Morning Folks!!
The Big 3 are Dead and replaced by Google, Microsoft and
Apple.
That small sentence is a mouthful and basically describes
2009 and the shift that has occurred. We are about to watch an epic battle
between 3 Titans. Apple is the wildcard and Microsoft is losing market share when
it comes to their software as Apple gains and Apple will continue to gain and
erode Microsoft in that arena. Google will always be vulnerable.
Microsoft is likely to lose a large share of their
environmental Windows audience to Apple. By this time next year Apple market share will reach double digits. If will control 25% within 3 years. That is one hell of a comeback! But “Office” will continue to lead on both platforms.
Bing will be a pretty nasty thorn in the side of Google as Microsoft sees what
is happening and makes the shift. Bing is better in some areas and improving in others.
It would take all day for me to go into all this in depth.
But what I wanted to point out is the interesting dynamic that is manifesting
itself here between these 3 powerhouses of this century. This is something to pay attention to
and study. GM, Ford, Chrysler........the big 3 no more. Replaced by Google, Microsoft and Apple.
Of Google, Microsoft and Apple, I see Apple as eventually coming out #1. They are the IDEA people and IDEAS is what will win.
Have a GREAT Day!
Rick Schwartz
owen frager
Great post. I have crossed link this post to one of mine, because it answers a question from a reader yesterday:
http://fragerfactor.blogspot.com/2008/01/apple-stock-forecast-to-hit-300-analyst.html
This post on my blog is the #1 read article thanks to Google. The huge interest validates your theory as one can with their own eyes just by walking around an Apple store and listening to the conversations.
I reiterate that it is IDEAS and the Internet that have brought the economy down. But that’s a longer discussion. If you are up for it- see me out when you are in Florida and run into the Lexus with the license plates”Ideas”
Kevin
The biggest challenges Microsoft faces are the inevitable migration of the PC operating system to a server based system. All you’ll need in the future will be a super simple basic OS and a web browser on your PC. All the software apps you use will be remote hosted and you’ll just store your data files on your computer.
Microsoft’s biggest cash cows have been Windows and Office. And both are going to begin being displaced in the near future. In fact Microsoft is already gearing up to transform Office to the web.
Apple’s biggest challenge is itself, especially after its key leader Jobs passes on. Apple depends on constant innovation to keep ahead of the pack. But how many home runs can a company keep hitting out of the ballpark? They have to outdo themselves every year and that’s no easy task since they are their own competition. Also how much coolness is left to be discovered? They’ve pretty much cornered the market on cool design and products, but can it get even better than it is? The iPhone is so loaded down with a zillion features already it’s almost beyond human comprehension how they do it.
Google’s challenge is the fact it’s only really killer apps are search, it’s advertising network, and perhaps gmail. All of those are the type of businesses that can be displaced overnight by something”wow” out of the blue. Look how fast Google got”Binged”. And advertisers are about as loyal as the next best deal they can find. gMail could be wiped by the next wowMail.
So bottom line the corporate titan dynamic is extremely dependent on technology now, and the industrial age is behind us. History has clearly proven technology can change overnight. Look how far we’ve come in just 100 years, from riding horses, to gas engine cars, to now hybrids and electric cars, and soon we’ll probably all have flying cars like the Jetson’s. LOL.
The biggest nightmre the CEO’s have at Google, Microsoft and Apple is waking up to some incredible new technology being discovered that will impact their entire model.
And each CEO knows Google, Microsoft and Apple all started out with just 2 brilliant minded geeks doing technology tinkering in garages with no capital at all.
robb
Facebook might also be included in there eventually. They are huge and collect a lot of personal info, and get a lot of repeat visits. A few tweaks or innovations to the site (like some kind of twitter feature) and they could really become a force. They really benefited from being first in the space, hard to see another site knocking them out now.
Donnie Goodwin
Rick this is a good analysis. I wonder about Office. I have been moving to a free open source program Open Office, available at openoffice.org. It does all that Office does and …IT’S FREE. The same program is available from Sun Micro Systems, where it’s called Star Office. These programs are engineered by a large community of code geeks who are zealots…THEY ARE FREE! As time goes by how will Microsoft compete with that? Sooo, I differ with your conclusion that includes Microsoft. For the future I’d put Sun in that spot. To continue your analogy, I’ll predict that Microsoft is the American Motors.
crinux
From what I’ve seen so far, Bing is domainer friendly, as opposed to Google or Yahoo, maybe that will outweigh the balance in its favor, as ultimately domainers control a sizeable chunk of the internet traffic. This may be the best Microsoft move in decades. I’m quite embarrassed to say this, as I was always against monopoly and voted with the underdogs. Maybe the IDEA hit Microsoft in the head with a BING!
crinux.com
Dave Wrixon
Sorry, Rick, but this is a global industry and it won’t be dominated by a US Cartel.