria) plus …. The best pension fund out there is available as a portfolio, before the masses get there as I cannot speak the language to do the SEO justice. You can own a part of Italy, mail me Rick.
Phil Thompson
Not boring at all Rick — I like your analysis, I think it’s spot on and I think it’s a lesson a lot of American businesses don’t get. In some cases competition is about splitting a dying market (think spitoons and horse buggies), but in other cases competition helps grow a market and increase product awareness. This is why I hate link farms that have generic ad links for non-related topics like insurance and mortgages — they slowly disappoint web surfers and erode the web experience for everyone.
Randy
First off, Letterman did gain views, millions in fact so you are wrong, so says the ratings but what do they know.
Secondly and I quote you” Clarity of how things will unfold. Then just get to where the masses go before they even know they want to go there.”
Does this apply to all the money you made recently in R.E.? Oh wait no that’s not right, where was the clarity then? The problem with most successful people is they live their life on that one moment in time they had it, thinking each decision there after is the right one, sad.
Howard
Conan had abysmal ratings because he was never funny or entertaining. Letterman CAN be funny, but not very often. Kimmel is funnier than the others, but tends to be sophomoric at times. The funniest man on late-nite T.V. is Craig Ferguson who should take over Letterman’s show at the earliest opportunity.
Anunt
So who do you guys like to watch late night…Conan, Leno, or Letterman?
ScottM
Rick, you left out the biggest moron, Jeffrey Zucker, CEO and President of NBC Universal. Same dipshit who served as Obama campaign’s defacto Minister of Propoganda during 2008 probably causing his victory. Zucker still allows the 4 worst journalists on the most piss-poor network, Keith Olberman, the worst journalist in the world, crybaby Barack brownnose Chris Mathews and horsebrain Mr. Ed Schultz and butch hots Rachel Maddow. What a collection of misfits, makes 1940’s yellow journalism in fashion on NBC and MSNBC. I hope Jay finds a home on Comedy Channel if NBC doesn’t work out again.
Michael Roberts
“So this is how I pick what business to get into, what domains to buy, what real estate to choose. Clarity of how things will unfold.”
No need to buy overpriced business books at the bookstore when this says it all.