Morning Folks!!
Last year at this time we were in a fog. Business fog. Business runs on preparing for tomorrow. Projecting where you are going and how fast you will get there. When you can’t do that, big problems will occur and they did and they have. Now things are much clearer. The fear of the fog may be gone but the moment of reality is soon to be. It is physically impossible to sustain the status quo. It’s going to blow up if we do. If things are done to make it worse, it will just blow up sooner. It will be uncontrollable once it starts.
The theme of this year’s TRAFFIC is “Survival”. Now that certainly is not a popular thing to trumpet. But what am I supposed to do? Be a cheerleader when I see disaster looming? NONSENSE! What value does that have to you?? It is always so much easier to just tell people what they want to hear. Blend in. Be a pal. Ruffle no feathers. Be a friend to everyone. Mr. popular. And exactly what value is in that? May as well have a meeting and watch a bunch of heads bob up and down in agreement cuz you have a company made up of spineless people afraid to speak out. Afraid and without authority to make a decision. The Sales Department is no longer in control even tho sales drive everything else. No sales = no company. The Advertising Department is no longer in charge of Advertising even tho the sales department needs that to help get the message out and reinforce what they do. Matter of fact, no department is in charge of anything. Lawyers and bean counters are. CEO's are paralyzed or figure heads. They report to the lawyers and bean counters. So how many sales exactly did the lawyers and bean counters make for you last year? But forget all that. That is the small problem close to home that you can actually control and do something about. Let's turn to what you can't control.
As I write this I just glanced to my right. Outside my room window is the Statue of Liberty. To me it represents a really tough time in America and the world. The struggles they had to endure with little more than the rags on their back and a great desire for a better life. For the first time in my lifetime, that “Better life” is in danger. That is what I see. I can’t help seeing it. I have seen it and written about it for quite a while. Some point to the stock market going up. But when you peel it back and see why, it is the weakness of the dollar and real estate market that are driving it. Safety is driving it. What will happen next? Pretty easy one, reality will set in next year, it is llike going to Vegas and playing Craps, the house is gonna rake in your money……AGAIN.
And while the dollar is in trouble, they are also in demand. Deflation still is the beast even tho they have been fighting inflation for years and years. Decades. The point is, this CRAP is all connected and things are fragile. The industry is shrinking. The weak are falling off on a daily basis. Just disappearing from the scene. They make no announcements. They are just gone. There are those that are running a negative cash flow. It is a matter of time. 100,000 crappy domain names, better trim them sails. 98,000 are going to drop. But not to worry, isn’t it about time you realized it is a liability and not an asset? TIMBER!
Last year I made no points for talking about “Beyond PPC”. But was it the right call given that you have seen your earnings erode away??? Not popular, made me no points, but right on the money. YOUR MONEY! So as an industry, do we want popular propaganda with various agendas or a vision of where we are going that may or may not be right? But I sign my name to what I see, to what I believe, to what I do, to how I see it all unfold. I take the slings and arrows and live by one sentence that usually win over most reasonable folks at some point “Time is my Best Ally”.
We are all here because we saw something before most others. In life you can be one step ahead or one step behind. It truly is a choice. That is why God invented the Ostrich. He also invented the Eagle. They have no choice, they are what they are. WE DO!
Have a GREAT Day!
Safe Travels
Rick Schwartz
Robbie
News out today here in the UK, we are still in recession. The worst and longest for 50yrs!
Anthony
Rick, excellent post … AGAIN …
I got my Rickism fix thanks :)
Rob Sequin
Thanks.
Your next post should be how to survive. Maybe even speak about it at TRAFFIC.
What percent of our investment funds should be in gold, treasury inflation protected securities, non-dollar assets, real estate, domains etc?
See you soon.
owen frager
Just look at the analysts call on Marchex today as”unstainable”– all those premium domains, all that investment, the sales forces. the conferences, the pr.. and you think YOU can make it?
Truthfully the same people could have picked one domain and built a fortune that WAS sustainable.
Makes you think about Rick’s post with a little more anxiety.
Name Infringment
@ Robbie
Did you know that Jamie Archer can file a lawsuit against you for registering the name.
michael todaro
as robert duvall said to mr. wayne…”i call that bold talk for a one eyed fat man” … but as usual, john wayne stuck to his guns and won.
Kevin
Everything is perspective and forward thinking though.
Some see the glass now as”empty” and are panicking, while others see the same”empty glass” and that it’s created an opportunity to sell bottled water.
Life and business were never meant to be an easy roll of the dice. Both are hard and will shake you and take you and test you to your limits. This is one of those times in history where life’s teacher just told the entire planet,”It’s testing time students!”
Some of us older entrepreneurs are blessed by the fact that we’ve been here since the 1950’s just as technology came into play and began to completely transform the world like never before.
We’ve seen what America and other great countries have done with all this mind boggling technology over that time to change the world. We know our strengths and our capabilities to harness it to build new enterprises. We know what is possible through innovation and doing things in brand new ways. That provides a lot of self confidence and assurance that any challenge can be met and conquered no matter how hard.
In domaining this year has been like an earthquake. Complete upheaval for nearly everyone, where values tanked, buyers evaporated, income went way down, and all of a sudden the realization sank in that this is no longer the”fast and easy way to riches” any more and it’s now a hard business just like any other out there and subject to the same kind of external market forces that can change and weaken everything you thought was a constant and solid foundation. I’d say this was the year of the”Uh Oh” moment for everyone. Even the strongest among us experienced that. Because it’s not good having millions if everyone in your marketplace that you made those millions from is now having problems. You aren’t the only client at the PPC company. They need all their clients to do well to keep their business strong. So if that dynamic changes it will nail you too.
One way or another we’re all interconnected, the big boys too. You might be the shiny fruit on the tree still but not for long if all the other fruit on the tree below you is going bad and getting mushy. When there is something wrong at the tree’s roots and it’s not getting the water and nutrition it needs, the whole tree goes down.
( CONTINUED >>> )
Kevin
( CONTINUED FROM ABOVE)
I deal with all levels of people in this industry and I assure everyone reading this post, even the biggest players are rethinking strategies, looking for new ideas, looking to sell some domains to raise”security” cash, and are not as confident sounding as in the past. These are the toughest of times and people at all levels of wealth and success are very concerned.
So how do we get out of this mess? How do we reinvigorate domaining as well as other parts of the economy. No one knows. Not even the brightest minds out there are saying unified words. Heck, there might not even be an answer yet or at all. What’s worked in the past doesn’t seem to be doing the job this time.
When rates are at 0% at the Fed there’s no where else to go. The backup plan of printing trillions of dollars has only slowed the pain, but not gotten our heart beating strong like it was before.
Maybe it’s not an economic fix at all. Maybe its a human fix we need. Tens of Trillions of dollars of wealth have evaporated over the past 2 years. People are freaked out like I’ve never seen in my lifetime. The core wealth asset on the planet, real estate is no longer a safe and trusted financial friend. Of all the creators of security and money, property was always the surest bet. But that is no more. The ground under our feet was shaken and cracked with the destructive power of a 10.0 earthquake. So it’s time to move on. We’re all screwed together at least. Time to brainstorm new ideas, create new income and wealth vehicles, work hard, recover one day at a time, and keep a positive attitude for the future. Sometimes, the human fix called fortitude and perseverence is the only fix that will work. Pure human energy to carry on no matter what is the only thing left in the”fix it” box.
As an entrepreneur, I’ve always lived my life with the confidence that when you lose your money in business, you have to be able to still take that long walk on the beach with only a few bucks left in your pocket, keep a smile on your face and in your heart, look up at the sky, see that magnificent ocean view, the calming sound of the waves reaching the shoreline, and the sun’s glorious energy filling the blue sky and say”Hey at least I still got you God!” And appreciate all the incredible things in life that don’t cost a penny to enjoy each day. That’s having peace of mind. And at the end of the day, and the end of your life, ultimately that’s all that really matters.
Dave Wrixon aka Rubber Duck
With military diesel at $400 dollars a gallon they don’t need to come after you, they can destroy your economy by just keeping your guys driving around in circles.
Be interesting to know how much the Taleban actually pay in a part of the world which is awash with oil!
sammyr
Cheney likes it when your guys drive in circles @400 gallon. The oil is all his. He stole it. As long as the war continues no one will ever find out. That’s why he’s bullish on a never-ending confrontation.
BullS
A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist
sees the opportunity in every difficulty.”
Kevin
Well said BullS!
nSathees
Half filled glass of water is on the table.
Are you going to worry about the half is missing or are you going to be happy about the half is left in it?
Choice is yours . . .
owen frager
The world will wake up when the truth be told on Nov 6:
http://www.apple.com/trailers/independent/collapse/
Steve Fox
Bush got us into this mess!
The democrats stood idly by and did nothing. They are all puppets of businesses. The citizens need to organize and demand change or vote them out. The Republicans got the message last election. Well half of them. I just checked my cpc for my site, http://scrabblecheat.com , and I got .14 cents a click. Enough to buy a hamburger at the end of the day. So I turn on the news and all I see is Obama and his people trying to do away with fox news. Won’t even let them in the news conference. What a joke.
LS Morgan
This has nothing to do with Democrats or Republicans. Partisan politics is a sideshow to the real issue.
For the past (X) decades, Americans have been spending without the slightest notion that the bill would eventually come due. We essentially set the world on its ear with our manufacturing and innovation up until about the 1960’s or so, developed a great credit line and ever since then, have been spending like a college kid with his first $5,000 Mastercard.
The piper is at the porch.
Domains?
Thankfully, I’m a guy who’s always viewed domains as businesses, rather than speculative tulips to trade around to greater fools. To those who think that staid ownership- absent effort- is a sustainable model, I don’t care HOW lucky you were by getting in this game early and securing amazing web properties. Domain names are tools. Thusfar, you’ve enjoyed profit by maximizing their inherent gravitational pull. The next chapter is unlocking all that potential we know exists, but takes work to achieve.
kfink
Kevin @ BigTicketDoamains.com – You wrote some of the most calming, inspiring and TRUE words I have read yet. Thank you.