Morning Folks!!
We are at a dire point economically and the worst part is the fallout from
all the closing and layoffs have yet to be felt. If 1/2 million people get laid
off THIS WEEK it takes months before that really impacts the system. Some will
impact immediately. The vacation, the eating out, the gifts, and then the
important stuff follows later. You can't put a happy face on this. We are in the
midst of a total economic and banking meltdown that will melt everything in it's path like lava flowing as a river after the volcano explodes. I watch this day
by day and the events that are happening are so big and happening so furiously
fast that the news can't even keep up with it. Each passing day things are
exponentially worse. With taxes right around the corner, the pain is about to be
compounded.
all the closing and layoffs have yet to be felt. If 1/2 million people get laid
off THIS WEEK it takes months before that really impacts the system. Some will
impact immediately. The vacation, the eating out, the gifts, and then the
important stuff follows later. You can't put a happy face on this. We are in the
midst of a total economic and banking meltdown that will melt everything in it's path like lava flowing as a river after the volcano explodes. I watch this day
by day and the events that are happening are so big and happening so furiously
fast that the news can't even keep up with it. Each passing day things are
exponentially worse. With taxes right around the corner, the pain is about to be
compounded.
So we are left with a couple of doors. If you think things will turn around
by summer, then door #1 is for you. If you think things will be fixed by summer but
you are not sure which YEAR that summer will occur in then door #2 is for you. I
am a door #2 guy because I have yet to see anything to give me CONFIDENCE.
by summer, then door #1 is for you. If you think things will be fixed by summer but
you are not sure which YEAR that summer will occur in then door #2 is for you. I
am a door #2 guy because I have yet to see anything to give me CONFIDENCE.
I remember in 2000 and using the word 'Collapse' to describe what was to
come. Most thought that was much too strong a word. It wasn't as we look back.
Today we face something much more serious and 'Meltdown' is the new word and I
could only hope to have been content with collapse. 2008 was a collapse and
2009-2010 is going to be the meltdown. I believe day to day life as we know it
is in jeopardy and that is something I have NEVER seen before. Never felt
before. Never had an indication of before.
come. Most thought that was much too strong a word. It wasn't as we look back.
Today we face something much more serious and 'Meltdown' is the new word and I
could only hope to have been content with collapse. 2008 was a collapse and
2009-2010 is going to be the meltdown. I believe day to day life as we know it
is in jeopardy and that is something I have NEVER seen before. Never felt
before. Never had an indication of before.
Privately I started to write about this last summer. I am sure at that time
even my closest confidants thought I exaggerated things. Looking back they know
I got it right. I said early on that Main St. and Malls and every town in
America was going to look different. Well, it is only a few months later and
here we are.
even my closest confidants thought I exaggerated things. Looking back they know
I got it right. I said early on that Main St. and Malls and every town in
America was going to look different. Well, it is only a few months later and
here we are.
Today for the first time I am using the word meltdown to describe what I
see coming. But this meltdown could become political as well as economic as we
have seen in peaceful Iceland. This meltdown may not send a 'Coming soon' note.
It may just show up on our doorstep one day when you wake up in the
morning.
see coming. But this meltdown could become political as well as economic as we
have seen in peaceful Iceland. This meltdown may not send a 'Coming soon' note.
It may just show up on our doorstep one day when you wake up in the
morning.
All you can do to prepare is to pay every bill you have off and make sure
that your monthly 'Nut' is as low as it can possibly be. If the common wisdom is
to hoard cash, then your job is to question the common wisdom. Your job is to
always question the common wisdom. The 'Experts' keep being 'Surprised.' How the
hell can an 'Expert' be 'Surprised?' He is paid to be in front of things not be
surprised by events and be behind the curve.
that your monthly 'Nut' is as low as it can possibly be. If the common wisdom is
to hoard cash, then your job is to question the common wisdom. Your job is to
always question the common wisdom. The 'Experts' keep being 'Surprised.' How the
hell can an 'Expert' be 'Surprised?' He is paid to be in front of things not be
surprised by events and be behind the curve.
There are things a government can do to help. There are also things a
government can do to make things exponentially worse. The problems are so deep,
so systemic, so out of control, that you really have to stretch your thinking to
believe this can be fixed in a short time.
government can do to make things exponentially worse. The problems are so deep,
so systemic, so out of control, that you really have to stretch your thinking to
believe this can be fixed in a short time.
567 Circuit City stores are about to be vacated and empty. 371 Linens and
Things. Hundreds of other stores with every brand you can think of will be
shrinking. Macy's closing at least 12 stores. When do you think these properties
will be occupied again? By summer???? I see more of you going over to door #2.
Smart move if you ask me. I can't even describe what I see coming. You can't say
this stuff out loud. But that won't stop the lava.
Things. Hundreds of other stores with every brand you can think of will be
shrinking. Macy's closing at least 12 stores. When do you think these properties
will be occupied again? By summer???? I see more of you going over to door #2.
Smart move if you ask me. I can't even describe what I see coming. You can't say
this stuff out loud. But that won't stop the lava.
Have a GREAT Day!
Rick Schwartz
Sergej Lebedew
Very wise words Rick!
Best regards from Germany,
Sergej
Terence Chna
Ahhhh, now we know where all that funny money paid for domains came from besides the hacking of the PPC system.
The coming years will be an age of correction, more so for America unfortunately than Asia.
Live poor, that’s a new experience that can help adjust our twisted minds on what true wealth and happiness really is.
Jeff Schneider
I have been in accordance with your views and choice of door #2 observations as long or maybe longer than you have.
I enjoy immensely your super intuitive observations, You have been spot on. You are to be commended for your truthfull observations and honesty about what you see. This all takes a lot of guts.
Thank You,
Rob Sequin
Rick,
What are your thoughts on this stimulus package that is about to be passed?
Is it a fix that will at least cap the unemployment and save us enough so we just stay in a recession or is it just more money that will be pissed away with little or no effect?
Gazzip
Meltdown is the right word for it, that’s exactly what is happening and it’s going to get far worse when all those people loosing their jobs start loosing their homes.
I’d be surprised if things even pick up much before late 2010 to mid 2011.
I really do feel for the thousands of families that will loose everything in the coming year or two.
Very sad state of affairs.
Anunt Patel
Door#1 should start buying stocks.
Door#2 should short stocks.
I pick door#3…do nothing…stay on vacation!
Ari Shohat
Time to grow your own vegetables in your backyard, if you can keep onto it.
bob
Right on Rick, this has been a long time coming. We take so much for granted in America, what if you went to your local supermarket to find it closed… so you drive 2 blocks and find another shut down and another this could happen but most believe it will not.
namer
“If 1/2 million people get laid off THIS WEEK”
This indeed is great news for so many, on both sides of the fence. It’s times like these to live for.
Just think about the new opportunities this creates. All you need to do is have your eyes open.
Pat Davies
I like the closing remark…after all the doom and gloom
“Have a GREAT Day!”
Danny Pryor
Hi Rick,
Good observations, as always; I wanted to add something, however. The meltdown actually started in September 2007. Part of our content development is advertising design for the real estate industry, which came to a screeching halt at the end of November 2007, after we watched prices drop from”mid-500’s” to the”high-400’s”, then to the”mid-300’s”. In South Florida, Broward homes that sold in ’05 for $800k are now going for about $300. That unfathomable loss of equity was the trigger that led to the second meltdown. Steve Forbes even predicted it at the 2007 Miami TRAFFIC when he warned the Fed had to tighten monetary policy or a second”blood bath” would happen. The second blood bath DID happen, exactly as he predicted. Then the job layoffs started. Loss of equity on the real-property front, then loss of dollar valuation, then the loss of jobs; stagflation is a word that can’t be applied because prices are going up (whether the gov’t reports it or not – I see it at Publix every week) – and stagflation only happens with increasing prices and a stagnant economy. This economy is shriveling like a decomposing corpse. Bailout plans are a problem because they don’t seem to promote the accountability or transparency so necessary to avoid another Madoff crisis, which also created a potent loss of equity. Media in South Florida were laying off reporters, assignment editors and technicians as early as late ’07, but that was not being reported because there were no reporters left. Now the New York Times is selling its building, Post Newsweek is in dire straits and there is a heavy ticket being handed the populace at a time when nobody can afford the margin-call on the loss of bounty. Meltdown? I prefer to think of it as an evaporation. It’s a frightening trend … I’ll take Door #2, as well … and if anybody has an idea of whether there’s a Door #3, please let me know.
Jeremy Sviben
Rick and All,
I have never posted to this forum but Rick your comments
made me realize this might be a good opportunity to share. My main business is outdoor lighting.I am also silent partners in a golf course a fire protection company and various real estate investments.I also am in the process of having a electrical part process patented.And my latest project (which I am researching now)involves setting up a internet marketing company This has given me the unique perspective of working with executives and business owners and most importantly front line employees. The executives in most cases are at the top of there field and the front line employees have tremendous heart (the kind you can not buy) most of them will gladly talk economic war stories. My market is Primarily New Jersey and my sphere of friends and colleagues are from England to Canada to the Middle east.What makes New Jersey unique and relevant to my point is its diversity from it’s ethnicity to it’s ethics to it’s geography. Most do not realize New Jersey has one of the largest native forest reserves in the world.When most people think of New Jersey I bet the garden State doesn’t come to mind which is our slogan. Could this attributed to the media. New Jersey to me is a mini America.
Please…Take a step back for a moment. I know the current media is really reporting what is going and we as human beings are prone to gravitate towards the dramatic. The job losses are real numbers and the”wall street people” did not have the guts that there suits and cars and fancy homes made them appear to have. So where are we as a economy. This is a question that I wish the media would quantify more in there reporting. Most do not realize the current stimulus/bailout when compared to the 1950’s is less when you factor inflation(Rick let’s cover deficit spending in another post). The job losses which are extremely painful to watch and I want to shout out the T.V. or at friends going through it why didn’t you save more (single parents and sick parent care givers aside). The total job losses will probably end up around the 1990 recession.
The (catalyst) reinvestment. Most people do not realize there is 1-2 trillion dollars sitting on the sidelines (money markets accounts)… Where is your money rick? Waiting to be invested. Think solar panels, health care, nano technolgy keep thinking. I am here on Ricks blog looking for something to invest in.
“I am America” looking thinking trying not quitting. The best thing to come out of the last boom bust cycle (the byproduct of freewill) Is a return to ethics and international human respect. I do not do business with any body who even tells white lies. I look forward to the next growth cycle. This is my third down cycle and I am most excited about starting to work with the rest of the world to take care of our planet and each others family’s while still making a modest profit to help others who need to learn to help themselves
Dutch Boyd
I think you’re spot on, Rick. I heard somewhere that Rockefeller quadrupled his wealth during the depression. Going to be a lot of opportunity in the next few years, not only here in the US but globally. Just gotta make the right moves…
James
Rick,
I’ve just had a guest poster on Namecake, who talks about the Implosion of Domaining. It’s a very good read and comes quite close to mirrorring your sentiments about the industry. I think you’ll find it interesting:
http://www.namecake.com/are-you-ready-for-the-implosion-of-domaining-guest-essay-seabass-of-namepros/