Morning folks!!
Well we are into November. The home stretch. The retailers and their suppliers around the globe depend on what happens in the next 10 weeks to make their year. Each Christmas business and industry has TIMIDLY increased their online spending but still have yet to take that real PLUNGE. Each year I wonder if this will be the year? The year that they can no longer ignore the dollars spent on the net that out produce the dollars spent on the newspapers, TV and other media. Each year we make progress and each year all the analysts are surprised. (I Can't believe they pay these people to be 'Surprised.' Don't they get paid to predict significant changes before they occur?)
So will THIS be the online Christmas many have always expected? Will the same sorry folks be marched out to tell you not to spend online? How dangerous it is? Marched out like a political attack machine because they know their days are numbered? These people who are funded by those with most to lose. Is this the year they get it? Can they figure out that Google is approaching $800/share for a reason? That they are the fastest growing, most valuable company in the world for a reason? Can they figure out that the newspapers are not only going down in circulation but in readerehip as well?? Same with other mediums. And talk about 'Stickyness'.......Imagine how many MINUTES someone used to read a newspaper or magazine and how many minutes they read now?
There are so many invisible things going on it is hard to keep up with and it will take years for them to even ask the right questions let alone report on it. Imagine the day when companies begin to announce that more than 50% of all their ad budgets will be spent online??!! That day is coming. There is no question about it and it will be an avalanche the likes we have never seen before. This is an inevitability. It could happen sooner than anyone even expected and then the guys we pay to get these things right and predict these events, will be 'Surprised'!!
So for all you analysts that are going to be surprised.....don't be. I just told you what was going to happen. Now figure it out for yourselves and alert your clients. If you don't do that.....prepared to be SURPRISED and then go get a job you can actually do!!
Have a GREAT Day!
Rick Schwartz
Kevin
I bought the print edition of the Sun-Sentinel this week. Haven’t done that in a long time since I usually read that newspaper’s online edition.
I was surprised to see they’ve shrunk the dimensions to probably 2/3rd of what it used to be. It was noticablly smaller.
The classifieds ad section was about 25% of what it used to be and there weren’t nearly as many auto dealer ads. They used to always run full pagers in this paper.
In fact it seemed like every section of the paper had fewer articles and display ads.
So all one has to do is pickup your local paper and you can clearly see the Internet is the place to be to get the most for your ad dollars.
I predict most newspapers are going to stop publishing print editions completely within the next decade. Eventually what I see is every house having a dedicated newspaper size ultra high res LCD screen in their homes and then they’ll be able to touch screen in any newspaper’s retreival code in the world and the digital paper will appear and look just like the real deal.
It’s just a matter of time at this point, and our grandkids will surely be saying”What’s a newspaper?”
owen frager
Great post Rick. I can tell you they ARE buying shoes. My CP{A says the growth rate has been over 50% per year triggered by Christmas and not just for my site but for the sites its leads feed like shoebuy and zappos
Howard Bowling
Really, what is a NewsPaper?
I just realized I havent picked one up in over a year, maybe two. The last one was a USAToday which I read online now. Even local news is much better online now. I have noticed recently all local TV stations heavily advertising their websites. I think they finaly figured out they can make money off their websites and their ROI is probably much better. I think this local push to the web will be the driving force you are reffering to, Rick.
Nick
Hey Rick – you have focused on the real issue, which is”inevitability.” Older folks, most of them anyway, do not realize that people under 25 have never picked up a Yellow Pages in their lives. Google is a verb, and where I live newspaper editors are getting the axe 10 weeks before Christmas. Cheers.
DomainerPro
True, I never buy a newspaper anymore. Once upon a time I used to read the San Francisco Chronicle and Time Magazine. Now I read Sfgate.com and News.bbc.co.uk. Though I still buy Business 2.0 magazine (for as long as it lasts) because I like reading it in the bathroom, ha ha. Kevin you might be right about everyone one day having the giant interactive LCD screen, but there’s nothing like a magazine in your hand when you’re on the pot. Anyway, the world is changing under the feet of the older generation and they may never realize or accept it. It’s the new generation that’s grown up with the internet who will totally blow away all our assumptions about information. Even we who think we are forward-thinking will probably be stunned by the directions in which our children will take technology.
Jamie Risdon Lentzner
Here in California they are trying to make us feel bad for spending online (I have a biz that sells heavily online). Anyway, they would like us the consumers to voluntarily add up what we buy online and send a check to the goverment for un-paid taxes. I had to get off the floor from laugh so hard when I heard that one!